The Padres are MLB’s hottest team. Here are 5 reasons why
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This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell's Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
The Padres are hot.
The hottest team in baseball, in fact. Since the All-Star break, San Diego has gone 13-3, the best record in the Majors over that span.
Of course, plenty of teams get hot at various stages of the season. Allow me to convince you that this is sustainable -- that the Padres you’re watching right now are the real San Diego Padres.
Here are five reasons to believe:
1. This bullpen shortens the heck out of games
This is important for two reasons -- one for the regular season and one beyond that.
In the regular season, the Padres no longer need to ride Robert Suarez, Adrian Morejon and Jeremiah Estrada so hard. Tanner Scott and Jason Adam are on board -- which means when the high-leverage relievers need rest, they'll get rest.
Then for the big games, the Padres have a host of excellent relievers at their disposal. If their starter can get them through five with a lead, it might be lights out. Otherwise, the Padres have the 'pen depth to hold that deficit in check, while their offense pulls it back. It's a tried and true October formula.
2. The pieces fit on offense
I'll start with this: How good was that Donovan Solano signing?
Seriously, Solano was available to every club through Spring Training and into April. The Padres picked him up for peanuts -- a Minor League deal with an opt-out. He's done nothing but rake since he joined the big league club.
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Now that Xander Bogaerts is back (and raking, too), Solano is essentially a platoon/bench piece. The best part? Solano is fine with that role. He loves it, actually. Despite hitting .314 with a .789 OPS, he’s more than happy to come off the bench, and he has years of experience thriving in doing so.
Solano is only one example. The Padres’ catching tandem has been a success. Their outfield mix is solid. Their lineup has excellent left/right balance. Even Tyler Wade has proven a wholly useful 26th man. Which brings us to ...
3. They might be built for October
The postseason has been deemed a "crapshoot" by some, but that's not really fair. Sure, there's a measure of "getting hot at the right time" to October baseball. But successful teams tend to have a few things in common.
A deep bullpen? (Check.) A deep lineup with different options to beat different pitchers? (Check.) An ace atop the rotation and several options to fill out a playoff rotation behind him? (Check.)
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Dylan Cease sits atop that rotation, which has currently been pegged as the Padres' biggest weakness. But that's mostly because of questions about the depth. And on that front ...
4. They could still get better
Joe Musgrove is expected to return -- potentially on Monday -- from the right elbow issue that has sidelined him since May. That gives the Padres a six-deep starting rotation, with four playoff-caliber arms in Cease, Musgrove, Michael King and Matt Waldron.
That's not accounting for Yu Darvish, who remains on the restricted list while tending to a personal matter. It's impossible to speculate on Darvish's status at this point. But at the very least, he's another possibility for a rotation that suddenly seems somewhat stable.
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Meanwhile, this offense -- this red-hot, wear-you-down, grind-it-out offense -- gets to add Fernando Tatis Jr. at some point down the stretch. Look out.
5. The vibes -- they're high
Part of me wanted to put this first. Because talent-wise, I'm not sure there's too much difference between this year's team and the 2023 edition. This year might be a more complete roster, but last year featured serious top-end talent that is no longer around.
In any case, the difference in vibes is night and day. These Padres love playing ball. And that's not to say the 2023 edition didn't. But they were seriously burdened by the weight of expectations. To the point where, in the clubhouse, winning didn't feel fun and losing felt downright miserable.
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It's different this year. Winning feels fun again, and losing feels like a temporary obstacle needed to be overcome before the next win. That mindset shift has made a serious difference. You'll just have to believe me, because this kind of stuff can't exactly be quantified. But I know nobody in 2023 was saying anything like what Jackson Merrill had to say Wednesday after his ninth-inning heroics:
“I come to the field every day, and it's literally a family in here,” Merrill said. “I try to get here as early as possible some days, just so I can hang out with these guys. That's the best part."