Out of the Park Baseball simulates the '23 World Series winner
The Out of the Park Baseball strategy game franchise is known for many things – engaging would-be MLB General Managers all over the world, powering real MLB club research and tactics, and an incredible run of accurate World Series predictions. The 24th version of the popular MLB-licensed title, which releases globally today on PC and Mac, is poised to continue the title’s proud history and delight baseball strategy fans anew.
To celebrate its release today, the team at Out of the Park Baseball ran 1,000 simulations of the 2023 MLB season to get a feel for what fans can expect this year. This process has yielded impressive results many times in the past, although it is by no means represented as a “guarantee” of what will happen. After all, baseball is a game of inches – and sometimes one inch in either direction is enough to change the trajectory of a player and a team.
“The beauty of baseball is in its intricacy,” says Markus Heinsohn, the founder and to this day lead developer of the Out of the Park Baseball franchise. “Running 1,000 simulations with our software is a great way to determine what would most likely happen most of the time based on what is known as well as what can be modeled. However, Major League Baseball action takes place on the diamond, and that’s where all the infinite possibilities play out in real time. We love comparing our simulations to the results at the end of every season, because it’s fascinating to see what we got ‘right’ vs. what we ‘missed.’ Then, we keep tweaking everything to increase the odds of accuracy moving forward.
“That’s what keeps our fans coming back every year,” Markus continues. “It’s not just the ‘big new features,’ the new trades and free agents, or the impact of the rules changes – although those are a big deal – but it’s also the small things that play out over the course of multiple 162-game seasons. Our fans love nuance and authenticity, and we do everything we can every year to delight them.”
Running The Numbers
What does Out of the Park Baseball 24 predict will unfold this season? The development team ran 1,000 simulations based on the most current rosters and injury information on March 20. Certain players known to be out for the year – such as Edwin Díaz and Gavin Lux – were not included, and other players known to be missing significant time – like Bryce Harper and Jose Altuve – were modeled for partial seasons.
NL East
NL Central
NL West
The National League has clear favorites for 2023 – at least according to Out of the Park Baseball 24! The Dodgers, Braves, Padres, and Cardinals are virtual locks for a playoff appearance (due in no small part to the expansion of the Postseason format that began last year). The biggest battle in the NL would seem to be between the Mets, D-backs (both projected to be a Wild Card), Phillies, and Giants (both projected to fall just short of the Postseason). Clearly, OOTP 24 sees a significant gap between the top teams and the bottom teams in the NL, including six teams that didn’t win the World Series in any of the simulations.
In the American League, things are quite different!
AL EAST
AL CENTRAL
AL WEST
The American League is wide open in 2023! With 10 teams finishing within 9 games of each other, there certainly seems to be a recipe for a thrilling pennant chase. The strongest club is the Houston Astros – the only one that averaged over 90 wins a season over 1,000 simulations. After that, it’s a free-for-all between the Rays, Yankees, Blue Jays, Twins, Guardians, Mariners, and Angels – with the Rangers and Orioles appearing to have an opportunity to make some noise as well. Unlike the NL, there are just three clubs that didn’t win a World Series championship in any of the simulations – the A’s, Royals, and Tigers.
National League – Postseason
The top two division winners are projected to be the Dodgers and Braves, which means the third division winner Cardinals will battle the Diamondbacks while the Padres have a Wild Card round rematch with the Mets.
In their 103 matchups, the Cardinals dominated the D-backs, picking up a series victory 63% of the time, while the Padres similarly took care of the Mets 62% of the time in their 191 matchups.
The NLDS results were much closer – in fact, the Dodgers barely edged the Padres just 52% of the time in their 319 battles. The Braves were a bit more convincing over the Cards, winning their NLDS at a 57% clip in their 240 matchups.
Statistically speaking, the Dodgers are a material favorite to emerge as the NL Pennant winners. They were the top overall World Series winner in the senior circuit (18.2% of the sims had them as World Series champions) and they also beat the Braves just over 54% of the time in their 177 battles in the NLCS.
American League – Postseason
As noted earlier, the AL has much closer races from top to bottom, which also means the numbers of specific matchups between playoff teams is lower than in the NL. The top two division winners are projected to be the Astros and Rays, setting up the third division winner Twins to take on the Mariners while the Guardians battle their longtime nemesis the Yankees.
The story of the American League is parity and extremely close races – and the Wild Card Series bears that out. Both the Twins and Guardians edge out Wild Card Series wins 56% of the time in their battles.
The ALDS results are a tale of two series. The Astros defeat the Guardians at a 59% clip in their 98 matchups. However, in their 112 battles, the Twins and Rays tied in the number of series wins. Talk about close! It comes down to a tiebreaker – and with the Twins winning the overall number of games played 233 to 231, that gives them the incredibly small edge.
It took a razor’s edge tiebreaker to advance the Twins to the ALCS, but they can’t quite break through enough against the defending World Series champion Astros. Houston takes the AL Pennant 54% of the time in the 81 matchups they had against the Twins in the 1,000 simulations.
It’s a Dodgers-Astros World Series – a rematch of the bitterly contested 2017 Fall Classic!
2023 World Series
Two of the best teams in baseball – the dominant Los Angeles Dodgers versus the defending champion Houston Astros - occurred at the highest rate of any others. Of course, considering the closeness of all the AL races, it’s still a relatively low number of 62 World Series matchups in the 1,000 simulations.
The Los Angeles Dodgers will bring the World Series trophy back to the City of Angels! The Dodgers win the matchup at an almost 60% clip, sending the Astros back to Houston with an AL Pennant but not a back-to-back world championship.
Individual Performances – Hitting
With a new, balanced schedule offering a unique schedule and matchups, it will be very interesting to see how individual performances are impacted. Here are the top 10 performances by individual batters over the course of 1,000 simulations.
In the AL, Aaron Judge looks poised to deliver another MVP-caliber year, leading the league again in home runs. Yordan Alvarez will be challenging him for the MVP, with Mike Trout and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in close pursuit as well. The NL MVP race looks to be a battle between Juan Soto of the Padres and Freddie Freeman of the Dodgers, with Kris Bryant and Ronald Acuña Jr. making noise too.
Had they been modeled to play a full season, Bryce Harper and Fernando Tatis Jr. would have easily cracked the top 10 offensive players, but due to injury they did not have enough at-bats to qualify.
Individual Performances – Starting Pitching
Meanwhile, several new faces in new places will shine in 2023, including Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander. Here are the top 10 performances by individual starting pitchers over the course of 1,000 simulations.
Individual Performances – Relief Pitching
Of course, bullpens are more important than ever. Not only will closers be critical, but setup men will drive significant value in 2023. Here are the top 10 performances by individual relief pitchers over the course of 1,000 simulations.
2023 will be an exciting year for Major League Baseball! You can pick any team you’d like and take over the front office to see how well you match up against the rest of the baseball world. Check out the brand new Out of the Park Baseball 24 today!