Phils certain they'll 'straighten out' Castellanos, Nola
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PHILADELPHIA -- Most teams would love to be the Phillies right now.
Following Saturday night’s 8-4 victory over the Marlins, they are in a supremely strong position to make the postseason. They have a three-game lead over the Cubs for the No. 1 National League Wild Card with 21 games to play. FanGraphs gives them a 98 percent chance to make the postseason.
But the Phillies aren’t just trying to make the postseason. They are trying to win the World Series. And their chances improve significantly with Nick Castellanos and Aaron Nola playing well.
- Games remaining: vs. MIA (1), vs. ATL (4), at STL (3), at ATL (3), vs. NYM (4), vs. PIT (3), at NYM (3)
- Standings update: The Phillies (78-63) hold a three-game lead over the Cubs (76-67) for the top NL Wild Card spot. It is essentially a four-game lead because the Phillies won the head-to-head tiebreaker.
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Castellanos and Nola each entered Saturday in slumps -- to varying lengths and degrees. Castellanos had just three hits in his past 29 at-bats, having struck out 11 times and walked twice in an eight-day slump. Phillies manager Rob Thomson bumped him to eighth in the order for the first time since his second full season with the Tigers in 2015. Nola, meanwhile, entered Saturday with a 5.59 ERA in his past seven starts, though his struggles have lasted all season -- his ERA has never dropped below 4.25.
“It’s huge,” Thomson said when asked about the pair’s importance to the team’s postseason success. “Nick’s going through a tough time, great night tonight. He’ll come out of it because he’s a really good hitter. The same thing with Aaron. He’s a really good pitcher. There’s a lot of really good numbers on the back of his baseball card.”
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Castellanos hit a two-out double to plate two runs in the second inning and put the Phillies on the board, 2-0. He also hit a one-out single in the fourth. Thomson said Castellanos will move up in the lineup once he gets straightened out. It worked for Trea Turner, who hit eighth for three consecutive games in early August after struggling for four months. Turner has been one of baseball’s hottest hitters since.
Castellanos, who was one of the Phillies’ only two All-Stars, was unavailable for comment Saturday. Thomson said before the game that Castellanos took the news professionally.
“I’m sure he’s not exactly happy, and I don’t blame him for that,” Thomson said, “but he’s an experienced guy. For the most part, he’s been our most consistent hitter, especially in the first half. But the one thing about Casty, he posts up every day. And he never complains. Ever.”
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Nola is a different, more concerning story. The Phillies spotted him a 5-0 lead on Saturday, but he could not finish the fifth. He allowed five consecutive hard-hit balls as the Marlins cut the lead to one.
“It just kind of unraveled,” Nola said. “I feel like it’s gone that way all year. One big inning does it in for me.”
Nola has a 4.64 ERA this season, which is the second-highest mark of his career. He had a 4.78 ERA as a 23-year-old in 2016.
“It’s not mental,” Nola said. “I felt fine all day, until the fifth. It just unraveled, man.”
He also said it’s also not related to his impending free agency.
“I haven’t really thought about it, honestly,” he said. “I’m kind of worried about this year, and focused on trying to give the team a chance to win and turning that corner in my starts and get to the postseason.”
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The Phillies are better positioned to handle a slump from Castellanos than they are from Nola. Consider last season, when Thomson never hit Castellanos lower than sixth, despite a career-low .694 OPS. But on Saturday, Thomson felt comfortable with Castellanos in the eight-hole.
“It’s a little longer lineup this year,” Thomson said. “And to create balance throughout the lineup, some guys are going to have to hit down there. Look at [Brandon] Marsh’s numbers. Is he really a seven-hole hitter? And putting Casty in eight, you figure [Bryson] Stott’s going to get on base, you figure Marsh is going to get on base. So he’s going to get ample opportunities to produce.”
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There has been more inconsistency in the rotation behind Phillies ace Zack Wheeler. There are Nola’s struggles, of course. He is the presumed No. 2 starter in a postseason series. Taijuan Walker has a 5.20 ERA in his last five starts. Michael Lorenzen has an 8.14 ERA in four starts since his no-hitter. Ranger Suárez, who starts Sunday’s series finale, just returned from the injured list.
The Phillies have 21 games to get Castellanos and Nola right.
“I trust that we’ll straighten this thing out,” Thomson said.