Philly crowds, D-backs' speed key factors in NLCS Game 6

PHILADELPHIA -- After the home team won each of the first four games in the National League Championship Series, the Phillies seized control of the best-of-seven set with a pivotal Game 5 victory in Arizona.

Now, as the series shifts back to Philadelphia, the D-backs will need to win back-to-back games at Citizens Bank Park if they want to claim the NL pennant, starting with Game 6 on Monday night, when they will send right-hander Merrill Kelly to the mound against veteran righty Aaron Nola. The Phillies, meanwhile, need to win just one of the next two games in front of the hometown fans to advance to their second straight World Series.

“We have to go out and play our best game in Game 6,” D-backs manager Torey Lovullo said. “We have a very tough pitcher that we're going to be facing, but once again, I'm going to put it on our group. I believe in Merrill Kelly, I believe in the guys to go out there and execute and play at a higher level and make plays and do things right.”

While Arizona certainly faces an uphill battle -- teams with a 3-2 series lead have gone on to win the series 79 of 112 times (71%) -- things are far from over.

Here’s a look at the three questions that will ultimately help determine the NL champion:

1. Can D-backs break the Bank?
Not only have Phillies players and manager Rob Thomson talked endlessly about their home-field advantage over the past two postseasons, but opposing players and managers have also acknowledged the raucous atmosphere at Citizens Bank Park.

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Thomson has said it’s the loudest he’s ever heard a crowd inside a stadium, but it goes beyond that.

“It's not just how loud it is, but how long it goes,” Thomson said. “It goes from first pitch to the last pitch. It's just an incredible atmosphere. I would suggest, for people who have never been here before, bring some ear plugs.”

While the opposition would never admit being affected by the crowd, it's difficult to argue with results. The Phillies are a perfect 6-0 this postseason at home, where they've outscored their opponents 39-8. That includes outscoring the D-backs 15-3 in the first two games of the NLCS, during which Philadelphia also had big edges in hits (20-8) and home runs (6-1).

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Going back to last postseason, the Phillies are 12-2 at home (with both losses coming in the 2022 World Series) with a +52 run differential. They're just 7-7 with a +2 run differential on the road.

“First of all, we're very respectful of where we're going and the team that we're playing,” Lovullo said of the series shifting back to Philadelphia. “But once again, we have to put it on us, on our dugout, our clubhouse and just go and do the things that we do best.”

2. Can Nola stay perfect in potential clinchers?
Nola has made a habit out of stepping up in potential clinching games.

He earned the win when the club snapped its lengthy postseason drought by clinching a Wild Card spot on Oct. 3 last season in Houston. He again earned the win in Philadelphia's postseason-clinching win vs. the Pirates this season. Nola allowed just one run over 13 1/3 innings in those two victories -- but he has been even more dominant in postseason clinchers.

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Nola is a perfect 2-0 in his two potential clinch outings, tossing a combined 13 2/3 scoreless innings.

“You just never know with this game. That's why it's so beautiful,” Nola said of his success in big games. “But the only thing I can control is the controllables. So that's kind of what I always think about and focus on in my routine leading up to a start, which kind of keeps me focused.”

3. Can Carroll and Co. steal the show?
The D-backs stole 166 bases during the regular season, second most in the Majors -- and the most by any postseason qualifier. They kept running in the early rounds, swiping a combined seven bases in just five games in the NL Wild Card Series and NL Division Series.

But they have slammed the brakes in the NLCS.

Arizona has just one stolen base through five games -- and that came off reliever Craig Kimbrel, whose struggles to hold runners has been well-documented. Aside from that Lourdes Gurriel Jr. steal in the ninth inning of Game 3, the D-backs have not even attempted to steal another base.

“They create momentum, they create chaos -- and we’ve limited that, for the most part,” Thomson said. “So I’m extremely happy about that.”

Even D-backs rookie sensation Corbin Carroll, who stole 54 bases during the regular season and two more in the NLDS, has yet to attempt a steal in the NLCS. To be fair, Carroll has not had many chances, as he's gone just 2-for-19 (.105) over the first five games.

Both hits were singles. He also walked once, was hit by a pitch and reached on an error.

Despite being on first base without a runner on second for 38 pitches in this series, Carroll has not so much as attempted to swipe a bag. Lovullo has mentioned not wanting to run into an out early in the game, but the D-backs might need to force the issue if they're going to steal (no pun intended) a pair of games in Philadelphia.

“The Phillies have done a great job of creating awareness and giving us the understanding that they're working hard to shut down the running game,” Lovullo said. “So you've got to give credit where credit is due. But we have to be as creative as possible to get that portion of our game going, because it's such an important piece of our puzzle.

“We have to get that figured out.”