Do Phillies have a shot at Japanese star Sasaki?

This story was excerpted from Todd Zolecki’s Phillies Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

The Phillies last November signed Aaron Nola to a seven-year, $172 million contract, then took a shot at Japanese right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

They offered him more than $300 million.

The Phillies fell short, but they knew when they made the offer that they had little chance to sign him. Yamamoto, 26, wanted to play for the Dodgers or Yankees, and no amount of money from the Phillies was going to change his mind. It was true in 2017, too, when Shohei Ohtani was a free agent. The Phillies put together a presentation for Ohtani, touting the organization and Philadelphia. But they heard nothing back from Ohtani’s camp until his agent, Nez Balelo, told them that they did not advance to the second round.

It wasn’t a surprise. Months earlier, Ohtani expressed indifference toward Philly in an interview with MLB.com. Ohtani said he wanted to get a photo in front of the Rocky Balboa statue once he got to the United States. The reporter reminded Ohtani that Philadelphia had a baseball team.

“No, I just want to visit there,” he said.

The Phillies’ failed pursuits of Ohtani and Yamamoto are mentioned because star Japanese right-hander Roki Sasaki, 23, is hitting the free-agent market soon. Last weekend, his NPB team, the Chiba Lotte Marines, stated their intentions to post Sasaki, making him available to every MLB team, including the Phillies. Unlike Yamamoto, Sasaki is not going to make $300 million in his next contract. Because he is under 25 and he has not reached six years of service in a foreign major league, he is subject to MLB's international amateur signing bonus pool rules, setting a cap on his contract.

His contract is going to look more like Ohtani’s first contract ($2.3 million) than Yamamoto’s.

If Sasaki posts before Dec. 2, he can only sign during the 2024 international amateur signing period since a 45-day negotiating window would expire before the '25 signing period begins. The Phillies have only $42,200 in their ‘24 pool, which isn’t good. But if Sasaki posts between Dec. 2-15, he can sign during either period.

The Phillies have $6,261,000 in their 2025 pool.

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand cited a source who said the teams most likely to have a shot at Sasaki are West Coast clubs and those that have signed Japanese players in the past.

(The Phillies have never signed a player straight from NPB.)

The Dodgers and Padres are considered favorites, but the Giants, Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Cubs and Rangers were among teams mentioned by executives. But the fact Sasaki is posting soon means he isn’t only motivated by money.

And because he is limited in how much money he can make, he can legitimately consider every team if he chooses.

Maybe he considers the Phillies -- just because the Dodgers signed Ohtani and Yamamoto last winter doesn’t mean every Japanese player is going to sign with L.A. forever -- who have beefed up their presence in Asia the past few years.

They believe it will eventually pay off.

“There’s just so much talent over there,” Phillies general manager Sam Fuld said in March. “As an organization, we want to put our best foot forward and put ourselves in a spot to land some of that premium talent that exists there.”