Analyzing prospect assignments to begin '22 

Last week, we found out where some of the game’s best prospects will be opening the 2022 season throughout the Major and Minor Leagues.

After 2021 Opening Day rosters felt scattershot coming off the pandemic-canceled Minor League season the year before, this seemed like a far more traditional edition of assignments, at least when it came to the Minors. The Majors, on the other hand, saw four of the Top 9 overall prospects (Bobby Witt Jr., Julio Rodríguez, Spencer Torkelson, C.J. Abrams) get called to the bigs for the first time to begin the year.

That highlights how player-development decisions aren’t always as simple as putting a player on a conveyor belt and watching him make his way through the levels of affiliated ball, one after the other. Some prospects get put on a fast track. Others need more time and may need to repeat a level. Opening assignments can be instructive to those of us on the outside about how an organization views its players and how much it thinks those prospects can take on from the first pitch of a new campaign.

With that in mind, these are the Top 100 prospects pushed or held back most to open the 2022 season:

Most aggressive

C.J. Abrams, SS, Padres (No. 9): Majors
We’re going to keep this mostly to the Minors, but we have to circle back to the Padres’ fascinating decision to break camp with Abrams on the San Diego roster. The 21-year-old is undoubtedly talented with top-of-the-line speed and a plus hit tool from the left side. He’s also coming off major leg injuries that limited him to only 42 games at Double-A in 2021 and robbed him of a chance to see Triple-A at all. Credit the Padres here with trusting the player and their evaluation of his potential readiness based on his present skills. Still, this doesn’t likely happen if Fernando Tatis Jr. is healthy to begin 2022. Abrams opened the season as the Majors’ third-youngest player behind Wander Franco and Rodríguez.

Jack Leiter, RHP, Rangers (No. 17); Matt McLain, SS, Reds (No. 86): Double-A
We’ll pair these two together because of the similarity in assignments. Leiter (2021 second overall pick) and McLain (17th overall pick) are both rare cases of prospects jumping straight to the Minors’ second-highest level to begin their first full seasons. In fact, only 12 members of the 2021 Draft class have seen Double-A to begin the spring. It shouldn’t come as a huge shock that Leiter is among them. His four-pitch mix looked advanced in his Vanderbilt days, and the Rangers believe the arsenal can play against Texas League bats -- a notion backed up by Leiter’s seven strikeouts in three innings in his Frisco debut last Saturday. McLain, a shortstop out of UCLA, is a little more of a surprise, but he has a speedy hit-over-power profile, the type that can translate quickly to the pros. Even Torkelson debuted in High-A a year ago, so keep an eye on how quickly this former Bruin can push his way to Cincy.

Corbin Carroll, OF, D-backs (No. 19): Double-A
Carroll played all of seven games at High-A in 2021 before suffering a shoulder injury that ended his season in May. Eleven months later, he’s still getting pushed up a level. His dominance with Hillsboro seemed to play a role. The 21-year-old outfielder went 10-for-23 (.435) with five extra-base hits, six walks and three stolen bases in those seven games with the Hops, and as he began his rehab last summer, the D-backs indicated to him that they wanted to challenge him when he returned to the diamond. The 70-grade speedster with a plus hit tool and budding power punched his ticket to Amarillo with a healthy spring. After Carroll spent part of last year working with scouts behind home plate at Arizona’s Major League games, don’t be surprised if he doesn’t let his eyes get too big at Double-A and settles in early with the Sod Poodles.

Jordan Walker, 3B, Cardinals (No. 30): Double-A
St. Louis got aggressive with the 2020 first-rounder last summer, sending him to High-A after only 27 games, and the organization isn’t about to stop in his second full season. The 19-year-old third baseman was the youngest position player on a Double-A Opening Day roster and was the youngest Texas Leaguer, period. Of course, the Cardinals’ top prospect doesn’t hit like a teenager. His raw power is plus-plus from the right side -- he topped out at a 116.2 mph exit velocity at Single-A Palm Beach last summer -- and he exhibits a mature approach that helps him draw walks against tough arms. St. Louis was already busy trying to figure out Nolan Gorman’s positioning since he's blocked by Nolan Arenado at the hot corner. It could have another decision to make on Walker if he keeps pressing the issue like this.

