Here’s what to expect from Pirates in 2024

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MIAMI, Fla. -- The Pirates started 2023 with a 20-8 record, and they finished on a 31-28 stretch over the final two months of the season. The middle portion of the campaign sunk any playoff hopes, though, and they finished 76-86. That still was a 14-win improvement compared to 2022.

In 2024, the goal is to take that next step and prove they can play winning baseball for six months and not just three.

There will be some new faces and some players in new spots in 2024. Oneil Cruz is back after missing almost all of 2023. Henry Davis is moving behind the plate. The outfield is playing some musical chairs with Michael A. Taylor added to the fold, moving Jack Suwinski to primarily left field and Bryan Reynolds mostly to right. Jared Triolo has taken over second base, and Jared Jones is the first of the team’s big pitching prospects to get a Major League nod.

So as the Pirates prepare for a season of heightened expectations, let’s look at some of the main storylines for this year, as well as make some predictions.

What needs to go right? Starting pitching needs to step up
The Pirates have a newly extended All-Star at the top of their rotation in Mitch Keller, and plenty of uncertainty afterwards. The team’s had success with soft-tossing lefty reclamation projects recently, and it has two more in Martín Pérez and Marco Gonzales this year. After that, it’s plenty of young arms, some of which have a bit of Major League experience (Luis Ortiz, Quinn Priester), and some of which have none (Paul Skenes, Jared Jones). Keller alone can’t carry this rotation, so three or four pitchers are going to need to step up to at least get the ball to the bullpen, which is probably the strength of this staff.

The great unknown: Can Oneil Cruz live up to the hype?
Cruz has perhaps the most boundless potential of any Pirate since Andrew McCutchen broke into the league in 2009. There are also plenty of questions surrounding Cruz -- namely his defense and whether he can stay healthy. In regards to the latter, he’s played without restriction this spring after missing almost all of 2023 with a fractured left ankle. Defensively, he’s moving well in the field, but it hasn’t always been pretty. If Cruz lives up to the hype and stays healthy, he could be a 30-homer, 30-steal candidate while also addressing the team’s biggest holes in the lineup last year: a shortstop and a leadoff hitter. Just how close will he come to reaching that potential?

The team’s MVP will be … Ke'Bryan Hayes
Hayes finally put a Gold Glove in the trophy case, but the more important development for him last year was his extended run of success at the plate. In 71 games from the start of June to the end of the season, Hayes hit .307 with 13 home runs and an .862 OPS. He followed that up with 21 hits this spring, the most in the Grapefruit League. If Hayes can provide the same level of offense he did over the closing months of 2023 over a full season, on top of his elite defense, he could be an All-Star and get some MVP consideration.

The team’s Cy Young will be … Mitch Keller
Keller and David Bednar are the two safest picks here, and perhaps I’m taking the easy way out by focusing on last year’s All-Stars. But there are a lot of questions in this rotation outside of Keller, and he’s reliable. Perhaps Jones could be a very dark horse here, or Paul Skenes just blows the doors off PNC Park when he gets called up. For now, though, I’ll stick with the guy who set a franchise record for most strikeouts by a right-hander last season.

One bold prediction: Jared Jones will compete for Rookie of the Year
Jones forced the Pirates' hand this spring to add him to the Opening Day roster. How much of that momentum will carry over into the regular season? He’s going to have a head start on many of the other contenders for the award, and he certainly has some of the best stuff in the organization. If he can continue to minimize walks and regroup quickly when he gets in a jam, then he’s got a real shot at being the first Pirates pitcher to win NL Rookie of the Year.