Can anyone challenge Alonso for Derby crown?
The champ: Pete Alonso
The challengers: Kyle Schwarber, Corey Seager, Juan Soto, José Ramírez, Julio Rodríguez, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Albert Pujols.
The question: Who can beat Polar Bear Pete in the Home Run Derby?
• Stacked Derby field set for LA power show
Alonso has dominated the Derby, winning the last two and hitting an all-time record 131 home runs in the process. He's going for an unprecedented third straight Home Run Derby crown on Monday, and he's the favorite. This is who has the best chance to take him down.
Here are Alonso's biggest challengers in the 2022 Home Run Derby field, ranked.
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7) Albert Pujols
1st-half HR: 6
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Pujols is going to be the oldest Home Run Derby contestant ever at age 42, and in his final season, his slugging ability isn't what it once was -- Pujols' six home runs entering the Home Run Derby are tied for the fewest of any Derby participant with Ivan Rodriguez in 2005.
And even though he's competing in his fifth Home Run Derby, Pujols has never won one, even in his prime. The closest he came was making the finals all the way back in 2003, his first Derby, but he lost to the Angels' Garret Anderson. The only hitters to appear in as many Home Run Derbies as Pujols -- Ken Griffey Jr., Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Prince Fielder, Barry Bonds and David Ortiz -- all won at least one Derby.
6) Corey Seager
1st-half HR: 22
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Seager hopes to get a boost from the "home" crowd at Dodger Stadium, which surely still loves him after the shortstop blossomed into a star in L.A. and helped lead the Dodgers to the 2020 World Series title, winning NLCS and World Series MVP that October.
All of Seager's years hitting at Dodger Stadium could be his biggest edge in this Home Run Derby. Seager has slugged .533 at Dodger Stadium in his career, with 59 home runs.
Maybe Seager can pull off the upset with the fans behind him, but he's not really the type of big basher you'd favor in a Home Run Derby -- in real game action, he's so good because of his line-drive gap-to-gap ability, not raw power.
In Seager's lone Home Run Derby in 2016, he did fine, but it's not the type of performance you're looking for from someone who's going to challenge Alonso. Seager did hit 15 homers in the first round, third most of the eight hitters, but not enough to beat his opponent, Mark Trumbo, who hit 16. Seager hit only two homers of 440-plus feet, and his average distance of 406 feet was on the lower end of the contestants.
At least he's coming into the Derby with his home run swing hot -- Seager hit seven home runs in 10 games entering the final weekend before the All-Star break, including a streak of five straight games with a homer.
5) José Ramírez
1st-half HR: 19
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If there's one thing Ramírez has going for him, it's that he has tons of dead-pull power … and the easiest way to hit a home run is to pull the ball in the air.
Ramírez broke out as a power hitter in 2017. Since then, he's pulled 144 of his 163 home runs -- over 88%.
No one has more pulled home runs than Ramírez over that time (Nolan Arenado is next with 137), and of the hitters with at least 100 homers since 2017, no one has pulled a higher percentage of them (former Derby participant Alex Bregman is next at 82%).
J-Ram knows how to drive the ball in the air. This season, his ground-ball rate is just 31%, and since 2018, just a third of the balls he's hit have been on the ground, among the 10 lowest ground-ball rates in baseball alongside hitters like Mike Trout and Mookie Betts. His average launch angle this season is 21.9 degrees, seventh highest in the Majors. So you know he's going to launch at the Derby.
4) Julio Rodríguez
1st-half HR: 16
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There's been a little bit of a rookie surge in the Home Run Derby recently, with both Aaron Judge (2017) and Alonso (2019) winning, so don't count out the Mariners phenom.
He'll get the benefit of being a righty slugger hitting at Dodger Stadium, which is one of the most favorable parks in baseball to hit home runs as a righty. Per Statcast's park factors, right-handed hitters hit about 46% more homers at Chavez Ravine, while the park plays neutral for lefty home run hitters. Only Great American Ball Park is more favorable to righties. Of course, Alonso will have that advantage, too. But maybe his biggest challenges will come from fellow righties.
We do know J-Rod can hit rockets -- his hardest home run this season was 114 mph off the bat, the hardest homer hit this year by anyone in the Derby, just ahead of Schwarber, Acuña and Alonso.
3) Kyle Schwarber
1st-half HR: 29
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Schwarber's home runs are no-doubt home runs. When he gets ahold of one, it's true home run power.
