Inbox: Which Draft pick offers 2nd-rd. value?

We’re kind of at an interesting juncture in the 2021 season. On the amateur side, while there are still exciting NCAA postseason games going on, along with some late high school action, most Draft prospects have wrapped up their seasons with the Draft just over four weeks away. On the Minor League side of things, we now have over a month of performances to look at, and while you don’t want to draw too many conclusions from that, it is exciting to have real data to consider when looking at how top prospects are performing.

We live in both these worlds, especially now, in MLB Pipeline land. I’ve used that duality to split this week’s Pipeline Inbox in half, with two Draft-related questions and a pair about pro prospects.

I’m a Pirates fan and I’m looking for some hope because we can’t screw this pick up. This is a 2 parter. With there not being a consensus first pick like a Rutschman/ Torkelson type, does that mean none of the top 5-6 group are at their level or are they all at that level? And I know you guys have said the 2-4 rounder group is real deep, but do you have any names for us Pirate fans to look out for at our #37 pick? -- Eric R.

Best early 2nd rd picks to use extra slot $ on? -- @eYARKulation

Jim and I tackled that first question on this week’s Pipeline Podcast and I added on the second one because, at least to me, they are related. You’ve undoubtedly heard me or Jim, or both of us in concert (Jim does a very nice job harmonizing) talking about how when you pick at the very top of the Draft, you take who you think is the best player on the board. But what happens if there isn’t a clear-cut choice? And I’m not talking in terms of external opinions. What if you don’t have a consensus within your Draft room?

Now, I’m not saying that’s definitely where the Pirates will be on July 11, the first night of the 2021 Draft. But it wouldn’t surprise anybody if that’s what transpires. There certainly hasn’t been one player who has run away with the title of the top player in this class. So this could be one of those instances where the Pirates take whichever player in their pool of options (For now, I’ll include Marcelo Mayer, Jordan Lawlar, Henry Davis, Jack Leiter and maybe Kahlil Watson in that basket) will give them the biggest savings at 1-1, a slot that has a value of $8,415,300 assigned to it.

The Pirates have the largest bonus pool in baseball this year, so even if they don’t do that, they should have room to be aggressive at pick No. 37 or beyond. Saving more at the top could allow them to really be in play for prospects who slide because of signability. Folks on Twitter had some interesting suggestions for who those second-round picks could be, including toolsy high school outfielders like James Wood, who struggled this spring, or Lonnie White, who will have to be signed away from playing football at Penn State. New Jersey high school right-hander Chase Petty was also brought up, and that’s a category, high school pitching, that really could figure in for the Pirates at 37 or anyone with extra picks in the comp or second and third rounds. Prep arms typically fall a bit because of the risk and they often will put out first-round type bonus requests to not head to college. Petty, fellow Garden State product Anthony Solometo (though I think he goes in the first round), ultra-projectable California righty Thatcher Hurd, maybe recent pop-up no-hitter phenom Frank Mozzicato all fit in there somewhere.

In other words, there will be many options to consider for the Pirates and others. I would love to see the Pirates get Ole Miss starter Will Bednar at No. 37, since he’s from Pittsburgh and could then play with his brother, David (a current Pirates reliever), in the future. It sounds like the younger Bednar will go earlier than that, but yinz can dream.

Where could you see Frank Mozzicato drafted given his recent streak of no-hitters? -- @StevieDAles97

Speaking of Mozzicato, currently No. 51 on our Top 200, he’s definitely created quite the stir, hasn’t he? I don’t think the fact that he’s thrown a bunch of no-hitters really impacts his Draft stock that much (though it doesn’t hurt). Keep in mind, scouts are evaluating young pitchers for their stuff, their deliveries and especially with someone like him, their projection. Who Mozzicato might be in the future is more important than any numbers he puts up against Connecticut high school competition. There has been some buzz about him sneaking into the end of the first round, and he has thrown harder this spring than he did last summer to go along with one of the better curveballs in the class. But I’ve yet to find someone who definitely thinks he belongs in that first round. Without knowing what his signability is to keep him from heading to UConn, I think his ceiling really is more in the comp or second round.

Which Double-A arm has been most impressive and which do we see first in Triple-A or MLB out of Roansy Contreras, Jake Eder, Nick Lodolo, Cole Winn, and DL Hall?

Now on to some Minor League talk. Interesting mix of pitchers performing well at the Double-A level, with Eder (Marlins) and Contreras (Pirates) probably the most surprising of that list. Lodolo (Reds) and Hall (Orioles) are both in the Top 100 and are No. 5 and 7 on the Top 10 LHP prospects list, while Winn is a former first-round pick himself who could work his way onto the Top 100 this year. I think all will see Triple-A at some point this year, though teams will be treating pitching cautiously after last year’s year off. Some of it will have to do with opportunities at higher levels and need in the big leagues. The Orioles, Pirates and Rangers are not competing this year, so there won’t be the “help in the bullpen for the playoff stretch” thing that can happen. With the Pirates, there isn’t a ton of pitching help in Triple-A, so I could see Contreras getting bumped up soon to see if he can master that level and perhaps help a big league rotation that has the worst ERA in the National League. But if I had to pick one to move the fastest, it would be Lodolo, the Reds’ top pick in the 2019 Draft. He was taken as an advanced college lefty who could move fast, and he’s showing off the combination of stuff and outstanding command/feel for pitching that could have him ready to contribute to a team that currently is only a couple of games under .500.

Why are we seeing so many top prospects get called up and fail this season? -- @PSerious1972

This probably warrants a deeper dive, but I felt it was worth at least getting the ball rolling here. Yes, prospects like Jarred Kelenic and Cristian Pache on the offensive end, Daniel Lynch and Nate Pearson (briefly) on the pitching side, have struggled out of the gate this year (I would like to point out that Logan Gilbert, after starting slowly, seems to be finding his footing). One thing none of us knew was just how last year’s layoff would impact players. Could that be a factor in some of these guys struggling with the first go-round in the big leagues this year? It’s possible. Sure, I’m surprised that Kelenic didn’t have at least moderate success, but I also have full confidence he’ll be back soon. It still is a small sample size and over the years, many, many prospects have come up and scuffled at first before finding their way. So I wouldn’t read too much into what’s gone on thus far, especially with that variable of the lack of a 2020 season that we don’t fully understand.