The likelihood of a no-hitter in each ballpark

Attending a no-hitter is on every fan’s baseball bucket list. Unfortunately, there’s no way to prepare or plan for such a random bit of happy happenstance.

Or is there?

Baseball is a numbers game, so let’s crunch the numbers to determine your likelihood of attending a no-hitter, based on venue.

To determine this, we used an extremely intricate and complex mathematical formula -- one that we are reluctant to reveal to the general public. But in the interest of transparency in this important public service, here it is: No-hitters divided by games played. And because postseason no-hitters count, we’re including postseason games in each ballpark’s games total.

So here’s what the math says about each active ballpark’s chances of hosting a no-hitter, from most likely to least likely. (No, this doesn’t take into account the relative strength of each team’s pitching staff or lineup over the years, nor does it factor in strength of schedules over time. We’re mostly having fun here, but there is some intel you can glean from the ranking below.)

1) Globe Life Field (Rangers): 2 in 127 games (1.57%)

To put this percentage in perspective, if 1.57% of all Major League games played since 1876 resulted in a no-hitter, that would be 3,658 no-nos -- more than 10 times as many as have actually been recognized.

The Rangers’ new ballpark is off to an odd start. It has already hosted 16 postseason games, including a World Series, with none featuring the home team. Corey Seager already ranks third all-time in homers in the building, and he hasn’t even suited up for the Rangers yet. And there have been two no-hitters at Globe Life, both of which were thrown against the Rangers (the Padres’ Joe Musgrove on April 9, 2021, and the Yankees’ Corey Kluber on May 19, 2021). Between Texas amplifying its offense this offseason and the law of averages, things should start to cool down. But so far, Globe Life is the best place on the globe to see a no-no.

2) T-Mobile Park (Mariners): 6 in 1,781 games (0.34%)

The Mariners’ home opened in mid-1999, and it took nearly 13 years before it hosted its first no-hitter. But boy, did it make up for lost time. In 2012, T-Mobile Park was the site of two perfect games (Phil Humber and Felix Hernandez) and a combined no-hitter (Kevin Millwood and the bullpen on June 8). Hisashi Iwakuma threw a no-hitter here against the Orioles in 2015, and in 2021, visitors John Means (Orioles) and Spencer Turnbull (Tigers) both tossed one. Now that Kyle Seager, who set a record by appearing in nine no-hitters with a single team, has retired, perhaps it will stop raining no-hitters in Seattle.

3) Citi Field (Mets): 3 in 1,012 games (0.3%)

The Mets franchise’s first no-hitter came 50 years into their existence, when Johan Santana blanked the Cardinals on 134 pitches on June 1, 2012. The 2015 season produced two no-nos by visitors -- one unexpected (the Giants’ Chris Heston) and one decidedly more likely (current Met -- then National -- Max Scherzer).

4) loanDepot Park (Marlins): 2 in 751 games (0.27%)

The Marlins, in existence since 1993, already have as many no-hitters (six) as the Pirates, who have been in the National League since 1887. Two of the six were thrown in this building -- Henderson Alvarez (2013) and Edinson Vólquez (2017).

5) Oakland Coliseum (A’s): 11 in 4,311 games (0.26%)

When the A’s moved to this building in 1968, it had been 21 years since the franchise’s last no-hitter. (The A’s went without a no-no the entirety of their tenure in Kansas City.) But in that inaugural year in Oakland, Jim “Catfish” Hunter threw a perfect game at home against the Twins. Vida Blue threw a no-no in 1970 (also against the Twins) and was part of a combined no-no in 1975. Nolan Ryan threw the sixth of his record seven no-hitters in 1990 for the Rangers, and the 2010s saw three A's no-hitters here -- Dallas Braden’s perfect game in 2010 and the no-nos tossed by Sean Manaea (2018) and Mike Fiers (2019) in successive seasons.

6) Dodger Stadium (Dodgers): 13 in 5,170 games (0.25%)

Now you know why you see so many celebrities in the stands at Dodgers games: They’re hoping to see a no-hitter! The first in this building was actually thrown by a member of the Los Angeles Angels (Bo Belinsky) on May 5, 1962, but Sandy Koufax threw one the following month and two more in 1963 and 1965. Nearly 20 years elapsed between Bill Singer’s no-hitter on July 20, 1970, and Fernando Valenzuela’s on June 29, 1990, but Dodger Stadium made up for lost time with four more in the 1990s (a perfect game by the Expos’ Dennis Martínez in 1991, and no-hitters by Kevin Gross in 1992, the Braves’ Kent Mercker in 1994 and Ramon Martinez in 1995). Clayton Kershaw threw a no-hitter here in 2014, and Dodger Stadium’s last two no-hitters were thrown by members of the Cubs -- Jake Arrieta in 2015 and a combined no-no initiated by Zach Davies in 2021.

