Padres' NL West chase to heat up this week

This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell’s Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

SAN DIEGO -- I’m not ready to say the NL West race is on just yet.

But get back to me later this week.

The Padres (85-65) welcome the AL West-leading Astros for a three-game series at Petco Park beginning Monday night. Meanwhile, the Dodgers (88-61) will play three games against the last-place Marlins starting on Tuesday (after finishing a series in Atlanta on Monday).

If the Padres are still within striking distance heading into this weekend, their first division title in 18 years will be truly within reach.

“We definitely want it, and we’re definitely going to put in the work for it,” Fernando Tatis Jr. said after the Padres’ weekend sweep in San Francisco. “We’ve just got to keep winning."

The Dodgers’ lead stands at 3 1/2 games. I’m setting Thursday as the date by which we’ll know whether this is truly a race. San Diego needs to keep pace until then.

After the Astros series, the Padres will complete their 2024 home slate with three against the White Sox -- who are on the verge of setting an MLB record for the most losses in a season. And then it’s three against the Dodgers in L.A. (No better way to gain ground on a rival than by playing them directly.)

Realistically, the Padres need to win the series in Los Angeles next week. They might need to sweep it. But they have already clinched the tiebreaker over the Dodgers, who are currently dealing with a number of injuries. The latest of those has sidelined ace Tyler Glasnow for the season.

“We’re chasing right down their backs right now,” said right-hander Joe Musgrove. “Physically, I know they’re not where they want to be. … It’s just how baseball goes at times, you lose key players. We’re playing really good baseball right now. Our confidence is high, the approach is right on both sides of the baseball.

“So, I think we’re in a really good spot to make a push at this thing, but I don’t think it changes a whole lot of how we play. I think we still go out there with the intention to win every game and do what the game’s telling us we need to do, and just see where things fall."

The Padres’ top priority remains clinching a postseason spot. On that front, they hold the top NL Wild Card spot, sitting 1 1/2 games ahead of the D-backs (83-66) and 3 1/2 games clear -- the same as the gap to the top of the West -- of the Mets (81-68) and Braves (81-68), who are tied for the final NL Wild Card spot.

There’s also value in jumping the NL Central-leading Brewers if San Diego is to make a push for the NL West title. The top two division winners get a bye for the NL Wild Card Series.

Still, the Padres never lost sight of the division race, even when they trailed the Dodgers by a season-high 10 games on June 18.

“Yeah, it’s there, obviously,” Manny Machado said. “But I think the biggest key to our team has been we’ve been just focused on today. … If we just keep the task in front of us and not think too far ahead, it makes it easier to get to that point."