Looking back at Judge's scouting report from 10 years ago

Aaron Judge hit his 61st home run of the 2022 season while I was writing this Inbox, which made me wonder about the first time I ever wrote a scouting report on him. It turns out that I ranked him sixth on Baseball America's Cape Cod League Top 30 Prospects list in 2012, which on one hand makes me feel good because he lasted 32 picks in the Draft the following June.

On the other hand, I put Judge behind Sean Manaea, Colin Moran, Phil Ervin, Austin Wilson and Kevin Ziomek, and that hasn't exactly aged well. Here's my report from a decade ago:

6. Aaron Judge, OF, Brewster (Jr., Fresno State)

Judge is a powerful 6-foot-7, 250-pounder, prompting two Cape observers to compare him to NBA star Blake Griffin. He’s capable of displaying massive right-handed pop, such as when he homered twice in one game against Stanford first-rounder Mark Appel in March and won the TD Ameritrade college home run derby in July.

However, Judge hit just two homers in his other 57 games for Fresno State last spring. He did hit five homers this summer while batting .270 for the Whitecaps. The top prospect in the Alaska League in 2011 despite not hitting a home run, he’s still raw at the plate, struggles to get to quality inside pitches and is almost patient to a fault, waiting for a perfect pitch to crush. A center fielder for Brewster, he fits best in right field with his solid speed and arm strength.

“He’s similar [physically] to Giancarlo Stanton,” the NL scouting director said. “Big, tall, long limbs, long arms, big power. How much contact he’ll make and how much power he’ll get to is the question.”

Judge's patience continued to stand out in the Minors, where he slammed 56 homers in 348 games over three seasons before reaching New York. He nearly matched that total with 52 blasts as a rookie in 2017, when he got more aggressive and started tapping more into his prodigious power potential.

Speaking of prodigious power potential, the first two questions in this Inbox deal with players who could win the home run title in the Arizona Fall League, which begins play on Monday.

How close is Deyvison De Los Santos to [the] Top 100 [Prospects list]? -- @DwightBurd

A corner infielder in the D-backs' system, De Los Santos is getting close to making our Top 100 Prospects list. He has as much raw power as just about anyone in the Minors and slashed .306/.348/.499 with 22 homers in 126 games at three levels (mostly in Single-A, though he did reach Double-A) at age 19. Signed for just $200,000 out of the Dominican Republic in 2019, he looks like a steal.

If De Los Santos proves he can control the zone well enough to be productive against pitchers at higher levels, that should put him on the Top 100. His strikeout (26.3 percent) and walk (6.1 percent) rates are a bit worrisome, and he could wind up at first base rather than third base. But it's easy to dream on his youth and his power.

How serious should we be taking [Matt] Mervis? Seems like he’s ranking WAY low compared to his performance. Can you give some insight into why? -- @VictorFiction

An undrafted free agent out of Duke in 2020 who likely would have fit in rounds 6-10 if the Draft hadn't been shortened to five rounds amid the pandemic, Cubs first-base prospect Matt Mervis slashed just .208/.310/.367 while spending most of his pro debut in Single-A at age 23 in '21. He rebounded in a big way this year, slashing .309/.379/.605 while rising from High-A to Triple-A and leading the Minors in extra-base hits (78), total bases (310) and RBIs (119).

I ranked Mervis 21st on our Cubs Top 30 when we revamped our lists in early August, at which point he had homered three times in his first three weeks in Triple-A. He went deep 12 times in his final 31 games at that level to rank third in the Minors with 36 homers in 137 games.

As terrific as Mervis' performance was, and as legitimate as his left-handed power is, his age (24) and position mean that he comes with some caveats. He improved his swing decisions this year, did a better job of handling southpaws and put himself in position to compete for Chicago's first-base job in 2023. He's not a Top 100 guy, but if we re-ranked the Cubs list today, he'd move up to around No. 14 on one of the deeper Top 30s in the game.

Who do you think is the most likely Rays prospect to make a huge [Kyle] Manzardo-like splash? -- @jakelarsen

A relatively unheralded second-round pick out of Washington State in 2021, first baseman Kyle Manzardo ranked among the Minor League leaders in OPS (1.043, second), slugging (.617, fourth) batting (.327, seventh) and on-base percentage (.426, ninth) while advancing to Double-A this season. The Rays have had one of baseball's most productive farm systems for years and a pair of international prospects stand out as their next potential breakouts.

Shortstop Carlos Colmenarez was one of the top talents in the 2021 international class, signing for $3 million out of Venezuela. He'll make his full-season debut at age 19 next year and projects as a quality shortstop who could have plus hitting ability to go with solid power and speed. His .251/.353/.341 line in two years of Rookie ball belies his potential.

Colmenarez could play in Single-A alongside third baseman/shortstop Junior Caminero, whom Tampa Bay acquired from the Guardians in a November 2021 trade. He has slashed .306/.382/.512 in two years as a pro and arrived in Single-A this summer shortly after turning 19. While he doesn't have Colmenarez's all-around tools, Caminero has more power and manages the strike zone better.

Any word on when the [2023] Draft lottery is taking place? -- @FflLuka

It's not officially finalized yet, but MLB's first-ever Draft lottery is expected to take place during the Winter Meetings, which will be held Dec. 4-11 in San Diego. All 18 teams that don't make the postseason will have a shot at the No. 1 overall pick, with the clubs with the three worst records from the 2022 season each having a 16.5 percent chance.

The other teams will have declining percentages in reverse order of their records, down to 0.23 percent for the non-playoff club with the highest winning percentage. Here's the breakdown: