5 Statcast facts for NLCS: Cubs vs. Dodgers

Last season, the Cubs defeated the Dodgers for the National League pennant on their way to a long-awaited World Series championship. Now the Dodgers have their shot at a rematch.
The NL Championship Series presented by Camping World begins tonight at Dodger Stadium, with L.A. hoping to reach its first Fall Classic since winning it all in 1988. The NL West champs helped their cause by sweeping the D-backs in three games in the NL Division Series presented by T-Mobile, while the Cubs had to eke out a wild, one-run victory in Game 5 on Thursday night in Washington.
:: NLCS schedule and coverage ::
• Dress for NLCS: Cubs | Dodgers
Statcast™ has been following both clubs' exploits, from Opening Day through the NLDS, tracking strengths and weaknesses. With that in mind, here are five things to watch in the NLCS.
1. The Dodgers know how to wear down a pitching staff
It's bad enough for the Cubs that they had to slog through a grueling five-game series against the Nationals, capped by an exhausting Game 5 that further drained their supply of arms. Now they go up against a team adept at working pitchers hard. In three NLDS games against Arizona, L.A. hurlers threw a total of 383 pitches, while the D-backs had to dig deep for 530 -- at least 174 in each contest.
During the regular season, the Dodgers had MLB's lowest chase rate (24.2 percent) and tied for second in most pitches seen while ahead in the count (29.1 percent). So far in the postseason, they have been even better. So, if Chicago's staff is going to make it through this NLCS, it's going to have to earn it.
Lowest chase rate in the 2017 postseason *

1. Dodgers: 23.7 percent
   
2. Astros: 25.8 percent
   
3. Nationals: 27.3 percent
   
4. Yankees: 30.3 percent
   
5. D-backs: 30.4 percent
   * Through Division Series
   Most pitches seen while ahead in count in the 2017 postseason *
   
6. Dodgers: 32.0 percent
   
7. Yankees: 29.4 percent
   
8. Astros: 29.1 percent
   
9. Nationals: 29.0 percent
   
10. Red Sox: 26.9 percent
    * Through Division Series
    2. Don't fall asleep against Willson Contreras
    Nationals catcher Jose Lobaton found out the hard way in Game 5 of the NLDS, when replay review showed he was picked off first base by Contreras in the bottom of the eighth inning of the Cubs' 9-8 victory. Contreras uncorked an 80.3-mph throw to first that nabbed Lobaton, showcasing the arm that led all qualified backstops in highest average strength on "maximum effort" throws, or throws within a player's 90th percentile of effort or higher. Contreras also owns the three hardest catcher throws on steal attempts of second base that Statcast™ has tracked in the postseason since the technology launched in 2015.

Highest average catcher arm strength on "max effort" throws in 2017
Minimum 10 max-effort throws
1. Willson Contreras: 87.2 mph

2. Elias Díaz: 86.8 mph
   
3. Gary Sánchez: 86.6 mph
   
4. Martín Maldonado: 86.5 mph
   
5. J.T. Realmuto: 85.7 mph
   Hardest throws on steal attempts of second base in 2015-17 postseason
   1 (tie). Willson Contreras: 86.6 mph, '16 NLCS Game 2
   1 (tie). Willson Contreras: 86.6 mph, '16 World Series Game 5
   
6. Willson Contreras: 85.5 mph, '17 NLDS Game 2
   
7. Travis d'Arnaud: 85.3 mph, '15 World Series Game 5
   
8. Gary Sanchez: 84.9 mph, '17 ALDS Game 2
   3. Kenta Maeda could be a Dodgers difference-maker in relief
   In postseasons past, the club's lack of reliable relief options in front of closer Kenley Jansen caused problems. But against Arizona, non-Jansen relievers were solid, allowing three runs on six hits over eight innings with no walks and six strikeouts. And the most impressive of the bunch was Maeda, who looked sharp and has exhibited increased fastball velocity (93.0 mph) coming out of the 'pen.
   Including the regular season, the righty has a 14-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 10 relief innings. In the NLDS, he retired all six batters he faced -- four by strikeout -- and got seven swings and misses out of an efficient 21 pitches. It's a tiny sample, but that 33.3-percent rate leads all pitchers this postseason.
   Highest swinging-strike rate in the 2017 postseason *
   
9. Kenta Maeda: 33.3 percent
   
10. Sean Doolittle: 24.3 percent
    
11. Masahiro Tanaka: 22.8 percent
    
12. Fernando Rodney: 21.7 
    
13. Carlos Carrasco: 21.2 percent
    * Through Division Series

4. Wade Davis may bend, but he rarely ever breaks
With the Cubs virtually out of bullpen options and still needing to record seven outs at the end of Game 5 of the NLDS, Joe Maddon rode Davis as long as he possibly could -- and it paid off. In terms of expected batting average, a Statcast™ metric that factors in quality of contact and real-life strikeouts to determine how batters should have fared, Davis was one of the stingiest relievers in baseball in "pressure cooker" situations: The tying or go-ahead run standing either at the plate or on the basepaths. After allowing the Nationals to get within a run of the Cubs in the eighth on Thursday, Davis retired three of the last four batters he faced with everything on the line.
Lowest xBA allowed with tying/go-ahead run on base/at plate
Relievers in 2017 regular season
Minimum 100 at-bats decided with tying/go-ahead run on base/at plate

1. Kenley Jansen: .141
   
2. Corey Knebel: .150
   
3. Andrew Miller: .168
   4. Wade Davis: .169
   
4. Edwin Díaz: .173

5. The Cubs' rotation could give L.A. some problems
After a slow start coming off their long run through last October, Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks found their respective grooves when it came to commanding their darting mixes of sinkers and two-seamers. Tack on All-Star break acquisition José Quintana, and the Cubs featured three of the Majors' best sinkerballing starters over the course of the second half. Meanwhile, if there were a pair of pitches that were the Dodgers' kryptonite in the regular season, it may have been two-seam and sinking fastballs. Los Angeles posted the third-worst batting average of any team against those pitches in 2017.
Lowest BA allowed on two-seamers/sinkers after the All-Star break
Minimum 50 at-bats decided on two-seamers/sinkers
1. Jose Quintana: .194

2. Brad Peacock: .206
   
3. Parker Bridwell: .208
   
4. José Berríos: .215
   
5. Homer Bailey: .222
   6. Kyle Hendricks: .225
   
6. Jhoulys Chacín: .232
   
7. JC Ramirez: .235
   
8. Jakob Junis: .238
   10. Jake Arrieta: .239
   
   Lowest batting average vs. two-seamers/sinkers by team in 2017 regular season
   1 (tie). Padres: .263
   1 (tie). Athletics: .263
   3. Dodgers: .269
   
9. Giants: .279
   
10. Phillies: .280