Can the Orioles beat the competition -- and the odds?

This story was excerpted from Zachary Silver's Orioles Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

Make no bones about it. Good luck even trying to mince words. This is crunch time for the Orioles, now in the midst of 20 consecutive games to close out the season without a day off. Only four more -- Sunday's series finale in Toronto and three games against the Blue Jays to close out the regular season -- are against a team they’re chasing in the Wild Card hunt, meaning destiny is less in their hands.

Baltimore entered Sunday 5 games back of the third and final Wild Card spot, a number unaided by their uneven play in September and some back-and-forth streakiness above them. Nevertheless, in this rebuild era, they have no bigger chance than right now.

“We’ve got what we want in front of us,” starter Jordan Lyles told reporters in Toronto this weekend. “ … The end of the season is here and each game means that much more.”

The Orioles will need to beat the odds to try and make their postseason dreams into October realities. Entering the weekend, they had a 1.9 percent chance of making the playoffs according to FanGraphs, a 6 percent chance according to FiveThirtyEight and an 11.5 percent chance according to Baseball-Reference.

But beating the odds is what this team has made its specialty this season, widely expected to be basement dwellers to now firmly in the mix.

“I feel like we’ve been playing these games for about two months,” manager Brandon Hyde told reporters in Toronto this weekend. “It kind of started that last series at Tampa. Didn’t it feel like must-win games in August? I don’t know why it felt that way, but it kind of did. I feel like we’ve been playing to try and hang in this thing for a while now.”

The stretch of play has required shifting across their preparations. With two off-days this past week, Austin Voth was given a game off from the rotation, instead making a one-inning appearance out of the bullpen. Across the lineup, Hyde has been prioritizing player rest and rotation with this stretch in mind.

At the beginning of the season, it was unconscionable to imagine this position they’re in. But now they have the chance to make the most of it.

The Orioles don’t only have to improve themselves, but beat their competition. Outside of a three-game set with the Tigers beginning Monday, they have no softies left. Immediately, they get Trey Mancini and the AL-leading Astros for four games, go on a road trip through Boston and New York, and then finish with that set at home against the Blue Jays -- with no days to catch their breath.

All the while, they still feel a postseason bid is at the other side of the tunnel.

“Until they say that we're unable to do so, regardless of if we win out,” center fielder Cedric Mullins said recently, “then yeah.”