BAL vs. TOR, Oct. 2: Odds, Prediction
A version of this article originally appeared on the Action Network. For more betting insights, check out ActionNetwork.com.
Yankees Odds: +220
Blue Jays Odds: -275
Over/Under: 8.5 (-105/-115)
Time: 3:07 p.m. ET
TV: MLB.TV
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.
The Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, and Mariners are all involved in one of the most heated Wild Card races in recent history. Yet, somehow the Orioles are the most important team.
The Orioles played spoiler for Boston, taking two out of three from the Red Sox. Then, Baltimore almost did the same for Toronto, mounting a late-game comeback from down 6-0 but ultimately losing, 6-4.
The Jays escaped, but will they be able to do it again? Or should we buy the O’s in this matchup?
Let’s dig in and find out.
Baltimore Orioles
The story of the 2021 Orioles is mostly about their 19-game losing streak in mid-August. That streak propelled them into the race for baseball’s worst record, as their 52-108 record is only bested by Arizona.
Otherwise, the Orioles have been competent at times. Cedric Mullins is a breakout star, Trey Mancini will likely win Comeback Player of the Year, and today’s starter John Means is a top-of-the-rotation pitcher,
Means has looked more than great at times, although he’s largely overperformed this year. He pairs his 3.22 ERA with a 4.33 xFIP and a wildly low .237 BABIP.
He’s a great control pitcher, however, walking less than 5% of batters faced (1.63 BB/9). He throws a three-pitch mix headlined by a 92 mph four-seam and complemented by a changeup and curveball. While he only throws the curve about 15% of the time, it’s been his most effective pitch, holding opponents to just a .161 wOBA.
Toronto Blue Jays
It’s baffling to think the Blue Jays may not make the playoffs.
Toronto’s +166 run differential is better than the White Sox. The Blue Jays have posted the best wRC+ in September (129) while leading the league in average exit velocity this season (90.3 mph). The AL Cy Young favorite headlines their rotation and a top AL MVP candidate headlines their lineup.
Yet, they find themselves one game back of the second Wild Card spot, tied with the Mariners and their -49 run differential.
But if it doesn’t work out this season, this team is set up excellently for the future. There are young stars all over the roster, and the front office bolstered the rotation and bullpen at this year’s deadline.
One of those young stars includes today’s starter. Alek Manoah has been an amazing find for the Blue Jays this season, putting together one of the finest rookie seasons for a pitcher this year.
The West Virginia product has posted a 3.35 ERA and a 3.49 xERA while posting some of the best batted ball statistics in the league (86.8 mph average exit velocity, 30.4% hard-hit rate).
As such, the Blue Jays and their talented offense are 15-4 in games started by Manoah.
Orioles-Blue Jays Pick
It’s not going to be worth laying the juice with the Blue Jays, who are almost -300 on the ML.
However, it could be worth taking a shot with the Orioles. Our Action PRO projections make their ML closer to +190, so we have an edge at +215 or better.
While it seems like a long shot, the Orioles are frisky and have won four of their last 10 games. I’m going to take the value and shoot my shot with Baltimore at big plus-money odds.
Pick: Orioles ML (+220)