How Nats may approach new Draft lottery

This story was excerpted from Jessica Camerato's Nationals Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

As the Nationals head to the Winter Meetings next week in San Diego, there will be more on their agenda than free agency, potential trades and the Rule 5 Draft.

The inaugural MLB Draft Lottery is taking place on Tuesday night, and Washington is tied with Oakland and Pittsburgh for the best chance to land the 2023 first overall pick.

Unlike past years when the Draft order was set by records from the previous season, all 18 teams that did not make the playoffs in 2022 are in contention for the No. 1 selection under the new collective bargaining agreement. The first six picks will be determined by the lottery, and the remaining 12 clubs will be assigned their selection in reverse order of record.

Here is an outline of the chances for the No. 1 pick of each lottery-contending team:

1. Nationals (55-107), 16.5%
2. A’s (60-102), 16.5%
3. Pirates (62-100), 16.5%
4. Reds (62-100), 13.2%
5. Royals (65-97), 10.0%
6. Tigers (66-96), 7.5%
7. Rangers (68-94), 5.5%
8. Rockies (68-94), 3.9%
9. Marlins (69-93), 2.7%
10. Angels (73-89), 1.8%
11. D-backs (74-88), 1.4%
12. Cubs (74-88), 1.1%
13. Twins (78-84), 0.9%
14. Red Sox (78-84), 0.8%
15. White Sox (81-81), 0.6%
16. Giants (81-81), 0.5%
17. Orioles (83-79), 0.4%
18. Brewers (86-76), 0.2%

The Nats have not held the first overall pick since 2010, when they selected Bryce Harper. This July, they drafted five-tool outfielder Elijah Green at No. 5 with their highest selection in 12 years.

Who could be the next player to join the Nationals’ organization if they land a top spot? The MLB Pipeline crew has already looked ahead at the top 20 high school and top 20 college prospects for the 2023 Draft. In his recent Inbox, Jonathan Mayo highlighted:

“1. Dylan Crews, OF, Louisiana State: Crews had an 1.153 OPS at LSU last year and has the chance to hit with a ton of power.

“2. Chase Dollander, RHP, Tennessee: Dollander transferred from Georgia Southern to Tennessee and was dominant in 2022, with a four-pitch mix that could land him atop the Draft.

“3. Max Clark, OF, Franklin (Ind.) Community HS: Clark has the best all-around tools in the class, and while his summer showcase performances were a little up and down, he showed off all of his tools, plus his baseball IQ, throughout.”

The lottery results will be announced Tuesday on MLB Network at 8:30 p.m. ET.