Schwarber has 13 no-doubt home runs this season -- homers that would be out at all 30 MLB stadiums -- fourth most of any hitter behind Judge, Austin Riley and Giancarlo Stanton, and the most of any hitter in the 2022 Derby field, ahead of, you guessed it, Alonso. He's also hit the longest homer this year of anyone in the Derby, 468 feet.
Most no-doubter HR, 2022 Derby field
Schwarber -- 13 (4th-most in MLB)
Alonso -- 10 (T-10th-most in MLB)
Soto -- 8
Acuña -- 7
Ramírez -- 7
Rodríguez -- 6
Seager -- 5
Pujols -- 3
Schwarber also has by far the most barrels of anyone in the Derby, 47, second in the Majors only to home run leader Judge. Barrels are Statcast's top level of contact -- balls hit at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle to be home runs. The next-closest Derby contestant is Rodríguez with 33. Schwarber is barreling 21.9% of the balls he's hit this season, also second-best behind Judge, meaning when he makes contact, it's going to be dangerous contact. That should play in the Derby. Alonso has 37 barrels and a 13.9% barrel rate.
Schwarber even has a strong Home Run Derby performance to his name. In 2018, his only Derby until now, Schwarber almost won, falling in the finals to Bryce Harper, who tied Schwarber at 18 at the buzzer and walked off in bonus time. Schwarber first beat Alex Bregman, 16-15, and Rhys Hoskins, 21-20. His 15 homers of 440-plus feet in the Derby were tied for the most with Harper, and his average home run distance of 426 feet and exit velocity of 104.6 mph were the highest in the Derby.
2) Ronald Acuña Jr.
1st-half HR: 8
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• Acuña vs. Alonso: Tale of the Tape for '22 Derby
Acuña has the first shot at Alonso this year -- he'll match up against Pete in Round 1 -- and he could win it. Here's why.
If you're trying to find a Derby threat to Alonso, you want someone who can really hit the long ball. No wallscrapers. Well, Acuña hits the long ball. He leads the Majors in average home run distance this season by a full 10 feet -- and the two hitters he's ahead of are Rockies, who have the big benefit of slugging at Coors Field.
Longest avg. HR distance, 2022
Min. 5 HR
1. Ronald Acuña Jr.: 437 feet
2. Ryan McMahon: 427 feet
3. (tie) C.J. Cron: 423 feet
3. (tie) Jake Burger: 423 feet
5. Keston Hiura: 421 feet
His average home run distance is 24 feet longer than any other player in the Derby (Schwarber is next at 413 feet, and Alonso is at 401 feet), and his average home run exit velocity of 109.9 mph is also the highest, ahead of Alonso, Schwarber and Soto all at 107.3 mph.
Acuña has also hit the longest individual home run of any of this year's Derby participants: a 495-footer on Sept. 25, 2020, which is tied for the sixth-longest homer under Statcast tracking.
Then there's Acuña's actual Home Run Derby performance -- he nearly took down Alonso in 2019. Acuña and Alonso matched up in the semifinals after Acuña dispatched Josh Bell with 25 homers in Round 1. The Braves star followed that with 19 more against Alonso, but Alonso tied him with under 10 seconds left and hit a "walk-off" homer as time expired. Acuña hit 15 home runs of 440-plus feet in the 2019 Derby, the same number as Alonso.
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1) Juan Soto
1st-half HR: 20
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Soto put on a show in the 2021 Home Run Derby at Coors Field, even though he didn't win the whole thing. His epic first-round slugfest against Shohei Ohtani was one of the most memorable matchups in Derby history … and Soto won it. When Soto and Ohtani went to a three-swing swing-off, Soto homered on all three to beat the eventual AL MVP.
Soto's 31 homers in that round are the fourth most in any single round in Home Run Derby history -- he and Alonso are two of the four hitters with a 30-homer round, and they're the only two in the 2022 Derby. Soto also set the record for the longest Home Run Derby home run since Statcast started tracking in 2015 -- he hit a 520-foot homer in that first round against Ohtani, surpassing the 513-foot record entering 2021 set by Judge at Marlins Park in 2017. In the Derby overall, Soto hit 11 home runs 475 feet or farther.
He ultimately fell to Alonso in the second round, but if they have a rematch in 2022? Soto just might be the one to take down the Polar Bear.