Everything you need to know about O's '20 Draft

Going into the 2020 MLB Draft with as much to gain as any team, the Orioles wrapped up on Thursday with one of their more interesting classes. When the dust settled, the O's had selected four college bats and made two high-upside plays on high schoolers, headlined by their taking of slugging college outfielder Heston Kjerstad second overall. It was the first No. 2 overall pick in franchise history and the second Draft at the helm for executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias and assistant GM of analytics Sig Mejdal, who arrived from Houston less than two years ago looking to rebuild largely through the Draft.

Consider the six players selected on Wednesday and Thursday a continuation of those goals. The Orioles went far off most mocks to take Kjerstad, who they believed would’ve emerged as a Golden Spikes Award candidate had the college season not been cut short. Baltimore then followed that pick with three more college hitters: Mississippi State shortstop Jordan Westburg 30th overall, Tulane outfielder Hudson Haskin in the second round and University of Mississippi shortstop Anthony Servideo in the third. The O's rounded out their night by taking Florida prep third baseman Coby Mayo in the fourth round, and Iowa high school righty Carter Baumler in the fifth.

• Orioles Draft Tracker

Now what?
The signing deadline this year is Aug. 1.

If a club exceeds its assigned pool, it faces a penalty. Teams that outspend their allotment by zero to five percent pay a 75 percent tax on the overage. At higher thresholds, clubs lose future picks: a first-rounder and a 75 percent tax for surpassing their pool by more than five and up to 10 percent; a first- and a second-rounder and a 100 percent tax for more than 10 and up to 15 percent; and two first-rounders and a 100 percent tax for more than 15 percent.

In eight years with these rules, teams have exceeded their allotment a total of 149 times, but never by more than five percent. Twenty-one of the 30 teams outspent their pool last year.

The shortened nature of this year’s Draft brought on new calculus across the league in terms of signability, the expectation being if teams were going to take gambles with such little margin for error, they’d have to do so being pretty sure they’d be able to strike deals with those players. The Orioles’ first order of business now will be to do just that with Mayo and Baumler, as well as ink first-rounder Kjerstad.

Neither should necessarily be a problem. Kjerstad is expected to command significantly less than the No. 2 overall pick’s $7,789,900 slot value; it’s possible Westburg, Haskin and Servideo could sign under-slot deals as well. That should free the Orioles up to offer over-slot deals that convince Mayo and Baulmer to forgo their college commitments. They have more spending power than any other team, with $13,894,300 in bonus pool money at their disposal.

As of Friday afternoon, a source with knowledge of the situation said the Orioles and Mayo were nearing a deal in the range of $1.7 million to $1.75 million, well beyond the $565,600 slot value for the No. 103 overall pick. Baulmer, who went 133rd overall (slot value: $422,300), told The Des Moines County Register on Thursday night he plans to sign with Baltimore.

Full slot value info
Orioles' total pool: $13,894,300
No. 2 overall pick: $7,789,900
No. 30 overall pick: $2,365,500
No. 39 overall pick: $1,906,800
No. 74 overall pick: $844,200
No. 103 overall pick: $565,600
No. 133 overall pick: $422,300

Trend wrap
The official line is the Orioles took the best player available with each of their picks, regardless of position or need, as most teams tend to do these days. But clear trends resulted from that, especially when you compare this year’s Draft and the O's 2019 crop. Five of the club's six picks this time around were position players, with their first four coming from the college ranks. They spent their first eight picks on bats in 2019; if you combine Elias’ first two Drafts with the Orioles, he used 13 of his first 14 picks on position players. Ten of those were college players.

In the age of advanced analytics and homegrown rebuilds, this makes sense. It’s largely the same model used in rebuilds earlier this decade by the Astros and Cubs, the organizations with more current Orioles ties than any other. Both of those clubs stockpiled position players in their Drafts, either to develop pitching or buy or trade for it later. And compared to high-risk demographics like high schoolers and pitchers, college bats are simply considered safer bets in the Draft. That is especially important to remember given this year’s shortened Draft.

First-round fact
Besides his ties to the north Texas institution Amarillo Water Still, and his furry friend Oreo? Let’s see. Asked who he modeled his game off of, Kjerstad said he watched video of Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey Jr. and Mike Trout, hoping “to learn what all those guys do so great and what I can do to reach that level.” As a prospect, the Orioles compared Kjerstad to Marlins 2019 first-rounder JJ Bleday, who rocketed up the Draft board last spring thanks to a huge year at Vanderbilt.

Day 2 name to watch
Some think the Orioles pulled off a major steal in grabbing Baumler, whose commitment to TCU was considered strong, in the fifth round. They see an excellent athlete, talented enough to receive football scholarship offers (as a kicker) and play various positions on the diamond at the amateur level. On the mound, he has a quick arm, a fastball that’s been up to 92-94 mph, an 11-5 curve that profiles as a plus offering and he is considered a strike thrower. Baumler was MLB Pipeline analysts Johnathan Mayo’s favorite O's pick when the Draft wrapped, and Baltimore is excited about him too.

NDFA strategy
Given how Elias and Mejdal pride themselves on their ability to mine the later rounds of the Draft for hidden gems, it stands to reason the Orioles would target similar players in the non-drafted free-agent market this year. That usually includes undersized and overlooked players from Division II and III schools, often in the northeast, whose peripheral stats or underlying metrics hint at significant ability despite the lower level of competition. They’ll target arms with excellent walk-to-strikeout ratios and standout spin rates, and bats that show strong exit velocity and swing path data, if any is available.

The last word
Scouting supervisor Brad Ciolek: “We think we got a really good blend of guys who can move quickly through the Minor League system, and also some high-ceiling high school guys with our last through selections.”