How PCA can learn from first taste of The Show

This story was excerpted from Jordan Bastian’s Cubs Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

CHICAGO -- When Jed Hoyer sat down with center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong at the end of last season, the Cubs’ president of baseball operations told the rookie a story about Anthony Rizzo.

Rizzo was a highly touted prospect when he broke into the Majors with the Padres in 2011. The 21-year-old first baseman then struggled mightily, hitting just .141 over 153 plate appearances. Hoyer, who was the general manager in San Diego at the time, delivered a simple message to Rizzo.

“We sat [Rizzo] down at the end of the year,” Hoyer said at the end of this past season, “and said, ‘OK, you saw what it’s about. You have to go make real changes.’”

The situation and message was similar with Crow-Armstrong.

The 21-year-old Crow-Armstrong is ranked by MLB Pipeline as the Cubs’ No. 1 prospect and the No. 12 prospect in baseball. He received a mid-September call to the Majors last season, but his first taste of the game’s highest level included an 0-for-14 showing over 19 plate appearances.

“I told him this: I actually believe that will end up being the single-best thing that could happen to him, in a lot of ways,” Hoyer said.

The Cubs acquired Rizzo from the Padres after Theo Epstein and Hoyer took over Chicago’s front office ahead of the 2012 season. The first baseman returned to the Majors that summer and hit .285 in 87 games for the North Siders. Rizzo then grew into an All-Star, Gold Glover and core piece within a Cubs group that made multiple playoff runs and hoisted a World Series trophy in '16.

The way Hoyer sees things, maybe Rizzo would not have made the swing and approach changes that he did ahead of 2012 without those struggles in ‘11. Crow-Armstrong is known for his elite defense, but he has also excelled as a hitter throughout the Minors. His experience in the big leagues gave him plenty to unpack and adjust as he plans for ‘24.

“It’s obviously one thing hearing it word of mouth and then actually standing in the box and doing it,” Crow-Armstrong said at the end of the season. “I think that’s pretty clear that there’s a bit of a jump. The learning curve that I’ve had at each level, it’s taken a second. Quicker at some levels than others.”

No one is going to reach any sweeping conclusions based on fewer than 15 at-bats in the Majors, and Crow-Armstrong did have a bit of a point. In both 2022 and ‘23, he had brief slumps after a midseason promotion.

When PCA moved up to High-A in 2022, he hit .171 in his first 10 games before hitting at a .315 clip (.874 OPS) over his final 56 games at that level. This past season, following a strong start at Double-A, the outfielder had a six-game lull (.174 average) at Triple-A Iowa before hitting .291 (.835 OPS) in his last 28 games.

Overall last season, Crow-Armstrong turned in a .283/.365/.511 slash line with 20 homers, 26 doubles, seven triples, 82 RBIs, 98 runs and 37 steals in 107 games between Double-A and Triple-A. He ended with 129 strikeouts against 46 walks in 500 plate appearances in the Minors in ‘23.

Down the stretch with the Cubs, Crow-Armstrong’s playing time was sporadic as former manager David Ross was trying to balance a playoff chase with furthering the center fielder’s development. PCA was confident that more exposure will get him back to his usual level.

“You’ll start to have more prior information on guys before you face them,” Crow-Armstrong said. “I’ll remember what certain guys look like. I’ll see certain guys really well, and others are going to be more of a challenge for me. I think in that sense, it doesn’t really change all that much. I think recognizing that will hopefully set me on that trajectory again.”

The Cubs will take a close look at Crow-Armstrong’s offseason adjustments when he arrives at Spring Training and competes for a spot on the Opening Day roster. In the meantime, Chicago is still exploring a reunion with center fielder Cody Bellinger, while trying to form contingency plans to avoid rushing PCA before he is deemed ready.

“He’s such an exceptional defender,” Hoyer said. “He’s going to prevent so many runs defensively. I think as he refines his baserunning and stealing bases, he’s going to have such an impact on the bases. He is a good hitter. Certainly, he probably realized he has to make certain changes offensively.

“And I think realizing that now is really a key. This is the big leagues. This is the best league there is. And the pitching is a lot better than it is in the Minors. I think seeing that up close and personal [helps].”