Keeping or trading Pete Alonso 'one of the toughest calls'

Ever since he broke into the league with a bang in 2019, Pete Alonso has been the face of the Mets franchise. Will his time in Queens come to an end in the next six weeks?

Alonso is slated to become a free agent at the end of the season, and with the Mets entering play Thursday with a 29-37 record, it’s reasonable to assume that president of baseball operations David Stearns could be a seller by the time the Trade Deadline rolls around on July 30.

Sure, the Mets are only 3 1/2 games out of a National League Wild Card spot despite a record that has them 16 1/2 games behind the Phillies in the National League East, but there are six teams standing between them and the final Wild Card spot, with only the Rockies and Marlins carrying worse records in the NL. FanGraphs lists the Mets’ chances of making the playoffs at 13%, odds that will drop unless the club is able to start turning things around.

How an Alonso trade would impact their postseason chances is something to consider. But the bigger question for the Mets when it comes to Alonso is this: Would trading him decrease their chances of re-signing him as a free agent if they want to bring the slugger back this offseason?

“They have the money to sign whoever they want, whenever they want,” an NL executive said. “The Wild Card in the whole thing is whether they, as an organization, are willing to punt on the second half of the season or whether they want to bet on their high-dollar guys to play better and try to make a late push.”

The executive called the Mets’ Alonso quandary “one of the toughest calls I can remember in a long time for any team.” Alonso’s connection with the fanbase might make his departure unpopular, but if the Mets can make their club better for the subsequent years, a trade might very well be what’s best for the franchise.

If, of course, they can get good value back for a player with 206 career home runs in his first 750 games.

Alonso’s contract year began in mediocre fashion, as he hit eight home runs with 16 RBIs and a .205/.293/.417 slash line (.710 OPS) in his first 35 games. The power production (six homers, 16 RBIs) has been similar in the 31 games since May 7, though his .268/.338/.512 slash line (.850 OPS) has been a significant improvement.

Considering that only five teams in the Majors stood more than 5 1/2 games out of a playoff spot entering Thursday, the number of sellers might be lower than in most years, leaving a limited number of power threats available this summer. Would the Mets get enough in return for Alonso to make a trade of their popular slugger worthwhile?

“I think there is a real question as to Alonso’s value across the league right now,” an NL executive said. “I don’t think the return on him would be as big as it might seem initially, so they may not feel compelled even if they get an offer. But David is incredibly smart and if he’s able to leverage some value in the form of a trade, I could see him doing that.”

Alonso is expected to seek a huge contract in free agency, one larger than those signed by fellow first basemen Freddie Freeman (six years, $162 million) and Matt Olson (eight years, $168 million, signed with one year remaining prior to free agency). He’ll have plenty of competition at his position, as Christian Walker and Paul Goldschmidt will be free agents, while Cody Bellinger and Rhys Hoskins can opt out of their deals to test the market again.

As much as Alonso has embraced New York since his arrival, it might be beneficial for him to be traded, as he wouldn’t be eligible for a qualifying offer. Should the Mets hang on to Alonso and he departs as a free agent, the club would receive a compensatory Draft pick after the fourth round, setting the bar for a potential trade return.

That qualifying offer could work to New York’s benefit, as the market often cools for players who have received a qualifying offer because the signing team loses a Draft pick for signing them. (Just look at Bellinger last winter.) The Mets, of course, would not need to give up a pick to re-sign Alonso, which might make it easier for them to agree to a deal, similar to Bellinger with the Cubs.

“They will probably trade him if they can get real value,” an American League executive said. “Their QO Draft pick isn’t worth as much.”

“I do think they should trade him if they can net a return they value above their potential fourth-round qualifying offer pick,” another NL executive said. “That said, it’s not a slam dunk that they deal him. There’s a real possibility Alonso would accept the QO and enter the free-agent market after 2025 rather than 2024 based on the other first base/DH options he would be competing against in the coming free-agent market. That’s not a terrible outcome for New York.”

While many clubs look to trade players on expiring contracts rather than settle on Draft-pick compensation, the fear of Alonso walking at the end of the season shouldn’t be much of a factor for the Mets given Steve Cohen’s ability to sign another big bat to play first base.

“It’s hard to argue that they absolutely have to trade assets before they walk in free agency,” the executive said. “Unlike a lot of clubs, they can replace guys who leave.”

While most executives we spoke with believe that the Mets should -- and ultimately will -- trade Alonso, one AL executive thinks the Mets should try to extend him before making any final trade decisions.

“I don’t think they should trade him,” the exec said. “I think they should use him as a piece to build around. However, if they can’t get something done on an extension by the Deadline, then yes, they should move on because they lose a lot of leverage.”

Whatever happens with the Mets over the next six weeks, Alonso’s name figures to be a prominent one between now and July 30.