New-look Padres aim for new outcome in 2020

PEORIA, Ariz. -- Maybe it's the brown. Maybe it's the new manager. Maybe it's the plethora of new faces in the clubhouse and coaches room.

But Padres camp sure looks different this spring.

After a disheartening 70-92 finish in 2019, San Diego embarked on an offseason overhaul in more ways than one. Jayce Tingler has arrived as skipper, bringing a new bench coach and a new pitching coach along with him. Tommy Pham and Trent Grisham should add a new dynamic to the offense, too.

"It's definitely a change, from the uniforms to the coaching staff, and I think everybody is excited," first baseman Eric Hosmer said earlier this spring. "It's a brand new season. Everyone has a clean slate. Everyone's ready to go."

The Padres set a franchise record two winters ago when they signed Hosmer to a $144 million deal. They shattered that mark the following offseason by landing Manny Machado for $300 million. Thus far, those signings have yet to change any on-field results. But there's palpable optimism that the shift toward contention will begin in 2020.

Machado, Hosmer and a handful of other veterans are joined by a young core in San Diego that is mostly under team control for the foreseeable future. But the Padres, to their credit, aren't making any bold proclamations about what they might accomplish in 2020.

"We don't want to be a group that's talking," Tingler said. "We want to be an active group. We want to be a group that works."

Still, it's clear the Padres are eager to put 2019 -- and an entire decade without a playoff berth -- in the past. They’ve already changed colors from blue to their more traditional brown. But that isn’t the only on-field change they’d like to see this season.

What's the goal?

October baseball. Obviously, the Padres would need to make a massive jump in the wins column after their last-place finish in 2019. But some new pieces are in place to help them do so.

Pham and Grisham arrive to bolster the outfield. Emilio Pagán and Drew Pomeranz make an already strong bullpen even better. Plus: Fernando Tatis Jr. and Chris Paddack are expected to make strides in year two.

It remains very unlikely that the Padres would challenge for a division title this season, given the lofty projections for the rival Dodgers. But both National League Wild Card spots are up for grabs.

The Padres certainly aren't a playoff favorite. But if a few things break right, they might find themselves in the mix. At the very least, they’re a young team with a bright future -- and they'd clearly benefit from an 80-something win season and a playoff race deep into September.

How do they get there?

As the Padres floundered during the second half last year, their hitters reverted to many of the same issues that had plagued them in prior seasons. For the first time in six years, the San Diego offense did not finish last in the Majors in on-base percentage. But it still slumped to 26th.

The arrivals of Pham and Grisham should help change things. A full season with a healthy Tatis -- who slashed .317/.379/.590 in 84 games as a rookie -- would go a long way as well. Wil Myers is off to a torrid start this spring, and some feel he's due to bounce back.

No doubt, there are question marks up and down the Padres' lineup. The range of possible outcomes for nearly every hitter features extreme variance -- whether due to injuries, inconsistency or youth. Still, if the Padres were to get, say, 60th percentile production from those hitters, this could be their best collection of bats in a decade.

What could go wrong?

Since signing their record-setting contracts, Machado and Hosmer have yet to live up to the billing. If they help right the ship in 2020, those early struggles will be quickly forgotten. But first, they both desperately need bounce-back seasons.

Hosmer in particular has struggled since his arrival in San Diego. If he continues to flounder against left-handed pitching, the Padres might find themselves paying $21 million for a platoon first baseman in 2020.

Pham and Tatis are two of the most stable pieces in the lineup. But both dealt with injuries that lingered into the offseason. They'll each enter 2020 with ongoing questions about their durability.

Sure, it's hard to fathom a season in which the Padres don't improve on their 70-92 finish. They added pieces and prospects to address a number of their deficiencies this winter. But there are still enough question marks that a 10th straight sub-.500 campaign is a very realistic possibility.

Who might surprise?

The Padres did very little to address their starting rotation during the offseason. Instead, they chose to reinforce an already excellent bullpen. That was by design. GM A.J. Preller didn't love the rotation options on the open market and instead preferred to keep opportunity available for his young arms.

That decision puts plenty of burden on right-handers Dinelson Lamet and Garrett Richards in their first full seasons back from Tommy John surgery. The Padres believe that duo will join Paddack to form a formidable front three. They're particularly high on Lamet, whose peripheral numbers offer promise for a breakout.

Eventually, Paddack, Lamet and Richards might be joined by top pitching prospects MacKenzie Gore and Luis Patiño. With a deep and versatile bullpen, the Padres think they'll be able to limit the burden on those young starters, potentially setting their rotation up for long-term success.