Inbox: Previewing the 2021 Draft

MLB Pipeline's reworked and expanded Draft Top 200 is now live, with our third different No. 1 prospect in three iterations of the list. Kumar Rocker opened the year in the top spot before fellow Vanderbilt right-hander Jack Leiter displaced him in April, and now California high school shortstop Marcelo Mayer has moved in front of them and everyone else.

In what should be no surprise, this week's Pipeline Inbox has a heavy Draft flavor.

Who would make the Prospects Team for each position heading into the MLB Draft?
-- StevieDAles97

Let's create two teams, one of college players and one of high schoolers. I'm only going to consider players at their projected positions, so I'm not going to load up the prep squad by moving shortstops Jordan Lawlar and Brady House to second and third base so they can play alongside Mayer.

All-Draft Team, College Edition
Henry Davis, C, Louisville
Niko Kavadas, 1B, Notre Dame
Peyton Wilson, 2B, Alabama
Zach Gelof, 3B, Virginia
Matt McLain, SS, UCLA
Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston
Jud Fabian, OF, Florida
Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College
Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State
Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt

All-Draft Team, High School Edition
Harry Ford, C, North Cobb HS (Kennesaw, Ga.)
Tommy White, 1B, IMG Academy (Bradenton, Fla.)
Peyton Stovall, 2B, Haughton (La.) HS
Izaac Pacheco, 3B, Friendswood (Texas) HS
Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (Chula Vista, Calif.)
Joshua Baez, OF, Dexter Southfield HS (Brookline, Mass.)
Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land HS (Lewisberry, Pa.)
Will Taylor, OF, Dutch Fork HS (Irmo, S.C.)
Anthony Solometo, LHP, Bishop Eustace (Pennsauken Township, N.J.)
Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall HS (Oklahoma City)

Even without Lawlar and House, two of the half-dozen best prospects in the 2021 Draft, the high schoolers have a superior infield. The collegians have the better overall team, however, with advantages behind the plate, in the outfield and on the mound.

When would you expect Vidal Bruján to get the call?
-- DFrassato

It's hard enough to find a way to fit Wander Franco, the best prospect in baseball, on the Rays. Bruján has the additional problem of being in the pecking order behind Franco, his teammate at Triple-A Durham.

Bruján (No. 40 on the Top 100) already has started games at second and third base and all three outfield spots while hitting .314/.417/.627 with five homers and three steals in 13 games. He's much more about speed than power, though he's driving the ball better than he ever has. His versatility helps his cause but Tampa Bay doesn't really have any obvious openings for playing time right now and no reason to call up Franco or Bruján and not have them get at-bats.

Franco has yet to play the outfield and probably wouldn't be asked to learn a new position on the fly in the Majors, so an outfield injury might be Bruján's best chance for a promotion sooner rather than later. (Though the Rays also could move Brandon Lowe from second base to the outfield and put Franco at second base.) Bruján's best avenue to regular playing time might be a trade, but if he keeps hitting like this, he'll force his way to Tampa Bay by July.

Finish this sentence: Jackson Jobe is the best HS RHP Draft prospect since ____
-- AdvancedStats23

... Hunter Greene, who was No. 1 on our 2017 Draft Top 200. And while Greene threw harder, Jobe has a far superior breaking ball, a more advanced changeup and similar control and command, so it could be argued that Greene wasn't necessarily better. One crosschecker I know saw Jobe pitch so well that he gave him an 80 slider, a 70 fastball and changeup and 60 command on the 20-80 scouting scale.

A Heritage Hall (Oklahoma City) product, Jobe could go in the first 10 picks of the Draft. Teams are generally reluctant to take prep right-handers that high, but he has the best mix of three pitches and control/command available -- better than any of the college pitchers as well as the high schoolers.

What are the odds that either Jaden Hill or Gunnar Hoglund fall to the Pirates at No. 37 now that they both had Tommy John surgery? Would the possibility of drafting one of them with the 37th pick influence Pittsburgh in going in a different direction than Jack Leiter or Kumar Rocker with the No. 1 overall choice?
-- Vinnie S., Holidaysburg, Pa.

Right-handers Hill (Louisiana State) and Hoglund (Mississippi) both projected as top-10-overall selections before they blew out their elbows. The difference between them this spring is that Hoglund was pitching well while Hill was quite inconsistent. I don't think there's any way Hoglund gets out of the first round, even after his elbow reconstruction, while Hill very well could make it to the Pirates at the top of the second round.

The availability of Hill or Hoglund at No. 37 will have zero bearing on what Pittsburgh does at No. 1. If the team that has the top pick does anything but take the best player available, it's doing itself a disservice. In any case, most clubs believe the Pirates prefer Mayer and Lawlar to Leiter or Rocker.