Inbox: Who will be the AFL MVP?

Who is the frontrunner for AFL MVP? -- @HIP_H0P_JORGE

We answered this one on this week’s Pipeline Podcast, and I have to admit, the conversation made me rethink things a bit. I came into the discussion with really only one name on my list: the Cubs’ Nelson Velazquez. Chicago's No. 29 prospect is certainly on a short list, and he might still be the favorite to win the Joe Black MVP award. After all, the slugging outfielder leads the league in home runs (nine) and total bases (70) while standing second in OPS (1.160) and slugging percentage (.693). He sits fourth in RBIs (21), fifth in average (.366) and is tied for seventh in on-base percentage (.467). It’s an easy argument to make that he’s been the best hitter in the league.

The Cardinals’ Juan Yepez is another legit candidate. The organization’s No. 26 prospect is currently second in the league lead in RBIs with 26, third in slugging (.646), third in total bases (53) and sixth in OPS (1.030). I’d put Velazquez over Yepez at this point.

But the guys on the pod, Jim Callis and Jason Ratliff, made a very interesting and strong case for right-hander Owen White. The Rangers' No. 28 prospect has been easily the best pitcher in the league in a season that has been extremely hitting-friendly (Case in point: Glendale leads the AFL in team ERA, at 4.79). White's 1.16 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, .143 average against and about a strikeout per inning all stand out. And he’s been good every single time out, including a perfect nine-pitch inning in last Saturday’s Fall Stars Game.

When you compare that to a league ERA of 5.55 and WHIP of 1.64, what White has done this fall stands out even more. And that’s what made me change my thinking a little bit. I still think Velazquez belongs at the top, but the case can be made for White to become just the second pitcher to win AFL MVP honors, following Tommy Hanson, who won the award in 2008.

More career games at SS: Nick Gonzales or Oneil Cruz? Same two: greater career WAR? -- @ballsandgutters

Currently, Gonzales is third in the AFL with a .380 average and had a .380/.483/.549 line in his 19 games. There is absolutely zero doubt in my mind he’s going to hit, and hit a lot, in the big leagues. While an injury shortened his 2021 and probably kept him from reaching Double-A this year, I could see him hitting his way quickly up the ladder to Pittsburgh at some point in 2022. He’s that advanced and talented of a hitter.

Cruz, of course, has incredible amounts of offensive upside he’s just starting to learn to tap into. There’s a reason they are No. 3 and 4 among the Pirates' Top 30 and in the Top 100. There’s power and speed, not to mention that he sports one of the best arms in the Minors.

If you had told me a couple of years ago that Cruz, at 6-foot-7, would still be playing shortstop, it’s unlikely I would have believed you. But not only has he continued to play it, he’s played it fairly well. And the fact that he got some time at the premium spot in the big leagues says something about the organization’s belief he can play there, at least for now. Meanwhile, Gonzales played one game at short during the regular season, and while he was getting reps at short in Arizona, he’s played three games there. I bring all of this up to answer your first question: Cruz will play a lot more shortstop in the big leagues than Gonzales.

As for the career WAR question, that’s a little tougher. But as much as I love Cruz’s ceiling, I just think there is so much certainty in Gonzales’ bat that I’ll pick him as the answer to that one.

In your opinion, who were the pitchers that looked like TORPs the most in Arizona? -- @MiLBInvestor

See the above answer that talks about pitching overall in the AFL this year as a start. In other words, there aren’t too many to choose from. I talk about White above, and he does have upside. I’m not sure if he’ll quite be a top-of-the-rotation type, but I think there is some ceiling for him to reach. The only other pitcher I’d mention is Pirates right-hander Roansy Contreras. I just saw him on Wednesday and he was completely dominant, striking out eight over four innings, with a fastball sitting in the mid-90s easily and two distinct breaking balls. Health will be a key, as he missed two months with a forearm strain in 2021, but look for the club's No. 6 prospect to be in the Pirates rotation from the outset of 2022 after making his big league debut this past season. His combination of stuff and ability to command it really stood out.

What is the deal with CJ Abrams? -- @twcunningham

Abrams has been the 2022 AFL version of Godot. He never was taken off the roster for the Peoria Javelinas, but the Padres’ top prospect never appeared in a game. That was disappointing for Padres and prospect fans alike, who were very excited to see the No. 6 overall prospect come back from a broken leg and sprained MCL. In the early stages of the AFL, the reports were that he was spending time on the back fields in Peoria, the Padres’ Spring Training home, getting built up so he could play.

A bruised shoulder suffered during instructs slowed him down a bit, and in the end, the Padres just decided to play it safe with their 2019 first-round pick. He continued to get work on the back fields and all reports are that he looks great, but the organization just felt erring on the side of caution was the way to go. He’s added good weight/strength and the expectation is he’s going to open a lot of eyes in big league camp next spring. And think of it this way: His absence has allowed more time for Eguy Rosario (SD 15) to impress, both at the plate and at third base.