Recent history shows these teams can rally for playoff berths

While getting off to a good start behooves contending teams, it’s not a prerequisite for clubs vying for a postseason spot.

Just look at what the Phillies did from 2022-23. On June 1, 2022, the Phillies were 22-29 and had a 20.5 percent chance of making the postseason, according to FanGraphs’ playoff odds. The Phils would go on to finish 87-75, grab the third National League Wild Card spot and make a run to the World Series (losing in six games to the Astros).

It was a similar story last year, when the Phillies were 25-31 on June 1, had a 23.3% chance to make the postseason and ended up taking the top NL Wild Card spot and making it to the NLCS (losing in seven games against Arizona).

The Phillies aren’t alone. Some recent examples of teams with postseason odds below 30 percent on June 1 include the 2023 Marlins (29-28 record, 26.1%), 2022 Guardians (22-24 record, 17.0%) and 2022 Mariners (21-29 record, 9.0%).

With this in mind, here’s a look at 10 teams with postseason odds -- according to FanGraphs -- that are near or below 30% and what they need to do to make it to the playoffs. Despite their 26-33 record through June 1, the Astros still had a 38.5% chance to make the playoffs and thus were not included.

All records and playoff odds for each team are through June 1.

Cardinals
27-29 record, 30.4% playoff odds

Last season marked the first time the Cardinals finished below .500 since 2007. If they do it again this season, it’d be the first time since 1958-59 that the Cardinals finished with a losing record in consecutive full seasons (St. Louis also finished below .500 in the strike-shortened seasons in 1994-95). Suffice it to say, this is rare territory for a Cardinals team consistently playing competitive baseball.

For the Cardinals to avoid this outcome, they’ll need to improve on both sides of the ball. While St. Louis entered Sunday only two games under .500, their Pythagorean record sat at 23-33 thanks to an offense with the third-fewest runs scored (230) and a pitching staff with the 12th-highest ERA (4.14). Essentially, the Cardinals have outperformed their expected record -- and they’ll likely need to show improvements for their actual record to keep up this pace.

Rangers
28-30 record, 21.0% playoff odds

If the reigning World Series champions make the playoffs this year, they’ll do so on a different path. On June 1 last season, the Rangers were 35-20 and had a 78% chance of making the playoffs. Whereas Texas’ hot start helped make up for their sluggish ending to the regular season (55-52 after June 1), the club will have to flip the script and play well the rest of the way to vie for playoff position in 2024.

Fortunately for the Rangers, there’s plenty of optimism. Their elite offense from last year isn’t hitting on all cylinders yet and there’s no reason to think that Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Adolis García and company can’t vault this Rangers team into a top-five unit. Then there’s the injury component -- Evan Carter, Josh Jung, Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and several other Rangers are currently on the injured list and will provide reinforcements for the club. With the Mariners the only team above .500 in the division, the Rangers could still win the AL West if not snag a Wild Card spot.

D-backs
26-32 record, 20.8% playoff odds

It’s not just the Rangers -- the other 2023 World Series participant has also gotten off to a slow start this season. The D-backs haven’t been above the .500 mark since April 3, when they were 4-3, although they haven’t fallen too far below that mark, either. It’s a considerable contrast to 2023, when Arizona spent most of the season above .500 and snagged the third and final NL Wild Card spot. Those D-backs shocked the world in last year’s playoffs, beating the Brewers, Dodgers and Phillies before falling to the Rangers in the Fall Classic.

It’s been a considerably different story this year for Arizona, which has had to weather injuries to several key players, including Merrill Kelly (shoulder) and Zac Gallen (hamstring). Offseason signing Eduardo Rodriguez has yet to make his D-backs debut, and late addition Jordan Montgomery (5.48 ERA) hasn’t been himself yet. In addition, 2023 NL Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll has struggled considerably, hitting just .192 with a .561 OPS and two home runs. A rebound from Carroll and Montgomery and the returns of Kelly, Gallen and Rodriguez should help the D-backs make a run at a postseason spot.

Blue Jays
27-30 record, 20.2% playoff odds

While Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette have popped up in trade talks, Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins downplayed the idea that Toronto would explore trading its franchise cornerstones. With that being said, the Blue Jays will need both players at the top of their game if they plan to contend in an ultra-competitive AL East. It’s been less of an issue for Vlad Jr. -- who is running a 137 wRC+ and .389 OBP -- than it has been for Bichette and his career-worst 81 wRC+.

They’re hardly the only important hitters in a Blue Jays lineup that has scored 234 runs, tied for the sixth fewest of any team in baseball. Danny Jansen (150 wRC+), Davis Schneider (132) and Daulton Varsho (118) have helped carry the load for an offense that has received little production from George Springer (81 wRC+), Kevin Kiermaier (63), Justin Turner (88) and Bichette.

