4 options for Padres at the Deadline

This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell’s Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

The Trade Deadline is fast approaching, along with it a harsh reality for the underperforming Padres.

They aren't where they thought they might be around the trade season. The Padres sit in fourth place in the National League West, eight games out of a playoff spot.

That leaves them with some hard decisions over the next month.

"We never expected to be where we were record-wise at this point," manager Bob Melvin said last week. "But it is what it is, and it basically tells you who you are."

The Padres have four weeks to change "who they are" before the Deadline. If they fancy themselves as contenders -- and if they'd like to approach the Deadline as buyers -- they’ll need to reel off a prolonged stretch of quality play.

“The next month will tell us a lot,” general manager A.J. Preller said Friday, speaking on 97.3 The Fan’s morning show, Ben and Woods. “From our standpoint, the intention is to continue to look at this team playing into October and continuing to look at ways to improve the roster and get this team in a spot where we win a lot of games here in the second half.

“We'll see how things play out. Throughout the next month, if things change, then we'll pivot from that standpoint. But right now, the feeling with our group is: We're capable."

Publicly, that’s probably the right way to frame it, Preller expressing confidence in the team he’s assembled. But when the Deadline arrives, the way I see it, the Padres have four different paths they can chart this year:

1. Sell small

This is perhaps the likeliest middle ground. Which is to say, if the Padres remain far from contention at the Deadline, it feels like the path they're likeliest to choose.

There’s still a belief that the Padres have the foundations for a team that can contend. They're coming off a trip to the National League Championship Series, and their roster remains mostly intact from that run.

As such, they probably don’t see fit to blow it up entirely. But they also might be staring down some agonizingly low playoff odds -- at which point it’s time to explore the possibility of trading a few expiring deals. Seth Lugo has pitched well this season and perhaps the Padres could get big league-ready pieces in return.

The bigger question marks are Blake Snell and Josh Hader, core pieces in the final years of their respective contracts. They both are integral to the Padres’ success and feel like they’d fit the team’s long-term plans if they were to re-sign. Then again, both would fetch a haul at the Deadline, too.

2. Sell big

If the Padres’ freefall continues and the prospect of a playoff push were to vanish, it might be time to consider trading those expiring contracts to recoup as much talent as possible. Or would they go even bigger than that?

Yes, I'm talking about Juan Soto.

Last I heard, the Padres had absolutely no intention of moving Soto and view him as a core piece of the future. He's not a free agent until after the 2024 season, and -- however the '23 season ends -- the Padres plan to enter next year as contenders. Soto is the type of player who helps make that a reality.

But if, indeed, the Padres are out of the mix at the Trade Deadline, they'll at least have to ask the question. Soto might be bound for free agency after 2024. The Padres relinquished a king's ransom to acquire him last summer. Should they try to win back some of that value?

There is, of course, a separate question worth asking -- one that makes this the least likely of the four scenarios: If the Padres were to part with All-Stars and perhaps a future Hall of Famer ... then what? Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts and Joe Musgrove are in San Diego on long-term deals, still in their primes but also over 30. The Padres were built to win now. If not in 2023, shouldn't '24 be the all-in goal?

3. Stand pat

When the Padres underperformed in May, they confidently said things would change because their roster was simply too talented.

In June, when the Padres underperformed, they continued saying it. Albeit, a bit less confidently.

Now, in July, the refrain is tired, but that doesn't mean there isn't some truth to it. The Padres are losing close games in every way imaginable. Their run differential indicates they should be much better than their 38-46 record. And yet, here they sit.

Perhaps, given enough time, this group of players might put everything together and sneak into the postseason. I talked to one evaluator recently (before the recent spiral) who put it thusly: “If they could just get in, no one wants to face them.” That may be true, but right now, the “getting in” part looks daunting.

4. Buy, minimally

Barring a shift in the standings, it feels imprudent for the Padres to view themselves as buyers. But there remains time for that shift to take place.

The Padres, open the second half with four games in Philadelphia -- a team they're almost certainly going to have to overtake in the Wild Card race. Win, say, three of four, and perhaps it sparks something bigger.

One note about the idea of the Padres as buyers: Their roster is actually fairly complete. Meaning, unlike last summer, there isn't much room for major additions. They could add a righty-hitting corner-outfield bat for a platoon with Trent Grisham (pushing Fernando Tatis Jr. to center on occasion). They could add pitching depth, likely in the bullpen but also potentially at the back end of the rotation. In either case, they probably wouldn't need to part with significant prospect capital -- especially if they were acquiring rental pieces.

Still, for the Padres to entertain the notion of trading future assets, they'll need to put themselves in a significantly better position in the standings. With the Trade Deadline just over four weeks away, they’re running out of time to do so.