New projected standings for 2020 season are out

Baseball is back, and so are the projections.

FanGraphs’ Dan Szymborski has released a new version of his forecasted 2020 standings using his ZiPS projection model, and obviously there’s a multitude of factors that will make the shortened 60-game season different from the season Szymborski originally projected in February. Not only will they be dealing with the unpredictability of the abbreviated season length itself, teams will now play a regional schedule (East vs. East, Central vs. Central, West vs. West) and thus possess a different strength of opponent from the original 162-game slate. National League teams will now play with the designated hitter for the first time, altering their lineups and roster construction. And player injuries could devastate a team’s chances in a short sprint more than over the typical long haul.

With all that chaos in mind, Szymborski soldiered on and ran the numbers. Here’s a division-by-division look at what his projection sees -- with the caveat that much could still change between now and when first pitches are thrown on July 23 or July 24.

AL East

Projected winner: Yankees (37-23)
The Bronx Bombers are still the team to beat out East, but their incredible depth might become less of an advantage in a sprint. The Yankees suffered the biggest drop in postseason odds -- a 31.2% decrease from a near-October certainty at 97.7% in Szymborski’s February projections to 66.5% odds in version 2.0 -- of any MLB team, and their odds to win the division are now under 50%. The Rays, originally projected to be nine games back of New York, are now forecast to be just two games back with a legitimate shot at the AL East crown. Tampa Bay would at the very least host the AL Wild Card Game, if Szymborski’s estimates bear out. The good news for the Yankees is that Giancarlo Stanton, James Paxton and possibly Aaron Hicks will be healthy and ready to play right from the get-go, though Aaron Judge’s status remains unclear.

The division’s most interesting team, in terms of a range of outcomes, might be the upstart Blue Jays. Toronto went from a longshot (0.6% postseason odds) in Szymborski’s first projection to something closer to a puncher’s chance (15.1%) in the second go-around.

AL Central

Projected winner: Twins (35-25)
Minnesota prevailed in a late-season showdown with the reigning-champion Indians to take home last year’s AL Central division crown, and Szymborski sees those two clubs battling right to the end once again this year. The Twins are ahead by just one game in the new projections, with their odds of winning the Central dropping by more than 20 percentage points in this new reality. Remember, the Twins went up on the Indians by as many as 11 games in the standings in June before Cleveland came back to tie them in mid-August. Minnesota’s additions of Josh Donaldson and Rich Hill -- along with the healthy return of center fielder Byron Buxton -- might prove to be the difference in a race that tight. The Tribe slots in as the AL’s second Wild Card team in Szymborski’s latest projection.

Meanwhile, the White Sox were getting buzz even before the season turned into a sprint, thanks to a super-aggressive offseason that saw them add Yasmani Grandal, Dallas Keuchel and Edwin Encarnación. The South Siders gained the most in postseason odds of any of the 30 clubs, going from a 17.9% chance in February to a 36.2% shot here in June. Szymborski has Chicago finishing just four games back of the Bomba Squad Twins.

AL West

Projected winner: Astros (36-24)
The Astros, even after a tumultuous offseason for them before the coronavirus pandemic hit, are still loaded with talent and still the favorites out West. But, like the Yankees, their projected vice grip is loosened a bit in a frenetic 60-game sprint: Houston’s postseason odds decreased by nearly 30 points (88.1% to 60.9%), as did their division-title odds (74.5% to 44%). One big difference is that Justin Verlander should be able to take the ball for Opening Day after having time to heal from groin surgery.

The A’s likely won’t make it easy for Houston, however. In Szymborski’s projection, Oakland falls a game shy of making a third straight appearance in the AL Wild Card Game.

NL East

Projected winners (tie): Braves and Nationals (34-26)
Tiebreaker game, anyone? ZiPS sees the Braves and Nationals tying for both the NL’s second-best record and the NL East crown, meaning the loser of a possible division tiebreaker contest would at least have hosting privileges in the NL Wild Card Game as a cushion. Szymborski had the reigning World Series champion Nationals as the division winner by just one game in his February projections, and the race between those two could now be even tighter -- not only due to the shorter schedule, but also the nature of that new schedule as both clubs face 20 games against the staunch AL East. The Mets and Phillies, projected to be just three and four games back, respectively, could also put plenty of heat on Washington and Atlanta.

NL Central

Projected winner: Cubs (32-28)
The NL Central once again looks as wide open as any division in baseball, and ZiPS certainly shares that view, projecting the Cubs to just eke out the division crown ahead of a three-way tie for second between the Brewers, Cardinals and Reds. That’s not a far cry from Szymborski’s original February projections, which also saw the North Siders triumphing with just a four-game cushion between them and the fourth-place Reds. The Cubs were perhaps MLB’s quietest team by offseason acquisitions, but better health could simply be the key ingredient that puts them back in the Central’s perch for the first time since 2017.

While this might be the site of the NL’s fiercest competition, it also might yield the most heartbreak; Milwaukee, St. Louis and Cincinnati are all projected to fall one game short of the league’s second and final Wild Card spot after beating up on each other so much.

NL West

Projected winner: Dodgers (38-22)
Los Angeles held both the highest postseason and division-champion odds of any club in Szymborski’s February projection, and while the same holds true in projection 2.0, it’s a little less comfortable than Dodgers fans would like. L.A. went from a 98.8% chance of punching an October ticket -- particularly just days after acquiring Mookie Betts, when Szymborksi ran his first forecast -- to 73% now. That’s just the nature of the “anything can happen” reality we’re about to enter.

The biggest story out West is that the Padres, by at least one early projection, could make their first October appearance in 14 years. Though San Diego’s postseason odds actually dropped nearly 10% from February, when ZiPS forecast the Friars and the Mets facing off in a one-game playoff to decide the second NL Wild Card, the battle royale over in the NL Central would allow them to claim the league’s last playoff spot in the new projections with a 32-28 record. Would that mean we would see top Padres prospects Mackenzie Gore or Luis Patiño throw an inning or two in a winner-take-all game? Sign us up.

ZiPS' new projected postseason picture

AL Division Champions
Yankees (37-23)
Twins (35-25)
Astros (36-24)

AL Wild Card Game
Indians (34-26) at Rays (35-25)

NL Division Champions
Braves (34-26) vs. Nationals (34-26) in NL East tiebreaker
Cubs (32-28)
Dodgers (38-22)

NL Wild Card Game
Padres (32-28) at loser of NL East tiebreaker (Braves or Nationals)