10 statistical races that could go down to the wire

No one is catching Ronald Acuña Jr. in the race for the NL stolen base title, and if he can stay in the lineup despite his right-arm injury, Shohei Ohtani has the AL home run crown all but locked up. But many other statistical races are still up for grabs as we approach September.

Here is a subjective look at the 10 most intriguing battles to watch down the stretch.

All numbers below are through Tuesday.

1) NL home runs
Top contenders: Matt Olson, 43 (ATL); Pete Alonso, 39 (NYM)

The last Braves player to lead the NL in homers in a non-shortened season (Marcell Ozuna led the NL with 18 homers in 2020) was Andruw Jones, who hit a franchise-record 51 dingers in 2005. Olson is on pace to break Jones’ record, but Alonso is keeping it close in the NL home run race. The Mets' first baseman, who led the NL and MLB with a rookie-record 53 homers in 2019, has gone deep 13 times in his past 27 games and is on pace to reach the 50-mark again. The last time two hitters from the same league both hit 50 homers in a season? Alex Rodriguez and Jim Thome in 2002.

2) AL ERA
Top contenders: Gerrit Cole, 3.03 (NYY); Kyle Bradish, 3.03 (BAL); Luis Castillo, 3.15 (SEA); Sonny Gray, 3.15 (MIN); Dane Dunning, 3.19 (TEX); George Kirby, 3.23 (SEA); Kevin Gausman, 3.24 (TOR)

This is a crowded field, with eight pitchers within 0.21 of each other. Cole had an AL-leading 2.64 ERA after his first start of August, but he has allowed 12 earned runs over 17 innings in his past three outings and is now tied with Bradish atop the leaderboard. The O’s right-hander, who has posted a 2.50 ERA over his past 18 starts, could become the first Baltimore pitcher to lead the AL in ERA since Mike Boddicker in 1984. It’s been an even longer wait for the Yankees, whose last AL ERA leader was Rudy May in 1980. This race could be closely tied to the AL Cy Young Award -- Cole is the frontrunner, but if he doesn’t finish among the top three in ERA, it’s possible that elusive Cy Young will slip away again.

3) AL batting title
Top contenders: Corey Seager, .343 (TEX); Yandy Díaz, .328 (TB); Bo Bichette, .319 (TOR)

Seager may have a sizable lead over Díaz and Bichette, but he has made two trips to the injured list this season and is on pace to finish with 485 plate appearances, 17 fewer than the 502 it would take to qualify for the batting title. If he falls short of 502, Seager’s place in the batting race would be determined by adding a select number of hitless at-bats to his ledger until he met the minimum requirement of 502 PAs, which could open the door for Díaz or Bichette to pull ahead. (Seager is on pace to finish with 147 hits over 427 at-bats, a .343 average. In that case, adding 17 hitless at-bats would knock his average down to .331 for the purposes of deciding the AL batting title.)

4) NL ERA
Top contenders: Blake Snell, 2.73 (SD); Justin Steele, 2.80 (CHC); Zac Gallen, 3.11 (AZ)

Snell had a 5.40 ERA over his first nine starts this season, but he has put up a sparkling 1.48 ERA in his past 17 outings to take control of the NL ERA lead. Steele, meanwhile, has been as consistent as it gets all season. This is actually the highest his ERA has been in 2023. Gallen, the NL Cy Young Award frontrunner, is still lurking in this race, allowing just four runs in 25 1/3 innings (1.42 ERA) over his past four starts.

5) NL OPS
Top contenders: Mookie Betts, .995 (LAD); Ronald Acuña Jr., .988 (ATL); Freddie Freeman, .982 (LAD); Matt Olson, .971 (ATL)

When July ended, Betts was a distant fourth in this race behind Acuña, Freeman and Olson. Although the other three have all had success in August, Betts has vaulted into first place with an incredible 1.273 OPS this month. With Freeman close behind, the Dodgers could have their first NL OPS leader since Pedro Guerrero in 1985, though Atlanta’s two big bats certainly can’t be counted out.

6) AL hits
Top contenders: Bo Bichette, 148 (TOR); Marcus Semien, 146 (TEX); Julio Rodríguez, 143 (SEA); Bobby Witt Jr., 142 (KC); Shohei Ohtani, 140 (LAA)

Bichette had a 23-hit lead over Semien when he suffered a right knee injury on July 31, but this race has gotten a lot tighter after the Blue Jays shortstop missed 16 games. Four others are now within eight hits or fewer of Bichette, who came off the IL on Aug. 19. That includes Rodríguez, who set an AL/NL record for hits in a four-game span with 17 last week. The Mariners' center fielder has surged up the rankings with 33 hits in his past 15 games. Witt has done the same, collecting 39 hits in his past 23 games. Ohtani, the AL leader with 44 homers, is still in the mix as well. If Bichette can hold off these challengers, it would mark his third straight season topping the AL in hits.

7) NL hits
Top contenders: Luis Arraez, 168 (MIA); Ronald Acuña Jr., 167 (ATL); Freddie Freeman, 163 (LAD)

Arraez (.356 BA) leads Acuña by 23 points in the NL batting race, but the battle for the NL hits crown is much closer. Arraez, Acuña and Freeman rank first, second and third, respectively, in the Majors in hits and are all on pace to record more than 210 knocks this season.

8) AL RBIs
Top contenders: Kyle Tucker, 94 (HOU); Adolis García, 93 (TEX); Shohei Ohtani, 91 (LAA)

While the Rangers and Astros are locked in a tight battle for the AL West crown, so too are Tucker and García for the RBI title, with Ohtani a close third. Tucker, who has taken over first place by driving in 25 runs in his past 20 games, also has a good chance to post a 30/30 season. If he accomplishes both feats, he’d be the seventh player in AL/NL history to win a league RBI title while also going 30/30 in the same year, joining Matt Kemp (2011), Howard Johnson (1991), Jose Canseco (1988), Dale Murphy (1983), Hank Aaron (1963) and Ken Williams (1922).

9) AL saves
Top contenders: Emmanuel Clase, 33 (CLE); Félix Bautista, 32 (BAL); Jordan Romano, 31 (TOR)

Winning back-to-back league saves titles is a rare feat in the volatile world of MLB closers. Since 1987, only five pitchers have done it -- Craig Kimbrel (NL 2011-14), Jim Johnson (AL 2012-13), Jose Valverde (NL 2007-08), Francisco Rodriguez (AL 2005-06) and Lee Smith (NL 1991-92). Clase, who led the AL with 42 saves a year ago, would join that list if he can hold onto his slim lead over Bautista and Romano.

10) NL saves
Top contenders: Alexis Díaz, 34 (CIN); Camilo Doval, 33 (SF); Devin Williams, 30 (MIL)

Five years after his brother, Edwin, led the AL in saves, Díaz could do the same in the NL. He’d be the first Reds pitcher to lead the NL in saves since Jeff Shaw in 1997. Doval is right behind Díaz, though he’s blown each of his past three save chances.