2 key questions for each NL West team entering 2022

With the season, goodness, only days away now, it’s time to start previewing some divisions. While allowing for the fact that there are still surely plenty of moves to be made, we have a pretty good idea, at this point, what teams will generally look like. Today, we look at the National League West.

Previously: NL Central | AL Central | AL West

It is possible that future generations will look back at the 2021 National League West standings and say, “How in the heck did that happen?” Well, future generations, know that even when it was going on, we were all thinking the same thing: How is this happening?

For those of you who missed it -- there has been a lot going on! -- the Dodgers won 106 games last year … and finished second! To a team whose best player was a 34-year-old shortstop who hit .228 in his last full season before that one. To a team whose most dedicated fans thought it would be fortunate to win 85 games. To a team whose eight best hitters were all over 30. It was pretty crazy!

That team is a year older, and the D-backs are still transitioning, and the Dodgers look even better, and the Padres are missing their star and who in the world knows what’s going on with the Rockies. This was the most surprising division in baseball last year. But it still feels, in 2022, like this is Dodger Land.

Let’s go through each of the teams. They're listed alphabetically, and my standings prediction is below.

D-backs

1. Will this year be different?

The D-backs lost 110 games last year, which is a heckuva lot of games, one fewer than their infamous 2004 season. What have they done to respond to it? They added Jordan Luplow, Zach Davies, Mark Melancon and Óliver Pérez. That is probably not going to move the needle in a meaningful manner, though stranger things have happened. They’ll be better than they were in 2021, if only by accident. But yeah, the roster isn’t all that different.

2. Are we ever going to see the real Madison Bumgarner again?

Remember how the D-backs were willing to go much longer on a contract than the Giants, or really any other team, were to make sure they got the World Series MVP? Well, there are only two years left in that theoretical future -- if they buy out the remaining $14 million on his contract after the 2023 season, which is probably looking a little tempting right now. Suffice it to say, the D-backs haven’t exactly gotten Giants Bumgarner: Bumgarner has made 35 starts in two seasons (just one more than he made in his final season in San Francisco, the one where he put up the highest ERA of his career up to that point) and he has given the D-Backs a 5.07 ERA and a total of 188 innings. (He threw more than 188 innings in a season seven times for the Giants.) Expecting him to compete for another Cy Young is unreasonable, but you do wonder if a modest improvement could at least make him attractive to another team sometime over the next couple of years. He’s actually younger than you realize, only 32 years old, which is somehow younger than, say, rotation mate Merrill Kelly. (He’s younger than Aroldis Chapman, Jacob deGrom, DJ LeMahieu, Starling Marte, Miles Mikolas, Tommy Pham and Blake Treinen. He’s young!) Other superstar pitchers have had a finishing kick. Can he?

• Madison Bumgarner discusses first Spring Training start

Dodgers

1. Is it weird to ask if they have enough pitching?

The Dodgers are always so deep and prepared for whatever contingency that it does feel a little odd to question whether they’re going to run short on arms, but, well, they might be a little light on arms? At least in the rotation? When you look at this rotation right now, it’s arguably thin, right? Walker Buehler and Julio Urias: Nothing to worry about there. But Clayton Kershaw, for all his brilliance, only threw 121 2/3 innings last year and is 34 years old. After him? Some combination of Andrew Heaney, Tyler Anderson, Tony Gonsolin, David Price, maybe Andre Jackson, Mitch White? It is unclear when Trevor Bauer will be available. There are some good arms there, to be sure, but hardly much certainty. If you think the Dodgers can win 106 games again -- and many think they will -- you must have more confidence in that rotation than I do.

2. It’s World Series or bust, right?

Don’t listen to me on this. Listen to Dave Roberts:

That’s quite a statement, Dave Roberts: “We are winning the World Series in 2022. We will win the World Series this year. Put it on record.” Consider it put, Dave! This speaks, really, to the expectations in Chavez Ravine, not just this year but every year. When you put together a roster like this, when you put together a lineup like this (Freddie Freeman is on this team now!), winning the World Series is the obvious and overwhelming goal. What else should he say? What else can he say?

