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Who will be the best players and which will be the best teams of the next decade?
That’s the question that Major League Baseball posed to fans Tuesday when it unveiled The Vault, a new fantasy game that asks participants to submit their predictions for MLB’s 2020-29 leaders in nine categories.
These are hardly easy questions -- just think about how much can change in a decade. At this time 10 years ago, Mike Trout had barely played above rookie ball. Nelson Cruz was a 29-year-old with 55 career home runs. Max Scherzer had just been traded to the Tigers. The Giants hadn’t won a World Series since 1954.
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Looking 10 years into the future provides so many options. The leaders of this new decade could be established stars who age gracefully, young players just starting to show what they can do, prospects on the cusp of the Majors, or even someone who is totally off the radar in March 2020.
So many things in baseball are wonderfully unpredictable, but to help fans make their picks, MLB.com enlisted five experts to take their best shots. Here are their selections, in each of the nine categories, accompanied by brief explanations.
Who will smash the most home runs this decade?
2010-19 leaders: Nelson Cruz 346, Edwin Encarnación 335, Giancarlo Stanton 308
Anthony Castrovince (National Columnist): Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays
He will come into his own at the plate in the decade's first year and, even if he has to move across the diamond or to DH by 2029, the raw power will be there.
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Sarah Langs (Reporter/Editor): Juan Soto, Nationals
He's just 21 years old, has already racked up more than 50 homers in two seasons, and he's just getting started.
Mike Petriello (Lead Stats Analyst): Guerrero
He turns 21 on March 16, he had three of 2019's five hardest-hit balls, and I don't care that he's going to be a DH, because Cruz hit the most homers of the last decade.
Andrew Simon (Manager, Content Research): Cody Bellinger, Dodgers
He’s hit 111 in his first three seasons and is still only 24.
Tom Tango (Senior Data Architect): Soto
There’s several candidates, but I think he’s the one most likely to have a long career.
Who will record the most hits during the 2020s?
2010-19 leaders: Robinson Canó 1,695, Nick Markakis 1,651, Adam Jones 1,647
Castrovince: Francisco Lindor, Indians
Though he hasn't hit .300 since 2016, he's 26 and among the Major League leaders in hits over the past two seasons despite missing some time due to injury. If he remains in a leadoff role much of the decade, that provides lots of opportunity to compile.
Langs: Fernando Tatís Jr., Padres
He'll only be 30 by the end of the 2029 season, so this decade will encapsulate much of his prime, and it’s hard to see him doing anything other than raking.
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Petriello: Juan Soto, Nationals
He's 21 and he's already off to a start that is very legitimately historic. Young and proven? Yes, please.
Simon: Rafael Devers, Red Sox
At 22 last year, he finished second in the Majors by racking up 201 hits, and backed that up with an MLB-high 252 hard-hit balls (95+ mph exit velocity), per Statcast.
Tango: Ronald Acuña Jr., Braves
Again, lots of candidates, so just randomly going with my gut.
Which pitcher will tally the most wins in the next 10 years?
2010-19 leaders: Max Scherzer 161, Justin Verlander 160, Clayton Kershaw 156
Castrovince: Walker Buehler, Dodgers
Right combo of youth, stuff and belief that his current team will remain good for the better part of the decade.
Langs: Buehler
He's the ace-in-waiting for the Dodgers and will carry on the team's strong pitching tradition as Kershaw ages. The team figures to stay good for a while, putting him in position for those wins.
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Petriello: Buehler
There's a little bit of Scherzer in Buehler, and Max had the most wins last decade, which he entered at 25, just as Buehler will. (The Dodgers will also score a lot of runs.)
Simon: Buehler
He has the perfect mix of youth, stuff and results on a team that figures to be good for a long time.
Tango: Buehler
He's got the non-talent aspect needed, meaning being on a good team.
Who will notch the most K’s in the 2020s?
2010-19 leaders: Max Scherzer 2,452, Justin Verlander 2,260, Clayton Kershaw 2,179
Castrovince: Jack Flaherty, Cardinals
He struck out more than 10 batters per nine innings at age 23, so sign me up.
