What could the Mets' roster look like in 2024?

This story was excerpted from Anthony DiComo’s Mets Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

Since the Mets’ Trade Deadline selloff, both owner Steve Cohen and general manager Billy Eppler have discussed their desire to be competitive next season despite taking a step back from the sorts of mega-contracts that dominated their spending last winter. But what does that mean exactly? How far will the Mets go?

Here’s one educated guess at how the 2024 Mets could look:

Position player locks: Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, Francisco Alvarez, Starling Marte

Internal possibilities: Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, Ronny Mauricio

Almost certainly gone: Daniel Vogelbach

Of the Mets’ rookies, only Alvarez has played well enough to earn status as a shoo-in Opening Day starter. Marte’s health is looking like it will remain an issue throughout the rest of this season, but he’s under guaranteed contract for two more years and isn’t going anywhere. So long as he’s healthy, he’ll be the starting right fielder.

That leaves potential holes in left field, designated hitter and third base (or second, if the Mets choose to deploy McNeil elsewhere). Presumably, the Mets can choose an everyday third baseman from among the group of Baty, Vientos and Mauricio, with Baty -- despite his recent demotion to Triple-A Syracuse -- still the leading candidate.

How to fill out the rest? Last offseason, the Cubs managed to snag former National League MVP Cody Bellinger on a one-year, $17.5 million prove-it deal with a mutual option for 2024. That’s the type of flyer the Mets would love to take. Might Rhys Hoskins be an option after missing this entire season due to injury? Could elder outfielders Teoscar Hernández, Joc Pederson, Hunter Renfroe or Jorge Soler be had on short-term deals? Plenty of options exist for a Mets team in need of some thump at the corner outfield and DH positions.

Rotation locks: Kodai Senga, José Quintana

Internal possibilities: Mike Vasil, David Peterson, Tylor Megill

Almost certainly gone: Carlos Carrasco

Of the Mets’ current rotation members, Senga and Quintana are under guaranteed contract for next season. Since Quintana survived the Trade Deadline without being dealt, only an offseason trade or injury would prevent him from being a cog of the 2024 rotation.

Peterson has pitched better since the All-Star break and will probably receive a chance to compete for a rotation job, unless the Mets sign at least three starting pitchers on guaranteed deals. Vasil should also get a chance to crack the rotation, and although Megill has struggled all year, he’s still a pre-arbitration player who isn’t going anywhere for that reason.

This is an area in which the Mets are going to need to spend liberally in free agency if they wish to succeed, but the top targets available -- Shohei Ohtani, Julio Urías, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola and others -- should all command long-term deals. Those are the types of contracts that could hamstring the roster in future seasons, and which most around the industry expect Eppler to avoid. One exception is Yoshinobu Yamamoto, whom the Orix Buffaloes of Japan’s Pacific League are expected to post this winter. Yamamoto, who will be 25 on Thursday, makes sense because his prime years align with the franchise’s most competitive window in 2025 and beyond.

With months to go until free agency, it’s difficult to determine which pitchers will be willing to sign the sort of short-term deals that Quintana did last winter, but the Mets will surely have interest in anyone who makes the list. Thirty-six-year-old Lance Lynn, coming off a disappointing season but with decent numbers under the hood, profiles as a possibility. Sonny Gray will be 34 and compares favorably to Quintana. James Paxton will be 35 and should come even cheaper than Gray.

Bullpen locks: Edwin Díaz, Adam Ottavino, Brooks Raley

Internal possibilities: Grant Hartwig, Sam Coonrod, Drew Smith, Phil Bickford, Trevor Gott, Josh Walker, Nathan Lavender

The bad news is the Mets have lots of work to do here, even with Díaz, Ottavino and Raley all likely to return. (Díaz is on a guaranteed contract; the Mets hold a team-friendly option on Raley; and Ottavino has already expressed his intention to exercise his team option.)

The good news is that quality relievers are often available on one- and two-year deals. Even if they non-tender Smith or Gott, the Mets have a reasonable core of in-house options they can supplement with pitchers on the open market. In particular, Mets officials are excited by Hartwig as a future piece and are eager to see how Coonrod fares once he returns to health this month.