NL race tightens in latest Rookie of the Year poll

Time is running out for MLB's best rookies to bolster their case for why they deserve to be named Rookie of the Year.

In MLB.com’s latest Rookie of the Year poll, a very tight race between two first-year phenoms is developing in the National League. Meanwhile, there appears to be one player separating himself from the pack in the American League.

A panel of 30 MLB.com experts cast their ballots, with rookies receiving vote points on a 5-4-3-2-1 scale -- five points for a first-place vote, four points for a second-place vote and so on. Here are the results.

All stats updated through Sunday.

American League

1. Colton Cowser, Orioles (17 first-place votes)

Cowser could be the Orioles’ eighth Rookie of the Year with a strong finish to this season. He would follow in the footsteps of teammate and fellow LEGO fan Gunnar Henderson, who took home the award last season. The 2004-05 A’s are the most recent AL club to have back-to-back Rookie of the Year winners (Bobby Crosby, Huston Street).

The 24-year-old Cowser, who leads AL rookies with 19 home runs, has typically batted leadoff for the O's since July 28 and has produced a .274/.325/.460 slash line with 10 extra-base hits in 28 games since. He has done stellar work on defense as well, amassing 10 outs above average. That is the most among AL rookies and ranks tied for seventh among all outfielders.

2. Luis Gil, Yankees (2 first-place votes)

After dominating hitters through the season’s first couple of months, Gil stumbled in June and early July, permitting 20 earned runs, 14 walks and four homers over a 20 1/3-inning span. However, the fireballing right-hander recovered over his next five starts as he pitched to a 1.96 ERA, racked up 36 strikeouts in 28 frames and held hitters to a .568 OPS.

Gil’s momentum has been stalled by a lower back strain that landed him on the injured list last week. The ailment is believed to be minor, so he should return in September and add to his impressive numbers. Gil is at the top of the leaderboard among AL rookies in wins (12), innings (124 2/3), opponents’ batting average (.185) and strikeouts (144). The last Yankees rookie to tally more K’s in a season was Ron Guidry in 1977 (176).

3. Mason Miller, A’s (9 first-place votes)

At or near the top of the league in … well, a whole bunch of categories, Miller has shut down opposing offenses all year long, highlighted by 82 strikeouts and a 1.80 ERA over 50 innings. The right-hander is riding a 12 1/3-inning scoreless streak, dating back to July 10. That stretch was interrupted when Miller fractured a finger on his non-pitching hand, but he hasn’t missed a beat since returning from the injured list on Aug. 7

A lot is made of Miller’s 103 mph fastball, and deservedly so. But his slider is just as potent. That high-80s offering has generated 38 strikeouts in 69 at-bats and only one extra-base hit. That pitch has a .086 expected batting average, which is the second-lowest on any pitch this season (min. 50 PA ending on one pitch type).

4. Wilyer Abreu, Red Sox (2 first-place votes)

On July 9, Abreu snapped out of a 0-for-17 funk that dropped his OPS to .763 -- its lowest point since mid-April -- with a 430-foot dinger in a victory over the A’s. From there, the 25-year-old has been one of the best hitters in the sport, slashing .292/.369/.613. That .982 OPS is tied for 13th-best in MLB (min. 100 PA).

Abreu, acquired in the 2022 trade that sent catcher Christian Vázquez to the Astros, leads AL rookies in extra-base hits (43). The lefty swinger has made solid contact throughout the season (92nd-percentile barrel rate, 85th-percentile hard-hit rate), and he has supplemented his offensive value with quality play in the outfield (three outs above average).

5. Austin Wells, Yankees

Juan Soto and Aaron Judge? Yeah, they are pretty good. But let’s give some shine to the guy who has often been slotted directly behind them in the Yankees’ lineup over the past five weeks. Wells began getting consistent starts in the cleanup spot on July 20, and his 139 wRC+ since that date trails only the Astros’ Yainer Diaz among AL catchers (min. 100 PA). Wells has also batted .326 and driven in 17 runs over his previous 25 games.

A first-round Draft pick in 2020, Wells didn’t earn great defensive grades as a prospect, but he has worked hard on that part of his game, as evidenced by his nine catcher framing runs. That ties him with teammate Jose Trevino for the second-most at the position.

Others receiving votes: Ceddanne Rafaela (Red Sox), Cade Smith (Guardians), Simeon Woods Richardson (Twins), Colt Keith (Tigers), Nolan Schanuel (Angels), Spencer Horwitz (Blue Jays), Mitch Spence (A's), Wyatt Langford (Rangers), Spencer Arrighetti (Astros)

National League

1. Paul Skenes, Pirates (19 first-place votes)

Skenes has been the overwhelming NL favorite in this poll for a few months, and he's done nothing to diminish the enthusiasm. He's allowed two earned runs or fewer in 11 of his past 12 starts, and his 2.16 ERA would lead MLB if he had enough innings to qualify. Similarly, his 11.25 K/9 ratio would be third-best in baseball if he had the requisite number of innings.

Overall, Skenes is 8-2 on the season with 130 strikeouts in 104 innings, and the Pirates are 11-6 in his starts. He continues to be must-watch entertainment.

2. Jackson Merrill, Padres (11 first-place votes)

Speaking of must-watch entertainment ... hello, Mr. Merrill. There's a very realistic scenario in which Merrill finds himself atop this poll by season's end -- because he seems to just get better.

Merrill either outright leads or is tied for the lead among MLB qualified rookies in homers (19), hits (130), RBIs (72), triples (six), runs (65) and games played (127). He's also displayed a flair for the dramatic, having hit five game-tying or go-ahead homers in the ninth inning or later this season -- more than any other player. He's a big reason why the Padres have the second-best record in baseball (24-9) since the All-Star break.

3. Jackson Chourio, Brewers

Chourio has established himself not only as one of the top rookies in the 2024 class, but as one of the standout players in the NL. His bat plays anywhere in the lineup, which is why he's hit everywhere but cleanup for the Brewers at some point this season. He hits for average (.273) and power (15 homers), steals bases (18) with elite speed and plays strong outfield defense (five Outs Above Average).

Though none of his numbers jumps out as otherworldly, it's the combination of his five tools that proves his value.

4. Shota Imanaga, Cubs

Imanaga keeps plugging along as arguably the best member of the Cubs' rotation. The lefty began the season as one of the biggest stories in baseball when he didn't allow an earned run through his first three starts. That was an unsustainable pace, but what he's shown in the months since is still plenty impressive and worthy of award consideration.

Imanaga is 10-3 with a 3.08 ERA and 140 strikeouts in 140 1/3 innings. The Cubs are 18-6 when he pitches, which any team will take any time.

5. Tyler Fitzgerald, Giants

Fitzgerald has played the second-fewest games (69) among qualified NL rookies, but he's certainly made some of the loudest noise. He leads his rookie class in average (.298), on-base percentage (.353), slugging (.567) and, of course, OPS (.920).

Fitzgerald's 14 homers are tied for second-most among Giants regulars and his 16 stolen bases lead the team. At one point in July, he homered in five straight games. His performance so far has Giants fans wide-eyed about what a full season of at-bats might look like.

Others receiving votes: Masyn Winn (Cardinals), Michael Busch (Cubs), Gavin Stone (Dodgers), Tobias Myers (Brewers), José Buttó (Mets)