Nola, Phils on brink of frustrating finish to '21

ATLANTA -- Aaron Nola’s final pitch of the 2021 season was a 93 mph fastball to Braves pitcher Max Fried.

Fried swung and missed, ending the sixth inning.

It was not how Nola expected his season to end. He expected at least one more start. But the Phillies lost at Truist Park on Wednesday, 7-2, to put them on the brink of elimination in the National League East. They are 4 1/2 games behind Atlanta with four to play. The Braves’ magic number is one with five to play. A Braves victory or a Phillies loss will clinch Atlanta’s fourth consecutive division title and Philadelphia’s 10th consecutive season without postseason baseball. It is the longest postseason drought in the National League.

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“It’s frustrating for sure,” Nola said. “I feel like we’re getting closer every year.”

The Phillies’ (81-77) most realistic goal at this point is winning Thursday night’s series finale, which would clinch their first winning season since 2011 and prevent the Braves (85-72) from celebrating a four-peat in front of them.

“We’re going to go out and try to win a game and compete,” Nola said. “We’re not just going to drop everything.”

Nola allowed three runs in six innings to finish the season 9-9 with a 4.63 ERA.

“Not that great, honestly,” Nola said about his year. “Up and down. Yeah, I guess just up and down.”

The Phillies have several problems to solve before Spring Training. They might need to find two new outfielders. They need to figure out what’s happening on the left side of the infield. They need to rebuild the bullpen again. But one of next spring’s storylines will be how the Phils plan to get Nola back on track.

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Nola was one of baseball’s best and most consistent starting pitchers the previous four seasons, ranking fourth with a 20.6 WAR behind Jacob deGrom (24.6), Max Scherzer (23.1) and Justin Verlander (20.8), according to Baseball Reference.

Nola was 46-29 with a 3.23 ERA in that span, but he was not the same pitcher this season. His 4.63 ERA ranks 34th out of 39 qualified pitchers. He had a 6.19 ERA in six September starts, continuing the narrative that he struggles down the stretch. Nola allowed a National League-leading 82 two-strike hits, including six on Wednesday.

Three of those 82 two-strike hits were 0-2 home runs.

“Sometimes he got in long counts, sometimes he made a mistake with his breaking ball,” Phillies manager Joe Girardi said. “It’s been an interesting season. I mean, when you look at some of the numbers, they’re much better than what the ERA reflects. It’s just kind of a strange year. A lot of two-out hits that cost him. Just a strange year.”

Dig deep into the numbers and there are some indications that Nola ran into some bad luck. He had a 3.39 xERA entering Wednesday. Expected ERA is based on quality of contact, plus strikeouts and walks. The differential between Nola's actual ERA and his expected ERA is the third-largest gap in the Majors (minimum 300 balls in play).

Nola had the second-highest strikeout rate of his career. He had the lowest walk rate. More strikeouts and fewer walks often lead to success.

Not for Nola in 2021.

“It’s the home runs with guys on base,” Nola said. “It’s that one big inning mainly. I’ll go back and look at all the starts, but what comes to mind is that one big inning that hurt me. The two-, three-run homers hurt me. I take those out or get better at those next year and it’s obviously a better year. I give the team a better chance to win.”

“I think it’s better luck and I think it’s executing with two strikes,” Girardi said.

Like Zack Wheeler on Tuesday, Nola needed to be perfect to give the Phillies a chance to win. The offense has scored just three runs on eight hits in the first two games of the series. Bryce Harper is 0-for-7 with one walk and five strikeouts. He has been carrying this team for a long time. Maybe it is finally catching up with him.

“I think Bryce has probably had a weight on his shoulder for a long, long time,” Girardi said. “He’s been so good for so long. He’s bound to run into a [tough] day or two. You’re just bound to do that. He’s been carrying a lot of weight for a long time.”

Harper will not have to carry that weight much longer, barring a miracle.