Pipeline Inbox: Will Rangers' big arms move quickly?

After two weeks in Arizona, I still definitely have Fall League on the brain. We talked about it at length in this week’s MLB Pipeline Podcast, including answering a question about top AFL and White Sox prospect Colson Montgomery. So I figured, why not keep it going as the AFL wraps up this week.

Emiliano Teodo and Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa had really strong Fall Leagues for the Rangers. What’s the chances both start next season in Frisco? And do you see them as being guys that can move quickly from there to the big leagues? -- @TXRangersWTB

I don’t miss a chance these days to talk about Teodo, the Rangers’ No. 22 prospect. Even though he showed the part of his game he needs the most work on, his command, in a shaky Fall Stars Game appearance, he was the most electric arm I saw in my two weeks of AFL coverage. Teodo is regularly north of 100 mph with his fastball and has an absolutely nasty mid-80s slider that often registers 3,000 rpm or better. I even wrote about him a short while ago. Command hasn’t been a problem during the AFL regular season, as he’s gone 11 scoreless innings, allowed just three walks and three hits while striking out 19.

Hoopii-Tuionetoa has been pretty dominant in his own right, allowing no runs over 9 2/3 frames, yielding four hits and three walks while striking out 10. He was one of Jim Callis’ top Fall Stars Game performers after he worked a perfect fourth inning, using his mid-90s fastball to strike out Oliver Dunn and Jakob Marsee. He has a hard slider as well.

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To answer your question more directly, I think Teodo, who’s been developed as a starter before this Fall League stint, will definitely start the year with Double-A Frisco. He was with High-A Hickory in 2023 and has obviously pitched well enough to move up. If it were me, I’d never let Teodo start another game. In the 'pen, his command doesn’t have to be pinpoint, and I think that if he’s around the zone like he has been this fall, he’ll be in the big leagues at some point in 2024. Teodo has every chance to throw in high-leverage situations.

I think Hoopii-Tuionetoa might be a half-step behind and his stuff isn’t quite as explosive as Teodo's. He missed some time this year with a right elbow issue, but he is clearly throwing the ball well. But Hoopii-Tuionetoa has just 11 2/3 innings above Single-A and now the time in the AFL. That could help him speed up a little bit, and maybe a good spring could put him in the same 'pen as Teodo, and who knows when things can click.

The Rangers deserve some kudos for finding some diamonds in the rough here. They signed Teodo for $10,000, and he was almost 19. They got Hoopii-Tuionetoa out of the junior college ranks in Round 30 in the 2019 Draft. If either of them make it to the big leagues, that’s a big win.

The Pirates are loaded in the farm with guys like Paul Skenes, Termarr Johnson, Jared Jones, etc. But who is someone in the Pirates' system we ARENT talking about enough? -- @2000sSports

The Pirates are indeed loaded, starting with those names you have at the top there. It’s why we ranked them No. 2 on our updated farm system rankings in August. Even with the graduations of guys like Henry Davis and Endy Rodriguez, it’s a top-heavy and deep system. But let me throw out a hitter and a pitcher to consider, both ranked on the Top 30, but who could start getting more love in 2024. Sticking with my AFL theme, I’ll submit Jase Bowen as the hitter. He’s No. 27 on the list, but it's safe to assume he’s going to move up on our next list before the 2024 season begins.

There’s still some work to be done on Bowen's overall approach. His strikeout rate isn’t awful (24.3 percent in 2023; 24.5 in the AFL), but he could stand to see a few more pitches and draw some more walks (6.8 percent in the regular season; 8.5 this fall). But the power-speed combination is real after a 20-20 regular season. His solid AFL should help him hit Double-A Altoona full-time in 2024, where he’ll play all year at age 23.

On the pitching side, keep an eye on No. 9 prospect Hunter Barco. It may sound weird to say a top 10 guy is under the radar, but because he had Tommy John surgery in May of his Draft year, he hasn’t been talked about much. But Barco did return to the mound last year, for 18 1/3 innings, and he threw well. The 2024 season could be the one that sees him really put the surgery behind him and allows him to jump to the upper levels, joining some of the arms who have taken nice steps forward in the system already.

Does Kevin Parada stay behind the plate? Is his bat a carrying tool at another position? -- @jimmyzcb1

While I did get to see Parada, the Mets’ No. 5 prospect, in the AFL as well, I can’t say I saw him do anything of note. It can be hit-or-miss in terms of that and I’m largely throwing out his rough slash line (.186/.240/.371) because of sample size (75 plate appearances) and that it came on the heels of his first full season of pro ball, during which he played in more than 100 games for the first time. You want to make sure he isn’t going to wear down, but given that he just turned 22 last August, there’s time for him to continue to work on strength and conditioning.

Parada’s numbers in the regular season weren’t eye-popping, but most of them were accrued with High-A Brooklyn, which isn’t a great hitters' park. He did hit 14 homers over 105 games and the hope is there’s more to come there, especially if he can refine his approach a bit.

Parada is really focused on his defense and the Mets were pleased with the progress he’s shown to date, but he’ll be a serviceable catcher at best. If the bat develops as hopes, he still has a good chance to be an offensive-minded starting backstop in the big leagues. If the glove isn’t good enough, or he’s blocked by, say, fellow bat-first catcher Francisco Alvarez, he is athletic enough to handle another spot. But that will put more pressure on Parada's bat and it’s a little too early to tell if he’s going to be that big of a power-hitting run producer to profile easily at an outfield corner or first base.