Giants

1. Those veterans can’t do that again … can they?

The wildest thing about the Giants’ 107 win season last year -- 107 wins! -- is that so much of it came on the backs of old hitters, guys in their 30s who had career years, including longtime Giants Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford and Buster Posey. Posey has retired, so the Giants are counting on Belt (33, almost 34) and Crawford (35), not to mention Evan Longoria (36), Tommy La Stella (33) and Mike Yastrzemski (31) even more than they had to last year. But time isn’t a flat circle: It actually goes forward, and makes you older and more tired and less effective. The Giants danced between the raindrops last year. They can’t do it again, can they? Is that even possible?

2. Is kismet repeatable?

Obviously, the “old guys get older” question is a reasonable one. But the Giants were one of those teams, in 2021, where everything seemed to click just right from the beginning. A large part of this is the system that Farhan Zaidi and his staff have put together: The results speak for themselves, and not just last year. But winning 107 games also requires a lot -- a lot -- of good fortune. Does that good fortune smile on them again? To that tune? The Giants could be nearly as good as they were last year and win, like, 17 fewer games. And with Posey and Kevin Gausman gone, and so many players a year older ... they might not be nearly as good as they were last year, maybe not even close. When you compare this roster to the Dodgers’, or even the Padres’, they sure look weaker. We should all give them the benefit of the doubt after last year. But that’s still a lot of doubt.

Padres

1. Can they hang on until Fernando Tatis Jr. comes back?

It sure is quite a bummer to make it through a whole lockout and then discover, in one of the first news items after it has ended, that one of the most electrifying players in the sport is out for three months. Tatis’ broken wrist put a dark cloud over the Padres, and, frankly, after the way last year ended, it’s not the only one. Still, you can totally see Tatis coming back in mid-June and absolutely laying waste to the league. Will the Padres still be in the playoff race by then? If so, well, you don’t get a better midseason boost than him.

2. Can the rotation be better?

Remember how the big fight of last Spring Training was whether or not the top Cy Young candidate in this rotation was Yu Darvish or Blake Snell? It turned out to be neither of them: The best starter on this team, by a wide margin, was Joe Musgrove, and he ended up adding a no-hitter to boot. They’re still the top three starters in the rotation this year and, needless to say, the Padres will go as far as they can take them. There’s reason to be enthusiastic: These are still three supremely talented pitchers. And now there’s a fully healed Mike Clevinger behind them. It’s possible we’re sleeping on the Padres rotation.

Rockies

1. Can we focus on 2022 for a second?

So much of the mockery directed at the Rockies this year has been focused on their long-term roster management, and that’s perfectly reasonable: If your plan is to trade away Nolan Arenado and his salary and then come back the very next year and agree to a huge contract with Kris Bryant … well, I’m not sure you actually have much of a plan. But putting all that aside: The Rockies should unquestionably be better in 2022. Bryant’s here, Randal Grichuk feels like a terrific fit, and the rotation was strong last year and even without Jon Gray should be again. Now, they only won 74 games last year, so let’s not get carried away. But you want your team to try to get better from year to year, don’t you? The Rockies did that.

2. Yeah, though, about that plan?

Lots of Rockies fans are going to buy Kris Bryant jerseys, and they should: Kris Bryant is awesome. But it still makes you feel a lot better as a fan if your team has a clear direction, and it’s far from certain that the Rockies do. The Ryan McMahon extension is an investment in a homegrown player who hasn’t proven he can be an impact player, Charlie Blackmon has been here so long he was drafted the year after the Rockies last reached the World Series, and everyone’s afraid the Rockies are going to have another Arenado situation on their hands with Bryant in a couple of years. The Rockies will be better in 2022, but still not good enough to contend, particularly not in this division. Then what happens? What are fans supposed to get excited about next?

Predictions:

Dodgers: 102-60
Padres: 88-75
Giants: 86-76
Rockies: 78-84
D-backs: 70-92

I think this division is a little stronger, top to bottom, than it is widely given credit for. I’m higher on the Padres, D-backs and Rockies than most, and lower on the Dodgers and Giants. No matter what, though: It’s smooth sailing for the Dodgers. (This is what we said last year, too.)