7) Guaranteed Rate Field (White Sox): 5 in 2,439 games (0.21%)

We can’t guarantee this rate of one no-no for every 488 games played on the South Side -- especially with Mark Buehrle, who was responsible for the building’s first two no-hitters (a no-no against the Rangers in 2007 and a perfect game against the Rays in 2009), unavailable. But Francisco Liriano (2011), Lucas Giolito (2020) and Carlos Rodón (2021) have ensured this rate is not entirely Buehrle-dependent.

8) Nationals Park (Nationals): 2 in 1,103 games (0.18%)

Jordan Zimmermann’s no-hitter against the Marlins in 2014 was the first no-no tossed in D.C. since Bobby Burke’s for the original Washington Senators in 1931. Scherzer followed it up the next year with his first of two in 2015 (the other coming at the aforementioned Citi Field).

9) Angel Stadium (Angels): 8 in 4,467 games (0.18%)

If you’re scoring at home, this means attending a game in the L.A. area gives you a 0.22% chance of seeing a no-hitter. So that’s worth all the traffic. Angel Stadium has the same number of no-hitters as Wrigley Field despite being 50 years younger. The no-nos here were thrown by Clyde Wright (1970), Nolan Ryan (1974 and 1975), Bert Blyleven (1977), Joe Cowley (1986), a combined effort from Mark Langston and Mike Witt (1990), Jered Weaver (2012), and a combined effort from Taylor Cole and Félix Peña on the night the Angels honored the memory of Tyler Skaggs (2019).

10) Oracle Park (Giants): 3 in 1,776 games (0.17%)

For the record, 0.19% of games played at Candlestick Park were no-hitters (six in 3,188 games), so the newer building is just barely behind the San Francisco standard. The Giants’ home had three no-nos in a five-season span (Jonathan Sanchez in 2009, Matt Cain’s perfect game in 2012 and Tim Lincecum in 2014), but it’s been a while.

11) Fenway Park (Red Sox): 14 in 8,677 games (0.16%)

No ballpark has seen more no-hitters but, of course, this is the oldest ballpark in baseball. Half of Fenway’s no-hitters took place between 1914 and 1926 (including the combined no-no in which Babe Ruth walked the leadoff hitter and then was ejected for punching the home-plate umpire while arguing about the call), and none has taken place since Jon Lester blanked the Royals here in 2008. So as devoted as we may be to the numbers, we have to admit Fenway’s are artificially inflated by the fact that it existed in the Deadball Era.

12) Rogers Centre (Blue Jays): 4 in 2,513 games (0.16%)

You are advised here to study the visiting teams’ pitching probables, because none of the four no-hitters at Rogers was tossed by a Blue Jays pitcher. In fact, your best bet is to attend a Justin Verlander start against the Jays, because Verlander threw two of the four -- in 2011 with the Tigers and in 2019 with the Astros. The A’s Dave Stewart (1990) and the Mariners’ Canadian-born James Paxton (2018) threw the others. The Blue Jays franchise’s only no-hitter was thrown by Dave Stieb in Cleveland in 1990.

13) Citizens Bank Park (Phillies): 2 in 1,436 games (0.14%)

Roy Halladay’s NL Division Series shutdown of the Reds in 2010 gooses the numbers here. Josh Beckett’s no-no for the Dodgers in 2014 is the only regular-season no-hitter at Citizens Bank Park.

14) Progressive Field (Guardians): 3 in 2,219 games (0.14%)

Randy Johnson took a no-hitter into the eighth inning in the first game in the history of then-Jacobs Field in 1994, but it was 17 years before the Angels’ Ervin Santana actually completed the building’s first no-no and another 10 before it happened again. However, with two no-hitters in 2021 (the Reds’ Wade Miley on May 7 and the Brewers’ Corbin Burnes and Josh Hader on Sept. 11), this could be a place to ride the hot hand.

15) Great American Ball Park (Reds): 2 in 1,436 games (0.13%)

Homer Bailey (2013) and Jake Arrieta (2016) both threw their second of two career no-hitters in Cincinnati, so the trend is very clear: If the pitcher on a given day has one career no-hitter to his name, your odds of catching a no-no at the Reds’ home increase exponentially.

