Think the Dodgers are a slam dunk to win the NL West? Think again

The Padres traded Juan Soto to the Yankees last winter, and now Soto has combined with Aaron Judge to give the Yankees the most formidable batting combination in the whole sport. It’s only August and already Soto and Judge have their fans talking about things that Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig once did when they were hitting back to back in the Yankees' batting order.

The Padres? It seemed not very long ago that this would be another season when the Dodgers would run away from them and everybody else in the NL West. By June 18, they were three games under .500 and a big, fat 10 games behind the Dodgers. It seemed that balance in the baseball universe was pretty much the way it has mostly been for a long time in Southern California, along with the balance of power in their division.

Except now the Padres are as hot as anybody since the All-Star break, and just put it on the Dodgers in a two-game series at Petco Park. They now go into the weekend just 4 1/2 games out of first place, as close as they have been to the Dodgers in three months.

So not only have they conceded absolutely nothing to the Dodgers, they are suddenly going at them hard, picking up not only Tanner Scott, the best ninth-inning guy on the market, from the Marlins at the Trade Deadline, but Jason Adam from the Rays as well.

“Our goals haven’t changed at any point during the season,” Padres manager Mike Shildt said the other day. “It’s been to win the division.”

It is something that Padres haven’t done since 2006. Two years ago, despite finishing 22 games behind the Dodgers during the regular season, the Padres beat them in the NL Division Series before losing to the Phillies in the NL Championship Series, the first time they had made it that far since ’98, when they made the World Series for the second time in franchise history. At least in ‘22 they were knocking on the door again, and a year ago, they were the ones taking a big swing by trading for Soto. Then they finished at 82-80 and missed the postseason despite a late run at a Wild Card spot.

Only now, here they are. If they continue this run they’ve made over the past two months of the regular season, maybe the great race in August and September might not turn out to be Soto and Judge and the Yankees going up against the Orioles in the AL East. It might be the one on the other side of the country between the Padres and the Dodgers, who San Diego has been spoiling to take down at the top of the division for what feels like forever.

You can see how and why it might happen, starting with Shildt’s deep and balanced batting order. Jurickson Profar has played like the team’s star this season, with 18 homers, 70 RBIs and a .304 batting average. Then comes Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. Machado has 16 homers so far, and Tatis has 14. Jake Cronenworth has 14, and rookie Jackson Merrill has 13 to go with a .286 average. They have a base-hit machine like Luis Arraez. Even Xander Bogaerts, now playing second in San Diego instead of the short he played over all those years with the Red Sox, is quietly hitting .271.

And to think starting pitching has a chance to be a strength the rest of the way in San Diego. The Padres’ ace is Dylan Cease (11-8), who has been as hot as his team has been. On July 13, he pitched six one-hit innings against the Braves, striking out 11. Then he struck out 10 Guardians in seven scoreless innings before pitching a no-hitter against the Nationals after that.

Behind him is Michael King, the young guy they got from the Yankees in the Soto trade, who has a 9-6 record. Joe Musgrove, a playoff pitching star for the Padres against the Mets a couple of years ago, is on his way back from a sore elbow, and scheduled for rehab starts. Matt Waldron is only 6-9, but he has a 3.89 ERA.

The unknown in the rotation, for now, remains Yu Darvish, on the restricted list dealing with what has been reported to be a family matter. In the meantime, they also picked up Martín Pérez from the Pirates at the Deadline just to give Shildt more rotation depth.

The Dodgers aren’t going anywhere, because they never do. They are still hopeful that they will get Yoshinobu Yamamoto back for their stretch run, with the righty having been shut down in June with a rotator cuff strain. They picked up Jack Flaherty and Michael Kopech at the Deadline, and expect Mookie Betts back soon from his broken left hand.

They’re still at the top of the West where they always are and the Padres are still behind them. But they’re 9-2 since the break, 7-3 against the Dodgers this season.

It doesn’t mean things will end up differently this time in the West. The Padres finally think they might. It didn’t look like they had much of a shot in June. Now they do. All they can ask for at their baseball end of I-405, where a real season has broken out.