10 takeaways for Padres from GM Meetings

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Hitting send as I board my flight back from Arizona and this week's General Managers Meetings. Here are 10 takeaways from the week in Scottsdale:

1. Close to a hire
The Padres’ obligations at the GM Meetings took precedent this week. The event marks the start of the Hot Stove season. It's where front offices lay the groundwork for future trades and free agent signings. For a couple days, at least, the managerial search could wait.

"The GM Meetings are more on some player-personnel stuff," said Padres GM A.J. Preller. "We'll pick [the manager search] up here in the next couple days, as well. Same spot. When we feel like we have the right person lined up, then we'll go ahead and make a move. But we're still working through the process."

Nonetheless, it sounds as though the Padres are nearing a resolution. Internally, senior advisor Mike Shildt and bench coach/offensive coordinator Ryan Flaherty have been interviewed. So, too, has Angels infield coach Benji Gil, who managed Team Mexico to a surprise trip to the World Baseball Classic semifinals.

There's always a possibility that a surprise candidate or two could emerge. (Perhaps the sudden arrival of David Ross into the pool of available managers changes things.) But it sounds as though the process is winding down.

"We'll make a decision here at some point," Preller said. "I can't say it'll be in the next 24 hours. But I would say here over the course of the weekend into the early part of next week, we should be able to line up."

2. Looking internally?
Each of Preller's first three full-time managerial hires came from outside the organization. In the cases of Bob Melvin and Andy Green, Preller hadn't previously worked with either. Those relationships didn't pan out.

Perhaps, then, it's not a coincidence that two of the three favorites for the job are internal candidates -- Shildt and Flaherty.

"We definitely think about that," Preller said. "… People that know our players, know our situation, know our organization -- that is an advantage, for sure. But we've enjoyed the last week, sitting there, talking to outside candidates that bring different perspective, as well. So it's not a prerequisite."

3. Clarity on Wacha, Martinez
When Preller spoke to the media on Wednesday, it marked the first time he'd done so since the team declined matching two-year, $32 million options on pitchers Michael Wacha and Nick Martinez. When they declined subsequent player options, they became free agents.

"To make that the first move of the offseason, I think we just weren't comfortable at those price points," Preller said. "... We're very open to those guys coming back. But I think, also, the challenge for us is going to find more."

4. State of the rotation
Wacha and Martinez aren't the only two starters set to depart. Seth Lugo declined his player option, and Blake Snell is expected to decline his qualifying offer, making all four free agents.

The pitching market this offseason is expected to be extremely competitive, and the Padres must add at least three starters to the mix.

"It's going to be a challenge," Preller said. "It's a supply-and-demand thing, and there's a lot of teams looking for pitching, for sure."

In essence, the Padres need to find the 2024 version of Wacha and Lugo -- buy-low options who pitched their way into more lucrative deals this winter.

5. Health update
Some positive rotation news: Preller noted that Yu Darvish is expected to avoid arthroscopic elbow surgery and that he and Joe Musgrove should be fully available for the start of the 2024 season. Both ended the 2023 season on the injured list, Darvish with a stress reaction in his right elbow and Musgrove with inflammation of his right shoulder capsule.

6. Niebla returns
Preller has been understandably hesitant to make declarative statements about his coaching staff before hiring a manager. But he confirmed on Wednesday that Ruben Niebla, who is under contract for the 2024 season, would return as pitching coach.

7. Infield musical chairs?
When the Padres signed Xander Bogaerts last winter, they made it clear he’d be their shortstop in 2023. Notably, they didn’t offer any assurances beyond that.

A year later, Ha-Seong Kim remains one of the sport’s premier defensive shortstops. He was similarly excellent at second, but that pushed Jake Cronenworth to first, limiting his value.

“We’re blessed to have multiple shortstops in the infield and guys that can move around and play different spots,” Preller said. “But Xander played really well. Honestly, that’s a conversation that’ll start with the manager when we make that hire, get his take on what the best setup is for us.”

8. Bullpen moves coming
Even with Josh Hader on the market, Preller said the Padres don’t necessarily need to add a closer. But they need relievers. Plural.

“We focus more on guys that have quality arms, quality stuff, quality command,” Preller said. “Guys that have real makeup that could pitch in some big spots. Yeah, we probably need to add to that here in the next couple of weeks.”

If the Padres don’t sign a lockdown closer like Hader, Preller mentioned Robert Suarez -- Hader’s setup man the past two seasons -- as a candidate for that role.

9. Grisham’s status
The deadline for teams to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players is Nov. 17. Trent Grisham is one of the most intriguing players ahead of that deadline. He’s due a raise on his $3 million contract from last season.

Grisham is a two-time Gold Glove Award-winning center fielder, but across the past two seasons, he has combined for a .191/.300/.347 slash line. Would the Padres consider trading him? Would they non-tender him? Maybe. But on Wednesday, Preller threw his support behind his center fielder.

“The consistency factor for the last two years just hasn’t been there,” Preller said. “We’ve got to figure out: How do we get that consistently out of Grish? Because he’s an impact performer up the middle, if we’re able to see the offense … with the elite defense.”

10. Soto-palooza
The Juan Soto trade rumors aren’t going to subside until he either signs a long-term extension to remain in San Diego or is traded.

And who knows? Maybe we reach the 2024 Trade Deadline and neither has happened. But until then, this story is going to dominate headlines. That was probably obvious before this week. But considering the sheer number of reporters from different cities who were eager to quiz Preller on Soto’s status, get ready for a winter’s worth of Soto rumors.

Here’s what I wrote on that subject.