What would Phils' most effective lineup look like?

This story was excerpted from Todd Zolecki’s Phillies Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

No matter the year, the players or the manager, every fan’s favorite team’s lineup could be so much better if somebody just listened to them.

The changes are just so simple and obvious.

It’s true for the 2024 Phillies, whose lineup could be better if Rob Thomson just listened to [insert fan’s name here]. Right? The Phillies might have made the World Series in 2022 and the NLCS in '23. They might have a 151-100 (.602) record the past two years -- including the postseason -- when Kyle Schwarber leads off, compared to 45-48 (.484) when he does not. But if they adjusted their lineup a little bit, they could set MLB offensive records and win 110 games.

Or maybe the lineup isn’t as important as everybody thinks? Over the past few years, Phillies officials have said the difference between one lineup and the next is relatively negligible over the course of a 162-game season, based on their internal projections.

The Phillies won’t let us look at those numbers, so we asked Brian McAfee for help. McAfee and his team developed SEQNZR, which is a baseball and softball analytics tool that is used throughout college baseball. (SEQNZR also signed a deal with the Reds in 2022.)

McAfee is a baseball guy. He pitched collegiately at Cornell and Duke. The Rays selected him in the 38th round of the 2016 Draft and he spent two seasons in Tampa Bay’s and Seattle’s farm systems. Today, he is a data scientist at Nike. His father, Frank, spent 40 years working in systems simulations at Boeing. A huge Mariners fan, Frank once wondered about Robinson Canó’s impact on Seattle’s lineup after he signed a 10-year, $240 million contract ahead of the '14 season.

Frank wrote a program that simulated Seattle’s season. Brian, Frank, Scott Soltis (a former Cornell teammate) and Pete Lannoo (a former Cornell teammate and Giants Minor Leaguer) upgraded the original program.

We asked Brian McAfee if there is one Phillies lineup that is better than the rest. McAfee used Steamer600 projections, including wOBA adjustments vs. right-handed and left-handed pitchers. SEQNZR's lineup optimizer ran simulations on different iterations of lineups, then selected the best five lineups and ran a full 100,000-game simulation, trying to determine the very best one.

SEQNZR found the differences between the best lineups with Schwarber leading off vs. the best lineups with Trea Turner leading off to be negligible. But even the best overall Phillies lineup isn’t a massive gain from others.

Here is a look at different Phillies lineups vs. right-handers and left-handers and their projected runs per game:

LINEUPS vs. RHP

Most Optimal: Harper, Schwarber, Turner, Bohm, Stott, Castellanos, Marsh, Realmuto, Rojas (5.04 runs per game)

2024 Opening Day lineup: Schwarber, Turner, Harper, Realmuto, Bohm, Stott, Castellanos, Marsh, Rojas (4.98)

Best Lineup with Turner leading off: Turner, Harper, Schwarber, Bohm, Stott, Rojas, Realmuto, Castellanos, Marsh (5.01)

"What’s the manager thinking" lineup: Realmuto, Rojas, Marsh, Stott, Castellanos, Bohm, Turner, Harper, Schwarber (4.92)

Kyle Schwarber clones: Schwarber, Schwarber, Schwarber, Schwarber, Schwarber, Schwarber, Schwarber, Schwarber, Schwarber (5.97)

Bryce Harper clones: Harper, Harper, Harper, Harper, Harper, Harper, Harper, Harper, Harper (7.26)

LINEUPS vs. LHP

Most Optimal: Harper, Bohm, Schwarber, Castellanos, Turner, Realmuto, Stott, Rojas, Marsh (5.13)

2023 Postseason lineup: Schwarber, Turner, Harper, Bohm, Stott, Realmuto, Castellanos, Marsh, Rojas (5.09)

Best lineup with Turner leading off: Turner, Harper, Schwarber, Castellanos, Bohm, Realmuto, Stott, Rojas, Marsh (5.12)

"What’s the manager thinking" lineup: Rojas, Marsh, Stott, Realmuto, Turner, Schwarber, Bohm, Castellanos, Harper (5.03)

Kyle Schwarber clones: Schwarber, Schwarber, Schwarber, Schwarber, Schwarber, Schwarber, Schwarber, Schwarber, Schwarber (5.31)

Bryce Harper clones: Harper, Harper, Harper, Harper, Harper, Harper, Harper, Harper, Harper (6.97)

Anything stand out? The best lineups typically have Bryce Harper, Schwarber and Turner hitting in the first three spots. But how about the best Phillies lineups having Harper leading off? It shouldn’t come as a surprise. SEQNZR simply wants the Phillies’ best player hitting as much as possible. That’s because every spot a hitter drops in the lineup means about 16 fewer plate appearances over the course of a season.

Essentially, Harper could see 32 more plate appearances hitting first rather than third.

We’re not recommending the Phillies do that. We’re just pointing it out.

Thomson’s 2024 Opening Day lineup vs. right-handers projects at .03 runs per game fewer than SEQNZR’s best lineup with Turner leading off. But over the course of a season, it is the difference of only 4.7 runs. Could it be the difference between another win or two? Maybe. But it eliminates the human element by not having the team’s best hitters where they feel the most comfortable.

Thomson’s ability to know his players is a big reason why the Phillies played so deep into October the past two seasons. Why mess with it by trying to get a relatively insignificant edge?