Should Cards consider trading the reigning MVP?

By any measure, the Cardinals’ 2023 season has been a major disappointment. They entered the season considered by many to be favorites in the NL Central, yet their winning percentage is hovering around .400 and Fangraphs Playoff Odds give them less than a 17% chance of reaching the postseason. But you don’t need much math to see how bad things are going for the Cardinals. The team just hasn’t looked right.

While you’ll forgive every other team in baseball, and especially those in the NL Central, for not shedding many tears for the Cardinals’ woes, these are unprecedented times for St. Louis fans. The Cardinals haven’t had a losing record since 2007, and they haven’t been this bad since 1995, a year so bad that they fired Joe Torre in the middle of the season. This is as bad as it has gotten in St. Louis in a long, long time. (And remember, they haven’t won an NLCS game since 2014, so it’s not like they’ve been postseason world-beaters in recent years.)

There’s still a chance the Cardinals figure out the myriad problems they have and crawl back into the division race: This is the NL Central, after all. But it sure doesn’t look like it. I have a suggestion that makes a ton of sense. It’s a hard one to swallow, especially considering how much this player means to Cardinals fans (and, for what it’s worth, how many jerseys of this player the person writing this column owns). But it might help this frustrating Cardinals team be the bridge to the next great one. So here goes:

The Cardinals should trade Paul Goldschmidt. Soon.

Yes, I know: We are talking about the reigning NL MVP here, one who might just end up in Cooperstown someday. We are also talking about a player who is absolutely not the problem for this Cardinals team: He’s having another terrific year, essentially the only Cardinal the team was counting on this year who hasn’t disappointed. The Cardinals are the team that trades for players like Goldschmidt, not the team that trades him away.

But if the Cardinals are looking to shake up their organization, to restock their team with the young talent (especially the young pitching talent) it so desperately needs, to take advantage of a trade market that is going to be thirsting for talent at the Deadline … trading Goldschmidt is their best option. It’ll hurt. It’ll hurt a lot. But to get something of value, you have to give up something of value. And nothing’s more valuable than an MVP.

(We’ll acknowledge here that Goldschmidt has a no-trade clause, but there is a long history of players waiving no-trade clauses to get to a contender, especially late in their careers when they are chasing their first ring. If there is motivation, there is no reason to think a deal a deal could not happen.)

With all of that out of the way, let’s look at it from both angles: Why it makes sense for the Cardinals … and what teams might immediately line up for Goldschmidt.

Why It Makes Sense for the Cardinals

1. Goldschmidt is a free agent after next season … and he’s older than you think

In March 2019, the Cardinals signed Goldschmidt to a five-year extension that ends after the 2024 season. It’s a deal the Cardinals have to be elated about it: $22 million a year, with one of those years being an MVP season and the guy still raking well into Year Four. But the value they’ve gotten so far shouldn’t lull them into forgetting a fundamental fact about Goldschmidt: He’ll turn 36 years old in September. That means he'll be 37 when he hits free agency. Needless to say, signing a 37-year-old first baseman to a long-term contract isn’t a smart play. Will the Cardinals really extend Goldschmidt into his 40s? If they’re going to lose him to free agency anyway -- because you’ve got to think some team would outbid them for a one-or-two-year deal -- shouldn’t they get what they can out of him now? After all: It does not look like they are making the playoffs this year.

2. They need to find a way to get good (young) pitchers

The Cardinals’ primary problem has been their starting pitching. There’s little reason to think that’s going to be any less of a problem next year. Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty are both free agents and will both demand decent-to-better-than-decent contracts. Adam Wainwright is retiring. Matthew Liberatore is unproven, as are any pitchers in the Minors. And Miles Mikolas will be 35 in August. How are the Cardinals going to fill all those rotation holes? They’re not. Which means 2024 may well be as much of a struggle as this year has been. If the Cardinals aren’t a contender this year, and their starting pitching is projecting to be worse next year, what’s the point of keeping Goldschmidt around for a team that may finish below .500 again?

