Breaking down Padres' 2019 rotation options

SAN DIEGO -- The Padres' starting rotation will be in flux this offseason.
No one on the current roster is guaranteed a rotation place entering the 2019 season -- though some certainly have an upper hand. A handful of young starters will be given the chance to work their way into the rotation of the future.
Of course, there are still five weeks left in the 2018 season, and that leaves plenty of time for pitchers who are currently on the staff to make their final statements.
With that in mind, here's an early look at San Diego's 2019 rotation options.
Locks: None
This is the best indication that the Padres aren't going to stay quiet during the offseason. Yes, they're loaded with pitching talent on the farm. But a chunk of that talent remains at the lower levels of the Minor Leagues. The group of young starters at the big league level is unproven.
It's no coincidence that the Friars were linked with Chris Archer -- and, to a lesser extent, Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard -- at the non-waiver Trade Deadline. Even if their young pitching pans out, there's still no front-line arm to lead the way. Whether San Diego looks to add an ace or a stopgap starter, that remains to be seen. But the Padres are almost certainly going to add.
Favorites: Joey Lucchesi, Eric Lauer
Lucchesi and Lauer reached the Majors in April as the first two pitchers to arrive from the entire 2016 Draft class. They were well ahead of schedule, and for the most part, they've made a favorable impression.

Lucchesi (20 starts, 3.74 ERA, 9.6 K/9) has done more than Lauer (18 starts, 5.30 ERA, 7.8 K/9) to cement his 2019 spot. But Lauer, 23, is two years younger and got off to a much slower start. He could return this week from a forearm strain that forced him to the DL, and a strong finish would go a long way toward securing his '19 place.
'Pen or rotation: Matt Strahm, Clayton Richard, Robbie Erlin
The Padres haven't decided on a plan for Strahm, who has been excellent this season, posting a 2.22 ERA while working almost exclusively out of the bullpen. The club didn't want to extend his workload in his first year back from knee surgery, but it's possible Strahm could report to camp next spring as a starter. If that experiment doesn't work, there's still a place for the left-hander to work high-leverage innings in relief.

Erlin and Richard, meanwhile, are part of the current rotation. Neither has done nearly enough to lock up a spot next year. Erlin owns a 6.34 ERA in seven starts (though he's been very serviceable in long relief). Richard, meanwhile, has a 5.33 mark, including 8.57 in the second half. When he signed his two-year extension, San Diego promised him a rotation spot to start the 2018 campaign, but noted he'd have to earn everything after that. It's hard to say he's earned his rotation place since July.
Something to prove: Brett Kennedy, Jacob Nix, Luis Perdomo, Bryan Mitchell
The Padres think highly of Nix, their No. 14 prospect, but he's still just 22, and his first-month results have been mixed. Meanwhile, Kennedy's early results have been poor. The 24-year-old right-hander won't be written off after four bad starts. But he hasn't done enough to put himself among the best five names entering next season.

In short: San Diego isn't yet sure what it has in Kennedy and Nix. Mitchell and Perdomo, on the other hand, have longer track records -- and those track records aren't particularly pretty. Both are recovering from injuries and expected back early in September. That's not enough time for either to win a starting job next year. However, it's at least enough time for both to change their trajectories. As things stand, it's hard to see a spot on the roster for either, even in the bullpen.
On the mend: Dinelson Lamet, Colin Rea
Lamet is coming off Tommy John surgery and won't be healthy by the beginning of next season. Whenever he's at full strength, Lamet is a lock to pitch in the rotation, but the Padres won't rush him back.
Speaking of Tommy John surgery, Rea has struggled immensely this season in his return. He's also battled a shoulder ailment, and his ERA sits at 6.20 between Double- and Triple-A. Perhaps a normal offseason can help Rea can regain his big league quality. But he's clearly on the outside looking in right now.
Long shots: Logan Allen, Cal Quantrill, Walker Lockett
Lockett hasn't been able to take advantage of his big league opportunity this year, and he finds himself in Triple-A with Allen and Quantrill, both of who are Top 10 prospects in the organization. All three are candidates to be called up in September. But 40-man roster space is tight for the Padres right now, and neither Allen nor Quantrill needs to be added to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft this winter. They might be simply be shut down after the Triple-A playoffs.
Allen has been excellent all year, and Quantrill has been sharp since his promotion to El Paso. They'll get their chances at some point. But they'd have to show a lot in Spring Training to crack the season-opening staff. The same holds true for No. 5 prospect Chris Paddack, who won't make the rotation out of camp, but he could make an impact at some point.