16) American Family Field (Brewers): 2 in 1,673 games (0.12%)

The only no-hitters in the history of this building were thrown by Cubs pitchers (Carlos Zambrano in 2008 and Alec Mills in 2020). Zambrano’s wasn’t even thrown against the Brewers -- it was against the Astros in a game that was moved from Houston because of Hurricane Ike. Chicago has zero no-hitters in the last last 49 years at Wrigley Field, so … Definitely go to a Cubs game here.

17) Minute Maid Park (Astros): 2 in 1,774 games (0.11%)

The first no-no here was tossed by Mike Fiers against the Dodgers in 2015, and Aaron Sanchez initiated a combined no-no here against the Mariners in 2019.

18) Tropicana Field (Rays): 2 in 1,906 games (0.10%)

The only no-hitters in Tropicana’s history came within about a month of each other in 2010 -- the D-backs’ Edwin Jackson on June 25 and Matt Garza against the Tigers on July 26. So let’s be honest: You might have missed your chance here.

19) Chase Field (D-backs): 2 in 1,912 games (0.10%)

The Cardinals’ Jose Jimenez threw a no-hitter in this building’s second season of existence (1999), then 21 seasons passed without one. Finally, Tyler Gilbert got the D-backs off the schneid by throwing a no-hitter in his first career start, on Aug. 14, 2021. Chase Field is back!

20) Wrigley Field (Cubs): 8 in 8,333 games (0.10%)

As stated earlier, right now it appears you’re more likely to see a Cubs pitcher throw a no-hitter in Milwaukee than at Wrigley. The last such occurrence was on Sept. 2, 1972, when Milt Pappas walked the 27th Padres batter he faced to lose a perfect game before securing the final out of the no-no. It was nearly 43 years until the Phillies’ Cole Hamels threw the next Wrigley no-no, in 2015. Your best hope here is the law of averages finally coming through for the Cubbies (as it did in the 2016 World Series).

21) Kauffman Stadium (Royals): 3 in 3,885 games (0.08%)

Speaking of the law of averages, the only no-hitters at The K were thrown by the Angels’ Nolan Ryan in 1973, Jim Colborn in 1977 and Bret Saberhagen in 1991. This place is long overdue.

22) Petco Park (Padres): 1 in 1,424 games (0.07%)

In 2013, Tim Lincecum threw the only no-hitter here, for the Giants. But with the Padres finally having achieved their franchise’s first no-no with Joe Musgrove’s effort on the road in 2021, perhaps Petco will rise up the rankings soon.

23) PNC Park (Pirates): 1 in 1,651 games (0.06%)

Homer Bailey’s first career no-no here, on Sept. 28, 2012, is the only no-hitter at PNC. But that’s still one more than the Pirates’ longtime home at Forbes Field, where they played from 1909 to 1970. Three Rivers Stadium hosted three.

24) Comerica Park (Tigers): 1 in 1,749 games (0.06%)

Technically, Justin Verlander’s 2007 no-hitter against the Brewers is the only one in this building. But we all know what happened to Armando Galarraga in 2010, so if you want to mentally bump Comerica up a few spots, it’s understandable.

25) Coors Field (Rockies): 1 in 2,138 games (0.05%)

The Dodgers’ Hideo Nomo’s no-no here on Sept. 17, 1996, really should count for two. That was a baseball miracle, and lightning rarely strikes twice. So if you’re chasing a no-hitter specifically, we really can’t advocate coming to Coors.

26) Camden Yards (Orioles): 1 in 2,357 games (0.04%)

And Nomo threw one here on April 4, 2001. Nomo will not be inducted into the Hall of Fame any time soon, but to have the only no-hitter in two active ballparks is a heck of an achievement.

27) Target Field (Twins): 0 in 925 games (0%)

Target Field opened in 2009. The last no-hitter in Minneapolis came courtesy of Eric Milton on Sept. 11, 1999, at the Metrodome.

28) Yankee Stadium (Yankees): 0 in 1,038 games (0%)

The original Yankee Stadium was host to 11 no-hitters (including Don Larsen’s perfect game in the 1956 World Series), which is more than any of the defunct ballparks. But the new place, which opened in 2009, has struck out.

29) Busch Stadium (Cardinals): 0 in 1,238 games (0%)

Having opened in 2006, this is the oldest active ballpark without a no-hitter. The old Busch Memorial Stadium (aka Busch Stadium II) had only two no-hitters in 40 seasons of existence, and both were thrown by Bob Forsch (in 1978 and 1983).

30) Truist Park (Braves): 0 in 368 games (0%)

Truist opened in 2016 and has yet to host an officially recognized no-hitter. However, it did have Madison Bumgarner’s seven-inning “notable achievement” in 2021 -- the first “no-hitter” under the seven-inning doubleheader rules used in 2020 and ’21. So that’s better than nothing.