What does the O's bullpen look like after Kimbrel's arrival?

This story was excerpted from Jake Rill’s Orioles Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

BALTIMORE -- The Orioles prefer to have structure in their bullpen, and that means having a set closer who pitches the ninth inning. On Wednesday, the team filled that role for 2024, when it signed veteran right-hander Craig Kimbrel to a one-year, $12 million deal (with a $13 million team option or $1 million buyout for ‘25) on the final day of the Winter Meetings in Nashville.

“The plan is for him to be the closer, and we were very clear about that when we signed him,” general manager Mike Elias said. “It doesn’t mean [manager] Brandon [Hyde] is not going to use him to face the middle of the order in a tie game in the eighth inning. You know how it goes. But he’ll be leading the pack there from the back end of the bullpen.”

The addition of Kimbrel allows Baltimore to better define roles for its returning relievers. And while the O’s could still add more high-leverage relief arms this offseason -- they’re leaving the possibility open -- Elias seems content with the club’s projected bullpen landscape as is.

Here’s an updated breakdown of the ‘pen picture for the Orioles heading into 2024 (all listed pitchers are on the 40-man roster):

Closer: Kimbrel
A 14-year big league veteran, Kimbrel will go down as one of baseball’s all-time-great closers. The 35-year-old ranks eighth in AL/NL history with 417 saves, and he could move ahead of Billy Wagner (422), John Franco (424) and Francisco Rodríguez (437) next season.

Kimbrel may not be as dominant as he once was, but he recorded a 1.04 WHIP and had a 33.8% strikeout rate (10th best among MLB relievers) while pitching for the Phillies in 2023. He has the potential to be a strong fill-in for All-Star Félix Bautista, who will miss the ‘24 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

High-leverage arms: Yennier Cano, Danny Coulombe, Cionel Pérez
Expect Cano to be the primary setup reliever ahead of Kimbrel, as the 29-year-old earned an All-Star nod during his 2023 rookie campaign. The 6-foot-4 Cuban right-hander showcased impressive stuff while posting a 1.01 WHIP in a team-high 72 appearances.

Coulombe and Pérez give Hyde a pair of lefties to use for opportune matchups late in games. Coulombe had a 2.81 ERA over 61 appearances in his first year in Baltimore, while Pérez overcame a sluggish start to record a 2.35 ERA in 32 second-half appearances last season.

Possible bumped starters: DL Hall, Cole Irvin, Tyler Wells
At the Winter Meetings, Elias said it is unlikely both Hall and Wells end up in the Orioles’ rotation. However, the club has not yet determined how it plans to deploy either pitcher.

Of the two, Wells is more likely to seize a spot on Baltimore’s starting staff. The 29-year-old right-hander had a 3.18 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP in 18 first-half outings (17 starts) last season. Meanwhile, the 25-year-old Hall has been solid in a relief role over the past two years (a 3.38 ERA in 28 appearances).

There likely won’t be room in the O’s rotation for Irvin, who is out of Minor League options. But the 29-year-old southpaw could be a quality long man, as he had a 3.26 ERA in 12 relief outings last season.

X-factor: Dillon Tate
Tate never pitched in the big leagues in 2023, due to forearm and elbow injuries that prevented him from making it past a Minor League rehab assignment. But the 29-year-old right-hander is healthy and throwing this offseason, and the Orioles are optimistic he can return to his form from ‘22, when he recorded a 3.05 ERA in 67 appearances.

“I think we’re going to get a much different Dillon Tate experience in 2024 than we had in 2023, and that would be great for our bullpen,” Elias said.

Additional 40-man candidates: Keegan Akin, Bryan Baker, Mike Baumann, Nick Vespi, Jacob Webb, Bruce Zimmermann
Let’s assume Baltimore’s bullpen has four locks (Kimbrel, Cano, Coulombe, Pérez) and also includes Tate, Irvin and either Hall or Wells. That would leave only one open spot in an eight-man bullpen.

Baker (a 3.60 ERA in 46 games last season), Baumann (a 3.76 ERA in 60 appearances) and Webb (a 3.69 ERA in 54 outings between the Angels and O’s) are the front-runners from this group. And if the Orioles decide to exclude Irvin (who would be a fourth lefty), then perhaps two from that trio make the Opening Day ‘pen.