Here's what needs to go right for 2022 Padres

PEORIA, Ariz. -- The 2022 Padres really don't want to spend much energy thinking about 2021. And rightfully so. Come Thursday evening, it's a new season with renewed expectations and a highly regarded veteran manager at the helm.

"I'm never going to give an excuse of why it happened," Manny Machado said of the team’s precipitous late-season collapse in 2021. "Those are just things that you learn from. ... Every single year you go out there and try to be better than you were last year."

Better than last year -- the Padres sure think they are. A year ago, San Diego won 79 games, fading from playoff contention over the season's final two months. It was a brutal finish that necessitated a shakeup, and a shakeup ensued.

• How the Opening Day roster is shaping up

The Padres brought Bob Melvin into the manager's chair and revamped the rest of their coaching staff around him. The starting rotation is healthy again. Even with star shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. out for the season's first three months, there are reasons to be optimistic about the offense.

What needs to go right
Here we are, in early April, talking about the overwhelming depth of the Padres' rotation. We did it last year, too. Then a spate of injuries laid waste to that depth.

So, what needs to go right for the Padres to reach their potential in 2022? They need some positive luck in their rotation for a change. Because, on paper, this is an immensely talented group of starting pitchers -- bolstered even further by the acquisition of Sean Manaea near the end of camp. And nearly every starting pitcher comes with an injury caveat.

Nonetheless, it's OK to dream of what the Padres' rotation might be if Yu Darvish has resolved his hip trouble. If Mike Clevinger bounces back after missing 2021 due to Tommy John surgery. If Blake Snell can pitch 150 innings for the first time since his 2018 Cy Young campaign. If Adrian Morejon returns midseason and gives the rotation a boost after recovering from Tommy John surgery.

That is a sizeable number of "ifs." But the upside for a healthy Padres starting rotation is immense.

"You saw the trouble it caused us last year, running out of pitching," right-hander Joe Musgrove said. "You never can have too much pitching. Never. To have as many good options as we have right now ... it's all really exciting."

Great unknown
Remember MacKenzie Gore, the utterly dominant prospect who was once on track to become one of the best young pitchers in baseball? Dare we say it: He might be back.

Gore endured two brutal seasons in 2020 and '21, as he struggled with command and his mechanics were thrown out of whack. But after working extensively with new pitching coach Ruben Niebla, Gore looks like a different pitcher this spring. He’s found the strike zone with all four of his pitches, to great effect. After plummeting in most prospect rankings, it’s entirely possible that Gore, who is only 23 years old, lives up to his billing after all.

"It's about how you work through it," Melvin said. "That's what we've noticed, more than anything. He's back to, it seems like, that guy in '19 that had such a great year. His trajectory slowed down. ... But he seems to be on the right path again. It's high-end stuff, top-of-the-rotation stuff, if he continues to develop and pitch the way he is right now.”

Padres MVP will be ...
Machado. Over the past three seasons, Tatis has been the Padres' on-field spark, a charismatic firebrand on and off the field. Machado, meanwhile, has served as the steadying presence.

In Tatis' absence, all eyes now turn to Machado to anchor the team's offense. Machado, in turn, has just the personality -- even-keeled with a tireless work ethic -- to shoulder that burden.

"You don't win a championship in the first three months of the season," Machado said. "But you could put yourself in a really good position. ... When [Tatis] does put on that uniform, we’re going to be in a good situation, in a good place to help him get back on his feet, so he can take us where we need to get to."

Padres Cy Young will be ...
Darvish. The battle for Opening Day starter was mostly a tossup for the Padres this spring, with Darvish edging out Musgrove. Musgrove posted better numbers in 2021. But it's worth remembering just how electric Darvish was prior to a midseason hip injury.

Through June, Darvish owned a 2.44 ERA and was named to the National League All-Star team. But his right hip began acting up in a game against Philadelphia last July, and he posted a 6.54 ERA from that game onward. As he compensated for his ailing hip, it led to trouble with his lower back and groin, and Darvish needed two stints on the injured list in the second half of the year.

Darvish feels that issue is resolved. He has tweaked his lower-half mechanics to lessen the strain on his right hip, and the early returns are positive. This spring, he posted a 2.38 ERA, striking out 14 over 11 1/3 innings.

Bold prediction ...
The Padres will win a postseason series (or more). After the way things spiraled in 2021, it's fair to wonder who, exactly, these Padres are. Are they the World Series favorites they appeared to be last June? Or are they the team that posted the worst record in baseball from mid-August onward?

Perhaps optimistically, I'll say this year's group is closer to the former.

In a brutal NL West, featuring a 107-win reigning division champ in San Francisco AND the juggernaut that is the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Padres have work to do. But even if they don't win the West, there's an extra playoff spot this year. The Padres will get Tatis back eventually, and their pitching seems better suited to sustain a season's worth of attrition.

“You look at some of the reinforcements we might have,” Melvin said. "I think we're going to get better as the season goes along, I really do. Everybody looks to get off to a good start. But I think we have a lot of the weapons to get better as the season goes along. That's what you hope for."

If so, it'd represent a stark turnaround from 2021. And a welcome one, too.