3. The Cardinals have their first baseman of the future already, even if he’s not playing first base yet

Jordan Walker has been up-and-down at the plate for the Cardinals so far, but not in any way that makes you nervous about his long-term potential: This is (hopefully) a star in the making. But it is certainly up in the air what position he’s going to play for the next decade. Nolan Arenado isn’t going anywhere, so third base, Walker’s natural position, is out. And Walker’s struggles in the outfield have been well documented -- again, totally reasonable for someone just starting out there. But at a certain level, first base sure looks like a place like Walker—a huge guy, a big target, but with natural nimbleness -- could park for many years to come. You could get Walker daily reps out there right now and help clear up the crowded and chaotic outfield situation. The more and more you think about it, the more sense Walker at first base makes, doesn’t it?

4. He has far more trade value than anyone else on the team

If the Cardinals turn into sellers, they have a few pieces to offer. Flaherty and Montgomery would help out any rotation. Jordan Hicks is the sort of electric arm that every team wants in their bullpen in October. Even Paul DeJong and Chris Stratton could have some value. But, really, none of those players is going to bring back that much in a trade. But Goldschmidt? The reigning MVP inserted into a lineup for not just one postseason, but potentially two? At an extremely reasonable salary for a superstar? Assuming Shohei Ohtani doesn’t hit the market, Goldschmidt would instantly become the most sought after player in baseball -- by a wide margin. The Cardinals need young pitching in the worst way. Trading Goldschmidt could get them two top-100 prospects, couldn’t it? The Cardinals may never have as valuable a trade chip again.

So, you agree now, right? It’s a good idea, no? So, then:

Teams That Would Want Goldschmidt …

Well, all of them, obviously: He’s the MVP. But here are some teams who’d be on the line with the Cardinals awfully quickly.

Giants: The team still needs a superstar, and he’d profile nicely in that lineup. They are in the thick of the Wild Card race and happen to have one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, lefty Kyle Harrison, ranked No. 15 overall by MLB Pipeline.

Angels: If you’re going to make a full-on last run of it with Shohei and Mike Trout, there’s no better help out there for them than Goldy. And having him for 2024 would ease some of the sting if Ohtnai bolts as a free agent (as many assume he will). All this team has done is Draft pitchers in recent years, so there’d presumably be some depth to target in this system.

Marlins: It feels weird to think of the Cardinals trading a veteran to the Marlins for their young players -- but he is kind of exactly what the upstart Marlins could use most, and four of their top five prospects are pitchers.

Phillies: He could fill the void created by Rhys Hoskins injury, and with Hoskins slated for free agency this winter, Goldy would slot in nicely for 2024. Perhaps most importantly, we know that president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has never been shy about trading for established stars, and Philly's top three prospects are pitchers.

Orioles. You can’t find better veteran leadership for a young, up-and-coming team than the Goldschmidt. The strength of their farm system, however, is on the position-player side.

Mets: Hey, sure, why not at this point? Though like Baltimore, New York’s best prospects are hitters.

Padres: This is perhaps the most underachieving team in baseball other than the Cardinals. But they’ve still got lots of talent and lots of time. Can you imagine Goldschmidt in the middle of this lineup? Is it Tatis/Soto/Goldschmidt/Machado/Bogaerts? Goodness. (Admittedly, they have given up a lot of talent in recent years to acquire the likes of Juan Soto, Blake Snell, Josh Hader, and Yu Darvish, so they might not have the kind of pitchers St. Louis wants.)

It is against the very character of the Cardinals to make a trade like this, which is why they probably won’t consider it. Cardinals fans will howl just thinking about it. (Know that I’m sort of one of them.) But staying in character, being conservative and hoping everything will work out because _we’re the Cardinals_, is exactly how the team got in this mess in the first place. The Cardinals are at their lowest point in years. Trading their biggest star is the first step in digging out.