5 questions that will define Phils' 2nd half

PHILADELPHIA -- Though the Phillies earned a much-needed series victory over the Padres, their bid for a sweep came to an ugly end in Sunday's 11-1 loss at Citizens Bank Park.

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The defeat not only kept the Phils from securing their first sweep of at least three games since May 3-6 against the Brewers, but it also dropped them to 39-42 at the season's halfway mark. It's the first time the club has had a losing record at the midway point since 2017, when Philadelphia finished last in the National League East with a 66-96 record.

There have certainly been some bright spots. Zack Wheeler establishing himself as one of the game's best pitchers certainly sits atop that list. There was also Luke Williams' dramatic walk-off homer in his first career start and Aaron Nola matching an MLB record by striking out 10 consecutive batters.

Overall, though, the Phillies have lacked consistency -- something that was on full display in Sunday’s loss. Still, they find themselves just five games out of first place in the NL East heading into the Mets' nightcap against the Yankees.

"Obviously, it gives us an opportunity," manager Joe Girardi said. "That's the great part about it, is no one is running away with it. You can have a good 10-game stretch and be in first place, that's the bottom line."

Let's take a look at the five questions that will determine whether the Phillies can indeed make that run over their final 81 games.

Which version of Velasquez will Phillies get?

It appeared for a while that Vince Velasquez was going to turn the No. 4 spot in the Phils' rotation from a weakness into a strength. He posted a 2.30 ERA in his first six starts, but he has a 6.21 ERA in his last seven starts after allowing five runs in six innings on Sunday -- all of which came on a pair of Manny Machado home runs.

That came on the heels of tossing seven scoreless innings his last time out.

"You're going to have ups and downs. You make some mistakes, you're going to learn from them. Right now is definitely not the time to hit the panic button at all," said Velasquez, who threw a season-high 112 pitches over six innings against San Diego. "I foresee a lot of light at the end of the tunnel. I've got a good plan going into the second half. I'm definitely not worried at all."

How will they close out games?

It’s no secret that the Phillies' bullpen was a glaring weakness in 2020 when the unit put up a 7.06 ERA -- the highest by any team since 1930. Though the relief corps has cut that mark by more than two runs to 4.84 this season, that still ranks 26th in the Majors.

But it's more about when they're allowing those runs than it is how many they're allowing. The Phils have 22 blown saves this season -- six more than any other team. They're already closing in on the franchise record for blown saves in an entire season (25 in 2004).

Girardi made a switch at closer just more than a week ago, electing to lean on José Alvarado in place of Héctor Neris. Alvarado responded with a blown save in Game 1 of a June 25 doubleheader against the Mets, and he's allowed six runs over three innings in his three appearances since. On Saturday, Girardi instead turned to Ranger Suárez to lock down the final three outs and the southpaw responded with a 1-2-3 frame for his first career save.

Can Wheeler keep it up?

Wheeler has been the unquestioned bright spot to this point in the Phillies' season. He has emerged as a true ace, posting a 2.05 ERA while racking up an MLB-leading 139 strikeouts en route to being named a first-time All-Star.

Though Wheeler has taken it to another level this season, his breakout actually began in the abbreviated 2020 campaign when he put up a 2.92 ERA over 11 starts. Overall, he has a 2.38 ERA over 28 starts since arriving in Philadelphia.

"It's a very select and small [group]," Wheeler said of earning his first All-Star nod. "That does mean something to me that I am one of the top pitchers right now. I hope I can just continue that into the second half and just stay consistent."

That seems like a safe bet, considering Wheeler has historically been a much better second-half pitcher than first half. He has a 2.90 career ERA after the All-Star break -- more than a full run lower than his pre-All-Star mark (3.91).

Will Nola get (and stay) on track?

After putting up a 3.13 ERA in 79 starts over the last three seasons -- and earning NL Cy Young Award votes in two of the three -- Nola has a 4.44 ERA through 17 starts this season. That includes a 5.22 ERA in 13 starts since tossing his first career nine-inning shutout on April 18 against the Cardinals.

There have been some encouraging signs of late. Nola tossed 7 2/3 scoreless innings against the Yankees on June 13. He tied an MLB record with 10 straight K's as part of a 12-strikeout performance over 5 1/3 scoreless frames against the Mets on June 25. That said, he allowed six runs in just 2 1/3 innings in his one outing between those gems, and he was tagged for seven runs on nine hits in just 4 2/3 innings his last time out on Wednesday -- though he did strike out 11.

With the uncertainty at the back of the rotation, the Phillies will need Nola to rediscover the consistency that made him the staff ace over the past few years. His next chance to do so will come Tuesday at Wrigley Field, when he takes the mound opposite former teammate Jake Arrieta and the Cubs.

Will the offense stay healthy -- and if so, will it hit its stride?

Rhys Hoskins was the only player to appear in each of the Phillies' first 81 games. Only two others -- Alec Bohm (79) and Andrew McCutchen (76) -- played even 70 games, and McCutchen left Sunday’s game in the ninth after his oblique “tightened up,” per Girardi.

The Phils have had to go without key contributors for sizable chunks of the first half. Didi Gregorius missed 47 games. Jean Segura was sidelined for 27. Bryce Harper missed 20. J.T. Realmuto sat out 17, though a few of those were regular off-days. Put it all together, and that quartet has started only 16 games together -- less than one-fifth of the season.

Even when healthy, many of those players haven't produced the way they did last year. Of the seven regular starters who were also with the club last year, five have seen their OPS drop by at least 50 points -- and three have experienced a 100-point dip.

Overall, the Phillies are averaging just 4.3 runs per game and slashing .236/.312/.387 (.699 OPS) as a team. That's down from 5.1 runs per game and a .257/.342/.439 (.781 OPS) slash line last season. They'll need those core players to not only stay healthy, but start swinging the bats the way they did last season when only four teams -- the Dodgers, Braves, Padres and Yankees -- scored more runs.

"We've kind of been up and down, as a team,” Velasquez said. “Coming into this series, taking two of three, that's a good sign. ... Some guys are struggling here and there, but we're coming to the end of the first half and we're going to figure some stuff out."