4 takeaways from the Padres' 2024 Deadline
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This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell’s Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
The Padres' Trade Deadline sure was eventful. Is it ever not?
San Diego landed two of the sport's top available relief arms in Tanner Scott and Jason Adam. Bryan Hoeing joined the big league bullpen, too, while lefty starter Martín Pérez joined the rotation. Triple-A outfielder Brandon Lockridge (the Padres' No. 29 prospect) is on board as well.
In return, the Padres shipped out nine prospects in those four deals, including six of their Top 12. It was a win-now Deadline. But again, would you expect anything less from general manager A.J. Preller?
With a couple days of hindsight, here are some takeaways from a very busy week:
1. This was Preller's philosophy in a nutshell
I'm not sure I've ever heard Preller summarize his freewheeling philosophy when it comes to dealing prospects better than he did in Tuesday's post-Deadline press conference.
"One thing we have never been scared of is: We’re going to trade players," Preller said. "We’re going to trade players that are going to show up in the big leagues. ... But if we get what we’re looking to do and it works for us both this year and over the next three to five years, we’re content with that."
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Make no mistake, that philosophy has burned Preller and the Padres in the past. It's why Trea Turner won a World Series with the Nationals. It's why Max Fried is a Brave, why Josh Naylor is a Guardian and why Andrés Muñoz is a Mariner. None of those deals are particularly pretty in hindsight.
Perhaps one day, the same will be said about Dylan Lesko and Robby Snelling. If I'm the Rays or the Marlins, I'm thrilled at the players I got back from San Diego.
But give Preller and the Padres credit for this much: When they've depleted their farm in the past, they've built it back up in short order. Preller went for broke at the 2020 and '22 Trade Deadlines. In the immediate aftermath, he was criticized for sacrificing his entire farm. Then, a couple years later, he had a quality enough farm to do it all again.
"We're going to trade talented players," Preller reiterated. "I think that's a compliment to our scouting group, honestly."
2. Salas and De Vries were off-limits
Maybe not entirely off-limits. Preller did acknowledge fielding calls involving Ethan Salas (the Padres' No. 1 prospect, No. 6 overall) and Leodalis De Vries (San Diego's No. 2 prospect, No. 78 overall). But clearly, it was a priority for the Padres to hang onto both.
"Obviously if there are players of impact, we want to be involved or at least check in and see where it stands, so we can make our decisions with full information," Preller said. "... You always listen. You always are willing to hear what other teams have to say. ... But ultimately, we're really happy that they're with us right now."
If you're reading between the lines: The Padres were linked with Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet, the top two aces available. They weren't going to land either without sacrificing Salas or De Vries (and probably more). They chose to pass.
Let's just say there were more than a few in the organization who were thrilled to see the Deadline come and go with Salas and De Vries still with the team. They're viewed as potential franchise cornerstones.
"We think very highly specifically of Leo De Vries and Ethan," Preller said. "We think those are guys that are going to play here a long time."
3. The rotation remains the biggest question mark
Even with Skubal and Crochet off the table, the Padres had options to add to their rotation.
"We explored, pretty heavy, the starter market as well," Preller said. "Ultimately, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Different teams have different asks."
With prices too high for the Padres' liking, they focused instead on building a lockdown bullpen, while adding on the margins in the rotation. Pérez becomes their fifth starter. Hoeing is a swingman.
But beyond Dylan Cease at the top, San Diego's rotation has serious concerns. Michael King and Matt Waldron have been mostly excellent, but they're past their career highs in innings. Joe Musgrove, who is approaching a return from a right elbow issue, has struggled amid injuries this season. There is still no clarity regarding Yu Darvish (restricted list).
“He’s let us know that when he feels like he’s in a spot from a personal situation that he can put his attention back on the team, he’ll go from there with it,” Preller said. “We’re just respecting that.”
4. The 2021 comparisons aren't totally fair
I'm guilty of making those comparisons, too. In my last newsletter, I framed the Padres' need for starting pitching around their inactivity on that front in 2021. They didn't acquire rotation help at that Deadline, then spiraled when a couple starters got hurt.
The floor just seems higher in 2024. Even if things go south for the presumed starting five -- Hoeing, Pérez, Randy Vásquez and Jhony Brito are miles better than the remains of Jake Arrieta and Vince Velasquez, who pitched pivotal games down the stretch in '21.
Two other reasons to be more confident:
• This bullpen is much better than the 2021 edition, so the starters won't be asked to do nearly as much.
• The Ruben Niebla effect. If anyone can get the most out of the options in-house, it's Niebla, the Padres’ revered pitching coach.