Langs: Flaherty
We may not see another run like his 2019 second half anytime soon, but Flaherty has struck out more than 10 batters per nine in each of his full seasons, a rate that will keep him atop this list, longevity permitting -- he's just 24.
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Petriello: Walker Buehler, Dodgers
For all the reasons he’s getting the most wins.
Simon: Flaherty
His 231-K explosion at age 23 last year, behind a wipeout fastball/slider combo, may be a sign of things to come.
Tango: Flaherty
He’s already great, and young.
Which club will record the most wins during the upcoming decade?
2010-19 leaders: Yankees 921, Dodgers 919, Cardinals 899
Castrovince: Dodgers
They have financial and farm flexibility and, while there are other good teams in their division, there aren't any set up nearly as well as they are for the foreseeable future.
Langs: Yankees
They won the most games last decade, with 921, and show no signs of slowing down, with prospects on their way up and Gerrit Cole in tow for most of the decade.
Petriello: Dodgers
They have hit the sweet spot of player development, technology, and limitless resources; they won the second-most games in the past decade, and that's with not even getting the full machine rolling for the first three years.
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Simon: Dodgers
They have seven straight division titles, the most wins in MLB over that span, a great outlook for 2020, and one of the sport's top farm systems
Tango: Dodgers
They have a great starting base already.
Which club will win the most titles in the 2020s?
2010-19 leaders: Giants 3, Red Sox 2
Castrovince: Braves
Just a gut feeling
Langs: Dodgers
Even as their window might appear to close with some players aging, the team's farm system is so deep that there's so much more talent on the way. They won the second-most games in the 2010s and didn't win a title -- perhaps the 2020s will be different.
Petriello: Dodgers
How could I pick a team to win the most games but not to win the most rings?
Simon: Dodgers
They’re due ... right?
Tango: Dodgers
See above (wins), plus money for needed trades.
Who will win the most MVP Awards this decade?
2010-19 leaders: Mike Trout 3, Miguel Cabrera 2
Castrovince: Ronald Acuña Jr., Braves
Could have easily been my answer for most homers and hits, too.
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Langs: Mike Trout, Angels
Sure, he's 28, and a lot of the other options are younger, but he's also Mike Trout, the best player on the planet, and could very feasibly win five MVPs in the first five years of the decade.
Petriello: Wander Franco, Rays
Let's get nuts. Choosing a 19-year-old is objectively nuts. But there hasn't been a prospect this hyped in a long time, and he's not that far away.
Simon: Trout
It’s tempting to pick a younger guy, but Trout is far and away the favorite at present, with no signs of slowing down.
Tango: Juan Soto, Nationals
See above (home runs).
Who will take home the Cy Young Award the most times in the 2020s?
2010-19 leaders: Clayton Kershaw 3, Max Scherzer 3, Jacob deGrom 2, Corey Kluber 2, Justin Verlander 2
Castrovince: Jack Flaherty, Cardinals
Just seems to have that "it" factor -- the youth, stuff and, above all else, tenacity to be on top routinely in the years to come.
Langs: Flaherty
I picked him to have the most strikeouts, so I'm definitely expecting some significant dominance from him.
Petriello: Walker Buehler, Dodgers
I am exhausted of saying he's good, but also how do I say he has the most wins and whiffs and not go with him here? It'll probably be, like, Spencer Howard.
Simon: Gerrit Cole, Yankees
Scherzer tied for the 2010s lead despite not winning his first until age 28. Cole nearly won No. 1 at 28 last year and seems primed for a dominant run.
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Tango: Flaherty
See above (strikeouts)
Who will be named to the most All-Star teams in the next 10 seasons?
2010-19 leaders: Clayton Kershaw 8, Yadier Molina 8, Mike Trout 8
Castrovince: Ronald Acuña Jr. (Braves)
Not only will he be great, but Braves fans typically turn out in the voting.
Langs: Mike Trout (Angels)
He should be on every All-Star team in the 2020s.
Petriello: Trout
Because he’s Mike Trout. Let’s say the next eight will be earned, and the following two will be honorary.
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Simon: Trout
He’s made eight in a row -- a sign of his amazing consistency -- and even if he drops off in his mid-30s he could keep the streak going on the strength of his popularity.
Tango: Ozzie Albies, Braves
There’s always a dearth of good second basemen.