Rays
28-31 record, 20.1% playoff odds

What a difference a year makes. Last year at this time, the Rays were 40-18 and had a 96.8% chance to make the playoffs -- in part due to Tampa Bay tying a Modern Era (since 1900) record with a 13-0 start. Even this current version of the Rays looks different than the team that ended up finishing the 2023 season with 99 wins and the top AL Wild Card spot.

For the Rays to get back into contention, they’ll need their top bats to start producing like they did last season. Yandy Díaz and Randy Arozarena combined for an .858 OPS last season, a figure that has dropped to .636 this season. With those two performing well below their excellent levels last season, the Rays have the 10th-fewest runs scored (243) and are tied for the sixth-lowest OPS (.667) in MLB.

Tigers
28-30 record, 16.5% playoff odds

If the Tigers are going to make a run, it will likely be driven by a starting rotation led by AL Cy Young Award contender Tarik Skubal. The lefty has a 1.97 ERA and 86 strikeouts in 73 innings so far, and he’s been joined by Reese Olson (2.48 ERA) and Jack Flaherty (94 K’s, most in the AL) at the forefront of Detroit’s starting five. But the Tigers’ top starters can’t do it all -- Detroit’s .682 OPS is tied for 20th in MLB, and the club's best hitter, Kerry Carpenter, is out indefinitely with a lumbar spine stress fracture. On Monday, former No. 1 Draft pick Spencer Torkelson was optioned to Triple-A after struggling to start the year.

There’s still a path to competition for the Tigers in the AL Central, although they currently trail the first-place Guardians by 9 1/2 games. Currently 2 1/2 games out of an AL Wild Card spot, the Tigers could certainly use improvement from starters Casey Mize (4.70 ERA) and Kenta Maeda (6.25 ERA). If a few more things go right, Detroit could improve its postseason odds significantly.

Red Sox
30-29 record, 15.1% playoff odds

The Red Sox rotation has been the premier reason for Boston’s above-.500 record through Saturday, but with Garrett Whitlock out until 2025 and Kutter Crawford beginning to struggle, that early success might not last. While the Red Sox are tied with the Rays and ahead of the Blue Jays in the AL East standings, their postseason odds are in fact lower than their two division foes’ chances.

Boston’s offense has been decimated by injuries, with Trevor Story (shoulder) out for the season and Triston Casas (rib cage) and Masataka Yoshida (thumb) missing significant time. Getting Casas, Yoshida, Tyler O'Neill (knee) and Vaughn Grissom (hamstring) back from the injured list in a timely fashion would help the Red Sox considerably. There’s still plenty of time to make a run, and the Sox have played well enough to compete so far in 2024.

Mets
24-34 record, 10.7% playoff odds

On the heels of a disappointing 2023 season, the Mets are off to another rough start in ’24. After last year’s Trade Deadline deals of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, the Mets mostly beefed up their roster over the offseason with short-term deals to get back to competitive baseball. With the return of Edwin Díaz and expected improvements from youngsters like Francisco Alvarez, it didn’t take much to think that the Mets could be a contender.

Instead, the Mets find themselves well below .500 and have several key players (Kodai Senga, Díaz and Alvarez) on the injured list. In a division with the Phillies and Braves, it’ll take plenty for the Mets to get back into contention beyond getting healthy. One key area that’s crushed the Mets is closing out late leads. No team has lost more games (10) when leading after seven innings than the Mets, who have four more such losses than the next closest team (Tigers, 6).

Pirates
27-31 record, 10.5% playoff odds

It might be a stretch for the Pirates to make the playoffs this season but there’s no shortage of excitement about their young group of players. Paul Skenes, Jared Jones and Mitch Keller headline a rotation that is tied for the 10th-best ERA (3.57) in MLB, and Oneil Cruz is one of the most exciting position players in the sport.

While there’s undeniable excitement about what this team could do long term, it’s possible that the Pirates could squeeze into the playoffs this season. To do so, Pittsburgh will need an offense that ranks near the bottom of the league in most metrics to approach a league-average unit. With Skenes, Jones and company leading the rotation, the Pirates might not need much more than an average offense to contend.

Reds
25-33 record, 9.2% playoff odds

The Reds were one of baseball’s biggest surprises last season, making the jump from 62 wins in 2022 to 82 wins and vying for a Wild Card spot. That’s what makes the Reds’ current position in the playoff picture so surprising. It’s been a collective struggle on both sides of the ball, with the offense tied for 18th in runs scored (259) and pitchers ranking in the middle of the pack or worse in various metrics.

Of all the issues plaguing the Reds, their decline in power has been the most glaring. For a team that plays half of its games in Great American Ball Park -- the most favorable destination for home run hitters by some metrics -- a .369 slugging percentage, the seventh lowest in MLB, will have to improve. If they can get closer to their .420 SLG from last year, the Reds could find themselves back in contention.