Taking a gander at possible postseason rotation

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San Diego will have to wait to formally punch its ticket to the postseason. But for all intents and purposes ... the Padres are going to the playoffs.

And they will do so with perhaps the freshest group of starting pitchers in baseball. With Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish back to full strength, San Diego's rotation is sizzling. Padres starters have combined to post a 1.23 ERA over the past two weeks.

"Pun intended: It starts with the starters,” said manager Mike Shildt. “And the whole group's been tremendous."

With one more victory, San Diego will secure its place in the postseason. No, we don't know the opponent -- or even whether the Padres will catch the Dodgers and secure a first-round bye. But let's get a little ahead of ourselves, because it’s a question worth asking: What might San Diego’s postseason rotation look like?

What's the current status?

In 2022, the Padres learned the hard way the value of rotation depth in October. Without it, you can win a Wild Card Series. You can even win a Division Series, if your front-line guys lock it down. But when the series get longer, it's awfully tough to keep a playoff-caliber offense at bay.

The good news this year? All five of the Padres' starting pitchers have posted an ERA of 3.21 or lower since Martín Pérez's Trade Deadline arrival. Michael King, Dylan Cease and Musgrove -- the trio lined up to pitch in L.A. this week -- are particularly hot right now.

Who will be left out?

"You look at where we're at, there's going to be somebody that gets pushed out of this rotation to the bullpen," Musgrove said. "Who that is, we're not really sure yet. But it gives us another option to have a little bit more depth. This is the problem you want to have -- having one too many arms over one too few."

The answer is probably simpler than Musgrove wants to admit. The Padres didn't acquire Pérez to have him making crucial starts in October. They acquired him to help get them there -- and Pérez has done his part, posting a 2.61 ERA since arriving in San Diego.

He’s almost certainly headed to the ‘pen. Nonetheless, Pérez is a veteran who you can trust in the event a spot start is needed. Plus, he'd be able to cover innings in relief -- particularly useful with the absence of an automatic runner in extra innings and potentially longer games.

Who would start a Wild Card Series?

Here's where things get tricky. When the Padres acquired King, they probably crafted some contingency plans about his season. King was a starter for the first time. If he began to tire down the stretch, they could temporarily move him back to the bullpen, where he's proven he can dominate.

Instead, it’s late September, and King is pitching the best he's pitched all season. If Cease-Musgrove-Darvish was once the Padres' preferred choice of starters, King's remarkable season has shaken that plan.

There's a possibility those three starters in L.A. this week -- with King at the front -- are the three the Padres would line up in a Wild Card Series. Then again ...

How does the schedule fall?

The Padres would prefer not to line up for a Wild Card Series at all. With three games at Dodger Stadium beginning Tuesday night, San Diego can take control of the NL West race with a sweep.

In the end, the playoff rotation might set itself.

King is slated to pitch Tuesday. Then, he'd be in line to pitch the final game of the regular season on Sunday. If the Padres need that game for a division title, they'll give King the ball. If not, maybe they plan for a bullpen day.

And if, ultimately, the Padres must decide between one dominant starting pitcher or another in a postseason series -- well, that's quite a problem to have.