Will Phillies finish with best overall record?
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On the surface, the Philadelphia Phillies don’t have much to be nervous about during the regular season's final month. That’s what happens when you stack up as many wins as they have entering September.
Following Monday’s walk-off win over the Houston Astros, Philadelphia is 77-54. The Phillies lead the Atlanta Braves by six games in the National League East, with a -1600 value (94.12% implied probability) of winning the division via the odds at the BetMGM online sportsbook.
If the season ended today, the Phillies would have a bye in the Wild Card Series. They trail the Los Angeles Dodgers (78-53) by one game for the top seed in the National League.
But that’s where things can get interesting for Philadelphia fans and baseball bettors. If the Phillies do catch the Dodgers for the top seed in the NL during the home stretch of the regular season, there is a decent chance they could finish with the best record in baseball.
BetMGM currently favors the Dodgers’ chances of finishing with the best record in MLB. Los Angeles is a +110 favorite to do so, resulting in an implied probability of 47.62%.
The Phillies are the primary challengers in this market, thanks to a +300 (25% implied probability) value. The New York Yankees are +333 (23.09%), the only other team with a better than 10/1 price tag.
However, this market could change based on one series. FanGraphs’ rest-of-season projections have all three teams finishing within two games.
Los Angeles is projected to finish 96-66, with New York expected to finish 95-67. Philadelphia's projected final record is 94-68.
The Phillies have been underdogs in this market for much of the year. They opened with a +2000 value to lead the league in regular-season wins, meaning a $10 bet would have netted a $200 profit.
The Dodgers started as +150 favorites, while the Yankees began with a +1000 price tag.
Philadelphia’s final 31-game stretch ranks 20th with an opponent win percentage of .495. Los Angeles’ last 31 games are 23rd at .491, while New York’s final 30 games are 17th at .498.
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