Orelvis Martinez, SS/3B, Blue Jays (No. 37): Double-A
Martinez led all Minor League teenagers last season with 28 home runs over 98 games between Single-A Dunedin and High-A Vancouver, so perhaps we shouldn’t see a move to Double-A as too aggressive. But only 27 of those contests came at the higher level, and he batted just .214 with a 99 wRC+ in 125 plate appearances there. Even though a .197 BABIP dragged down those numbers, it wouldn’t have been out of line for the Jays to let their No. 2 prospect build a more solid High-A resume before pushing him to Double-A. Instead, Toronto clearly believes that Martinez, a potential plus power hitter with improving K rates, could handle New Hampshire from the jump, and the fact that he’s slugging .750 through his first four games only reinforces that belief.

Eury Pérez, RHP, Marlins (No. 40): Double-A
Only one 18-year-old opened the 2022 season at Double-A. To put that further into perspective, zero 18-year-olds opened the 2022 season at High-A. And yet there was Pérez, serving as Pensacola’s Opening Day starter last Friday -- one week shy of his 19th birthday. There’s something to be said for starting the 6-foot-8 right-hander in a warmer climate than he would have experienced at High-A Beloit, but he also just might be ready for Double-A anyway with three potential plus pitches and above-average control. After all, Pérez did strike out 108 in 78 innings while posting a 1.96 ERA and 0.88 WHIP at Single-A and High-A in 2021. If he tackles the upper levels like he did those circuits, he could be the game’s top pitching prospect by the fall.

Least aggressive

Oneil Cruz, SS, Pirates (No. 26): Triple-A

Again, trying to keep this to Minor League decisions, but we’d be remiss not to mention Cruz’s move to Indianapolis this month. On one hand, the 6-foot-7 shortstop saw Triple-A for only six games last season. On the other, he also made his way to the Majors and displayed his plus-plus raw power in a brief two-game span. It wasn’t much of a sample, but if the Pirates thought their No. 3 prospect was ready to see The Show in October, it would stand to reason that he would remain ready in April, barring any significant downturn in the spring that didn’t seem to come. Defense was the early explanation, and Cruz has gotten in a start in left field for the first time in his career. But it will only be so long before his bat needs the challenge of the Majors, regardless of how he looks in the field.

George Kirby, RHP, Mariners (No. 31): Double-A
Seattle fans will recall that Kirby was in the discussion for a Major League rotation spot this spring. Instead, he’ll open two levels below the bigs. Again, weather and overall environment could play a role. Opening him at Triple-A Tacoma (which played at home last week and is in hitter-friendly Albuquerque during its current series) might have led to more inconsistencies than an assignment in warmer Arkansas. Also, Kirby only pitched 26 innings for the Travelers in 2021 due to shoulder fatigue. Still, his increased velocity and pinpoint control were good enough to make him an MLB candidate in Arizona, so that move to the Pacific Coast League might not be far off.

Austin Wells, C, Yankees (No. 95): High-A
After opening in Tampa, the 2020 first-round pick hit a solid .274/.376/.473 with seven homers over 170 plate appearances at High-A Hudson Valley to end his first full season. He then went on to pick up additional experience in the Arizona Fall League and more than held his own with a .344/.456/.578 line over 79 plate appearances in the admittedly hitter-friendly prospect showcase. All the same, the former Arizona Wildcat’s time back in the southwest showed just how advanced his bat was. So it’s a little surprising to see him back in the South Atlantic League to begin 2022. Wells’ defense behind the plate is even more concerning than Cruz’s on the dirt, but like his Pittsburgh counterpart, his offensive game (led by above-average hit and power tools) might need a new challenge early in the spring.