WAS-NYM, 8/15: Odds, Preview, Prediction

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Nationals vs. Mets Odds

Nationals Odds: +200

Mets Odds: -250

Over/Under: 8.5

Time: 7:10 p.m. ET

TV: MLB.TV

Odds as of Tuesday morning and via DraftKings.

Two of Major League Baseball’s teams meet in New York on Tuesday hoping to end their streak of six losses in seven games.

The Nationals suffered a four-game sweep against Philadelphia before dropping two of three in Atlanta over the weekend. On the other side, the Mets lost three of four to Miami and three in a row to Philadelphia to surrender their division lead.

New York hasn’t been able to produce enough offense, while Washington’s bullpen has blown multiple leads at the end of games.

Both starting pitchers have performed well to this point, with Carlos Carrasco making two starts since a return from injury, but they’ve had unsustainably low walk rates. Plus, Washington right-hander Paolo Espino is due for some negative regression based on the quality of contact allowed.

Numbers Not What They Seem for Nats Pitcher

Espino has decent surface-level numbers, but he ranks below average in every Baseball Savant pitching category except walk rate. He generates few strikeouts and no whiffs, but also doesn’t prevent hard contact. Espino has been more lucky than good thus far, and that luck will run out. His 3.66 ERA is good, but his 4.49 xERA and 4.74 FIP are significantly less impressive.

The Washington right-hander had an ERA as low as 2.02 a few weeks ago, but he’s starting to strand fewer runners, allowing more hits and runs. The Mets need a bounce-back game, and their usually low strikeout rate and high contact rate is a bad matchup for Espino.

Washington’s bullpen wasn’t particularly good prior to the Brad Hand and Daniel Hudson deals, but now it really can’t get outs. The Nationals blew two leads to Philadelphia and one to Atlanta in the last weekend. The offense should have Juan Soto fully back in the lineup after he didn’t start Saturday or Sunday, plus the Nationals had an off-day on Monday.

Struggling New York Finds Itself in Tough Spot

The Mets just finished a weekend series in Philadelphia during which they went 1-for-16 with runners in scoring position.

New York scored five total runs, four of them coming on ninth-inning solo home runs when already trailing by multiple runs. New York’s lineup hasn’t scored more than five runs in a week, and has only recorded more than four once. Javier Báez left Sunday’s game with a hip injury, but he’s offered very little offensively since being traded.

At some point, the Mets' offense will turn it around. And a matchup with Espino might be what they need to snap out of their drought. The Mets have had issues with strikeouts all week -- especially in big moments -- but Espino strikes out just 6.6 batters per nine innings.

The Mets faced him once before in a start and didn’t score any runs in five innings, but did manage five hits, so there were baserunners Espino pitched around in that meeting.

Carrasco was excellent in his first two starts with the Mets, logging four and 4 1/3 innings and allowing three total runs to the Reds and Marlins. He didn’t do particularly well in his rehab appearances and his advanced metrics took a decline last year, though.

So, eight innings is not going to change my projection on him much. Washington’s offense has suffered a bit since trading Trea Turner and Josh Harrison, but it's still producing at a decent clip without them. That said, Washington should be able to get to Carrasco.

Nationals-Mets Pick

Unders were a cash cow early in the year at Citi Field, but the market has since adjusted.

I’m not sold on Carrasco maintaining the level he set in his first two starts. The Mets have to start hitting with runners in scoring position at some point, and the Nationals bullpen can’t be trusted to get outs since trading Hudson and Hand at the deadline.

With the wind blowing straight out at 10 mph, this is a good spot to back the over and expect the offenses to finally produce some runs.

I would not play this at nine runs, but at 8.5 and -110 or better, that’s a better wagering approach to this game at Citi Field.

Pick: Over 8.5 Runs (-110 or better)