With Nola on the market, here are Phillies' rotation options

This story was excerpted from Todd Zolecki’s Phillies Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe_ _to get it regularly in your inbox.

The Phillies believed this spring they could sign Aaron Nola to a contract extension.

They floated his camp a nine-figure number that they considered reasonable. Nola’s camp countered with a much higher nine-figure number that they also considered reasonable. Nobody budged from there. Spring Training ended, the regular season started and everybody said they would reconvene after the season.

No harm, no foul, they said.

Now that Nola is on the market, his chances to re-sign with Philadelphia have dimmed. That should not surprise anybody. After all, the Phillies had no competition this spring. Now, they have lots of competition. My close friend Howard Eskin said Tuesday that he hears the Phillies “are probably not going to re-sign Nola.” I have not heard it put in those terms, but I have heard about the challenges Philly faces. Again, they are now competing with multiple teams that are desperate for starting pitching. Nola needs only one of those teams to meet his price, and if that number exceeds $200 million, it is unlikely to be the Phils.

But before anybody frets, the Phillies found themselves in a similar spot with J.T. Realmuto in the 2020-21 offseason. They hoped to sign him to an extension in the spring. Like with Nola, the parties were miles apart. The organization grew pessimistic in the offseason. Fortunately for Philadelphia, the Mets thought James McCann was an equally solid catcher at a more reasonable price. Once McCann signed with the Mets, Realmuto’s options dried up. He signed a five-year, $115.5 million contract with the Phillies in January 2021.

The market won’t dry up so easily for Nola. But if he signs elsewhere, the Phillies believe they have alternatives, possibly starting with Japanese right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto. If the Phils cannot find a suitable replacement via free agency, they might try to make a trade. Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes could be available.

Here are the top free agent starters on the market, listed alphabetically along with their seasonal age for 2024:

RHP Jack Flaherty (age: 28)

Flaherty has a 4.84 ERA over the past two years. He went 1-3 with a 6.75 ERA in nine appearances down the stretch with Baltimore, pitching so poorly that he lost his job in the rotation.

RHP Lucas Giolito (age: 29)

Giolito felt like a possibility for the Phillies in July, but he went to the Angels. He had a 6.89 ERA in six starts in Anaheim. The Angels cut their losses, and the Guardians claimed him off waivers. He had a 7.04 ERA in six starts with Cleveland. Teams must ask themselves: Are they getting the Giolito that pitched poorly with the Angels and Guardians, or the Giolito that enjoyed success with the White Sox?

RHP Sonny Gray (age: 34)

Gray is an American League Cy Young finalist this year. He has a 3.22 ERA in 124 starts over the past five seasons with the Reds and Twins. But is he a fit for the Phillies? First, the Twins made Gray a qualifying offer, which means Philadelphia would forfeit its second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2024 Draft, plus $1 million from its international bonus pool to sign him. Second, is Gray an East Coast guy? It is a fair question to ask. He pitched for the Yankees in 2017-18. He had a 4.90 ERA in 30 appearances (23 starts) in 2018, finishing the season in the bullpen and not making the postseason roster. He later told reporters, “I think everyone kind of knows that New York wasn’t a great fit for me.”

LHP Shōta Imanaga (age: 30)

Phillies fans might remember him if they watched the World Baseball Classic. Imanaga started the gold medal game for Team Japan. He has been one of the best pitchers in the Japan Central League since his 2016 debut.

LHP Jordan Montgomery (age: 31)

Montgomery has made 30-plus starts in each of the past three seasons, going 25-24 with a 3.48 ERA. He had a 2.90 ERA this postseason, helping Texas win the World Series.

LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (age: 31)

Rodriguez opted out of the final three years and $49 million remaining on his contract with Detroit. He is 31-22 with a 4.04 ERA the past three seasons.

LHP Blake Snell (age: 31)

Snell is probably going to be the National League Cy Young Award winner. It would be the second Cy Young of his career. There is a lot to like, but Snell walks a ton of batters, and he has never pitched more than 180 2/3 innings in a season. (Nola has matched or exceeded that number five times in his career.) Snell got a qualifying offer, like Gray.

RHP Marcus Stroman (age: 33)

Stroman opted out of the final year and $21 million remaining on his contract with the Cubs. He went 10-9 with a 3.95 ERA in 27 appearances (25 starts), but he had an 8.29 ERA in his final 11 appearances from June 25 through the end of the regular season. He battled hip and rib cage injuries during that time.

RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (age: 25)

Most people expect the Yankees to outbid the competition for Yamamoto, but the Phillies shouldn’t be counted out. Scouts believe Yamamoto -- who is a two-time Pacific League MVP and a three-time Sawamura Award winner (Japan’s Cy Young), among other accomplishments -- is a No. 1 or 2 starter. Yamamoto is five years, two months and 13 days younger than Nola, too.