Inbox: Can dominant Chase Burns go Top 5 in '24 Draft?
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As Jim Callis and I discussed on the most recent episode of the MLB Pipeline Podcast, it’s a fun time to be a baseball fan of any kind, and it’s really exciting in the wonderful world of prospects. The college baseball season just got started and they were kind enough to time it with the beginning of Spring Training. There is a real-life Cactus League game going on as I sit to write this.
That means that Spring Breakout is right around the corner, too. If you don’t know what it is yet, go read up. These games pitting each organization’s best prospects against each other are going to be so much fun, starting with the March 14 Orioles-Pirates game (Paul Skenes vs. Jackson Holliday anyone?).
All this excitement helps lift our spirits as we are neck deep in writing reports for the team Top 30 lists (coming the week of March 4). And it’s giving me an extra boost to jump in and answer some of your questions.
Holy moly, Chase Burns! If he keeps this up does he go Top 5? -- @gregmaturin28
We answered this one on the pod, so give it a listen. But in a word -- maybe?
Obviously, we don’t expect Burns to not give up a run all year for Wake Forest. But his first start against Illinois as the Demon Deacons’ Saturday starter was a very, very good first step forward. We had him at No. 16 on the Draft Top 100 we put out in December because his stuff is ridiculously good, but the strike-throwing was a question. The hope was that time in the Wake Forest pitching lab would help him harness it.
If his first start was any indication, it has. Burns went six innings, allowing just three hits while striking out 10. Most encouraging was the fact he walked only one. As Jim outlined on the podcast, Burns averaged 98 mph with his fastball and touched 101. The heater, along with his slider -- which topped out at 92 mph -- got ridiculous swing-and-miss rates. He threw a few curves and changeups, something we’ll want to see more of, but he leaned mostly on that fastball-slider combination. He threw 58 of his 88 pitches for strikes.
Burns has been the one pitcher on the list I know I had circled (and I think Jim agrees) who had the best chance to move up the list. It’s too early to say Top 5 for sure, but if he can command the baseball like he did in his first start, it would be surprising if he wasn’t in that conversation.
Who is the most likely prospect to be an early season callup that can make an impact in a Rookie of the Year race? -- @PW_GoCubsGo
It’s easy to cherry-pick from the top of our Top 100 here, right? Let’s put No. 1 Jackson Holliday aside, since it sounds like he’s being given a chance to make the Opening Day roster. No. 2 Jackson Chourio almost certainly will be with the Brewers, so I’ll start with No. 3 Paul Skenes. I think Skenes will show this spring that his stuff can get big league hitters out right now, but the Pirates will likely want to give him a little time at the upper levels. Stephen Strasburg debuted in June of his first professional year and I think Skenes beats that timeline, giving him enough time to pitch well enough to compete for Rookie of the Year.
Wyatt Langford (No. 6) could be right there with him, having made it to Triple-A during his summer debut while absolutely crushing the ball for the Rangers. So could Dylan Crews (No. 7) with the Nationals. We told you the top of the 2023 Draft class was special, right?
I’d also keep an eye on Pete Crow-Armstrong (No. 16) and Brooks Lee (No. 18) on the offensive end. Remember, we need a combination of readiness and opportunity. A sleeper pick for me could be Coby Mayo (No. 30) with the Orioles because who wouldn’t want that power? But there isn’t a direct path to playing time right now.
Is Yandro Hernandez someone you are paying attention to? Just signed with the Twins out of Cuba. -- @milkierthanyou
I’m going to be honest: He wasn’t, at least not until you asked me about him. Being so wrapped up in our Top 30 work, I had missed that the Twins had signed the Cuban standout for $800,000 a week ago. So I went digging (my thanks to Francys Romero for the assist). Hernandez is certainly someone worth paying attention to, though I’m not quite ready to put him on Minnesota's Top 30 just yet.
A member of Cuba’s U-18 team in 2022 (his father, Stayler, also played for the National Team in the past), Hernandez is a switch-hitter who is better from the left side. He was the best hitter in Cuba’s U-18 National Tournament in 2023, hitting .463 while topping the tourney in hits and slugging percentage. The 18-year old is more athletic and in better shape than he was a couple of years ago with a chance to hit for average and power, in addition to fitting the corner outfield profile well.
Connor Norby feels like a prospect that in the past would have made the Top 100. Solid at everything without the one large carrying tool, can play multiple spots, close to the Majors, etc. Have you moved away from this type of high-floor prospect toward high-ceiling players? -- @morrsco
I wouldn’t say that we’ve moved away from “this type of prospect” in any deep philosophical shift. We liked Norby enough to put him at No. 7 on our Top 10 second base prospect list and the 2021 second-rounder certainly grew into his power in '23, with 40 doubles and 21 homers.
I think he has the chance to be a solid big leaguer, but I’m not 100 percent sure if it’s as an everyday player, at least not on a contending team. You’re right in that he does a lot of things pretty well and he can play second base and the outfield. He’s touched our Top 100 before, but for me, he’s settling in to being a solid player, not an outstanding one. Solid players can help you win a championship, but it leaves him just on the outside of the Top 100.