3 dark horse Deadline candidates for Bucs
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PITTSBURGH -- The Pirates who have been traded and are drawing heavy trade interest are clearly known.
The big two -- Adam Frazier and Tyler Anderson -- have been dealt, and Clay Holmes found a new home in New York. Now, right-hander Richard Rodríguez (closer/setup) and lefty Chasen Shreve (on a one-year deal) are the most likely to make Bucs general manager Ben Cherington’s phone buzz.
But what about the guys who are longshots to be traded? There are a few players who have been linked loosely to trade talks, and maybe they’re worth considering in the ever-unpredictable Deadline market.
Here are three dark horse trade candidates on the Pirates’ roster and why they will or won’t be dealt before 4 p.m. ET on Friday.
Why it could work: Polanco had one of the worst offensive seasons in the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign, and he was hitting nearly as poorly through a similar sample size to begin the 2021 season. However, things have ticked up recently; since the All-Star break, the right fielder went 7-for-28 with a double, a triple and a home run while getting on base at a .353 clip entering Thursday's series finale against the Brewers. His contact has also gotten much better this season, with his strikeout rate dropping from 37.4% in 2020 to 28.3% in ‘21.
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So could a team take a flier on a hitter with 97th percentile max exit velocity who is chasing fewer pitches and is an above-average runner? It’s not off the table. Plus, with it being more and more likely that the Pirates will exercise Polanco’s $3 million buyout at the end of the season, they could be willing to eat virtually all of his salary to trade him by Friday afternoon.
Why it could not: The bigger concern is whether any contending team will want to clear an active roster spot to give Polanco a shot. It’s unlikely he’ll stick in right field for a team loaded with talent, as his arm is a liability despite his average outfield defense. Polanco has an average max-effort arm strength (top 10% of tracked throws) of 80.9 mph this season, which ranks 103rd of 111 outfielders with at least 10 max-effort throws this year.
Sure, his power potential -- especially from the left side of the plate -- is high. But do clubs think he could have enough impact, even in a short run?
Why it could work: Stratton is having the best season of his career. His career 1.1 bWAR equals the 1.1 bWAR he’s produced this season, largely in long relief for the Pirates. He’s pitched anywhere from the fourth inning to the ninth inning. He’s faced one batter and he’s pitched 3 2/3 innings for a save.
Stratton’s consistency mixed with his versatility of roles speaks for itself. There’s also the fact that he has starting experience. If a contending team hits a rough patch in the final two months of the regular season and wants to be competitive in a bullpen game or two, Stratton’s mix can carry more than a few innings. Not to mention: 2.58 ERA.
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Why it could not: Years of control matter to a team like the Bucs, and Stratton still has a few, as he's eligible for free agency in 2024. There’s no real impetus for them to unload the right-hander if the deal isn’t right. Sure, his value is high, but you also need to cover innings over the next year and change before Pittsburgh's top prospects try to come up and make a difference.
Do you bank on the groove he’s in carrying over into next year? It’s a question the Pirates' front office will have to ask itself.
Why it could work: It works in one sense: Clubs want good relievers, especially those with nasty stuff. Bednar owns a high-90s fastball, a sweeping 70s curveball that tunnels off it and a splitter he picked up from Hideo Nomo. For a 35th-rounder who didn’t even headline the package from the Padres in the Joe Musgrove deal last offseason, that’s not a bad set of tools.
The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported on Thursday that Bednar is one of three Pirates bullpen pieces drawing interest next to Rodríguez and Stratton. But ...
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Why it could not: Ask yourself one question. Why would Pittsburgh want to deal him? There’s no need to do so. He’s not a free agent until 2027. He could be a future closer or eighth-inning setup man. He’s a hometown kid.
It seems much, much more likely that he won’t be dealt. Cherington said the phone is always on and he doesn’t like to think of any player as untouchable in trade talks, but that doesn’t mean everyone is on the block. This kind of a move would take a desperate offer from a contending club, which this writer finds hard to see culminating in a deal for Bednar.