With clinch season upon us, here's what Padres are playing for

This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell’s Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

SAN DIEGO -- It's clinch season, and the Padres are getting close.

San Diego started the week by winning two of three games in a ridiculously high-quality -- and at times bizarre -- series against the AL West-leading Astros at Petco Park. In doing so, the Padres ensured that all of their regular-season goals remain within reach.

Here’s what San Diego is playing for over the next 10 days:

1. A postseason berth

The number is five. Don't think of it like a traditional magic number, which implies a number that gets lower every time another team loses. In the era of tiebreakers and multiple Wild Card spots, things are a bit more complicated.

Instead, think of it like this: The Padres must win five games to reach the threshold that will guarantee them a postseason spot. Right now, that threshold is 92-70. When San Diego wins, the number goes down. When that threshold is lowered, the number also goes down. That is mostly connected to the Braves' results, but there are a couple of other factors:

• The Padres own the head-to-head tiebreaker over Atlanta, but they could still finish below the Braves if the final standings required a three- or four-team tiebreaker.

• The Mets and the Braves play each other next week. That guarantees at least two losses for one of those teams. Those losses are already baked into the current number.

The important part is this: The Padres can secure their place in the postseason as soon as Sunday.

2. Home-field advantage

For an NL Wild Card Series, at the very least.

MLB’s Wild Card Series is the only postseason series in major North American professional sports that requires a lower seed to win multiple games on the road. (Love that -- let’s reward regular-season performance.) With the way Petco Park has been rocking all week, it feels like that could end up being very important.

The Padres (87-66) hold a 2 1/2-game edge over the Mets (84-68) and the Diamondbacks (84-68). The Mets own the tiebreaker over San Diego, while the tiebreaker between the Padres and the D-backs will be settled in next weekend’s series at Chase Field.

You can debate the merits of home-field advantage in the postseason. Ultimately, it probably matters more to you and me than it does to the players themselves (the Padres have a much better record on the road this year), but after a season like this one -- with seemingly nightly sellouts at Petco Park -- it feels like downtown San Diego deserves postseason baseball.

3. An NL West title

It seems pretty clear that this is the Padres’ top priority over simply getting in or securing home-field advantage.

“Obviously we’d rather have those [Wild Card] games be at home,” said right-hander Joe Musgrove. “But I think our sights are still set on challenging for the division and getting into a spot where those three games in L.A. can be dictating the division.”

The Padres play three games at Dodger Stadium starting on Tuesday. San Diego trails Los Angeles (90-62) by 3 1/2 games in the NL West standings. One Dodgers loss means the Padres control their own destiny in the division race.

The task remains a tall one. After the Dodgers complete their series against Miami, their two remaining series other than the set with the Padres will be against the last-place Rockies. A division title might require that the Padres sweep L.A.

Then again, the injury bug has recently hit the Dodgers hard, and the Padres could line up Michael King, Dylan Cease and Musgrove for those three games. In their last five combined starts, that trio has posted a 0.84 ERA.

4. A first-round bye

The prospect of their first division title in 18 years is a sweet one for the Padres. It'd be a whole lot sweeter if it came with a first-round bye.

To avoid the Wild Card Series entirely, the Padres would need to finish as one of the NL's top two division winners. That means chasing down either the Phillies (91-61) or the NL Central champion Brewers (88-64), along with the Dodgers.

Milwaukee is the likelier option. The club leads San Diego by 1 1/2 games, but the Padres own the season-series tiebreaker. The Phillies' lead on San Diego is 4 1/2 games, and Philadelphia owns that tiebreaker.

The six other NL contenders are playing on Thursday, while San Diego is off. That should bring some measure of clarity before the Padres’ three-game series against the White Sox this weekend.

“Obviously we’re paying attention,” said Fernando Tatis Jr. “But the biggest part, for us, is winning every single day.”