Inbox: Dark horse for top prospect in 2024?

We should be done with rankings for a little while. In the last week, we've updated MLB Pipeline's Top 100 Prospects list, our organization Top 30s, our positional Top 10s and our farm system ratings. And of course, you have questions. Let's answer some of them ...

Who is someone to watch as a dark horse #1 prospect in 2024?
-- @egalinsky15 (Instagram)

Sam Dykstra, Jonathan Mayo and I staged a takeover of MLB Pipeline's Instagram account on Wednesday, taking questions from followers (almost exactly like the Pipeline Inbox!). This question intrigued me so I decided to import it here as well.

It's very possible that Orioles shortstop Jackson Holliday, Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio, Pirates right-hander Paul Skenes and Nationals outfielder Dylan Crews -- the top four prospects on our recently updated Top 100 list -- will graduate to the big leagues in 2024. If that happens, Padres catcher Ethan Salas already has reached High-A at age 17 and would be the most likely successor to Holliday at No. 1.

As for a less obvious pick, I like Rangers outfielder Wyatt Langford, No. 13 on the Top 100. He ranked right behind Skenes and Crews on our Draft Top 250 but his big league club is in far better shape than the Pirates or Nationals, so he might not get pushed to the Majors as quickly.

Langford has as much power potential as anyone in the Minors and is a 6-foot-1, 225-pound athlete with all-around tools. He's a potential plus hitter with an advanced approach, and he also has solid speed and a chance to play center field. Small sample size, of course, but in his first 15 games as a pro (mostly in High-A), he has batted .291/.418/.600 with 11 extra base-hits, 11 walks and four steals.

I love this question because most fans see a wider variance between farm systems than the rankings actually should indicate. Evaluating all the prospect talent throughout all 30 organizations is an extremely subjective task, and it's impossible to line them all up correctly based on all the factors involved.

Placing them in tiers is a more accurate way to relate the strength of farm systems, so thanks for asking. Here goes:

Tier I: Orioles, Pirates, Brewers, Cubs
Tier II: Reds, Dodgers, Rays
Tier III: Nationals, Padres, Rangers, Mets, Diamondbacks, Tigers, Giants, Guardians, Red Sox
Tier IV: Twins, Rockies, Mariners, White Sox, Yankees, Cardinals, Phillies
Tier V: Marlins, Blue Jays, Athletics, Braves, Angels, Royals, Astros

I don't get it either. In terms of prospect evaluation, nothing bothers me more than the fact that we never rank the Astros far from the bottom and yet they keep producing talent that helps them win at a high level. I cover Houston's system for MLB Pipeline, so I'm far from blameless here.

Since we expanded our biannual system rankings to include all 30 teams before the 2020 season, we have rated the Astros 28th, 27th, 29th, 29th, 29th, 29th, 27th and, most recently, 30th. We aren't the only media outlet doing this -- I can't find anyone who put Houston's organizational talent close to even the middle of the pack during the last four years.

During that time, the Astros have made the playoffs each year to stretch their franchise record for consecutive appearances to six, won a World Series and two pennants. They've produced a player worthy of Rookie of the Year votes each season (Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, Jeremy Peña) before coming up with three more this year (Hunter Brown, Yainer Diaz, J.P. France).

Houston obviously does an outstanding job of finding players undervalued by the industry and helping them reach or exceed their perceived ceilings. All of our rankings are based on extensive conversations with player development and scouting officials, as well as statistical and data analysis, so it's not like we're alone in underrating Astros prospects. I wish I had a better answer for what's going on here.

How close is third baseman Bryan Ramos to being in the top five for the White Sox and Top 100 overall? I believe I had heard it mentioned at one point in the past he was close to the Top 100, yet with the trades and Draft he has moved to down to No. 7!
-- Ian E., Wheaton, Ill.

Ramos has been knocking on the door to the Top 100 but injuries haven't helped him. He played through a shoulder issue in 2021 that kept his numbers down and he missed most of the first two months this year with a groin ailment. He started slowly this season but has been on a .333/.435/.653 tear over the last month that has boosted his overall numbers to .272/.390/.492 with 11 homers in 52 Double-A games at age 21.

One of many Cuban prospects in the White Sox system, Ramos signed for $300,000 in July 2018. He's one of Chicago's more advanced hitting prospects, features plus raw power and has improved defensively at the hot corner.

If Ramos can stay healthy in 2023, he could hit his way onto the Top 100. He was clearly the White Sox' third-best prospect, behind only shortstop Colson Montgomery and left-hander Noah Schultz, before they drafted Jacob Gonzalez and traded for Edgar Quero, Jake Eder and Nick Nastrini in July.