Inbox: Yorke, Horwitz and more

I hope everyone is having a great holiday season and wish you all a Happy New Year! Before 2021 ends, let's squeeze in one more Pipeline Inbox.

Yorke became the most stunning pick of the 2020 Draft when the Red Sox selected him 17th overall, but he more than justified their faith by establishing himself as one of the best pure hitters and second-base prospects in the Minors during his pro debut this year. As a 19-year-old, he batted .325/.412/.516 -- including .361/.450/.598 after a slow first month -- with 14 homers and 13 steals in 97 games between Low-A and High-A and led the Low-A East in batting (.323) and OPS (.913).

With Yorke, it's not so much that other clubs missed on him as it was that he was hard to evaluate because he didn't get seen much. Shoulder surgery before his California high school junior season in 2019 limited him to DH duty during the spring and restricted his appearances on the showcase circuit, and the coronavirus shutdown ended his senior year after just five games. Boston scouts saw enough to believe he could become an elite hitter, and so far that looks like a great call.

Lesko is extremely advanced for a high school kid, which is why we have him ranked as the best pitcher -- prep or college -- and ninth overall on our 2022 Draft Top 100 Prospects list. The first junior ever to win Gatorade's national baseball player of the year award, the Buford (Ga.) High star has three quality pitches (92-97 mph fastball, improving curveball and what might be the best changeup in the Draft) as well as polish, athleticism and projection.

At the same time, Lesko is a high school right-hander, and that Draft demographic scares teams more than any other. I wouldn't call him a lock for the top 10 picks next July, but I bet he does go that high because he's really more like a college pitcher than a high school pitcher.

Horwitz has quietly batted .299/.388/.453 since the Blue Jays made him a 24th-round pick out of Radford, including .373/.448/.646 in the final two months of this season before hitting .375/.459/.484 in the Arizona Fall League. He controls the strike zone well and is a reliable contact hitter from the left side of the plate, but he's going to have to prove he can do more than that to make an impact at first base in the big leagues.

Until he develops more power to profile better at his position, Horwitz is more of a sleeper than a Top 30 Prospect in a deep Toronto farm system. He's a bottom-of-the-scale runner with below-average arm strength, so he's probably limited to first base. If he can build off the momentum he built from August through November when he faces upper-level pitching in 2022, he'll raise his stock.

I think you have to consider both tools and performance, and performance takes on greater importance as a player gets older and closer to the big leagues. That's not an original thought -- I believe Theo Epstein said something similar at the begin of his Red Sox tenure.

A hitter can have tremendous raw power or speed but it won't matter if he can't make enough contact or get on base consistently, just like a pitcher who has great stuff will need to be able to control and command it. At the same time, pure performance alone isn't enough, especially at lower levels, if the underlying tools aren't there to support it.

I'll acknowledge an organization's ability to develop talent, but more as a tiebreaker than anything else. Talent is the most important attribute.